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  How will the current chaos affect far-right parties in Europe?
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Author Topic: How will the current chaos affect far-right parties in Europe?  (Read 899 times)
#TheShadowyAbyss
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« on: November 18, 2015, 03:19:16 am »

Particularly Front National, UKIP, Danish People's Party? With elections in France coming up how do you think the right such as the Republican party and the far-right such as the National Front will do?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2015, 03:21:22 am »

As for the FP: it has likely peaked at a record polling level of 32-33% right now.

Also, there's not really much room left to grow for them, because the SPVP government has presented a comprehensive education reform yesterday, which could bring some protest voters back into their camp. And the next federal elections are only in 2018 ...
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coloniac
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« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2015, 05:38:05 am »

PVV and FPO are the largest parties in their respective countries, according to the polls. It is unlikely that the PVV will govern given their political self-inflicted isolation that dates back to when they collapsed the right-wing Rutte cabinet.

Front National are still only going to manage at best a second round run at the presidency. I expect them to win the regionals though. The Republican Party is going to focus on identity issues, so it may make up ground at the expense of their centrist factions. The biggest risk for 2017 is if a large part of the French Left decides to stay home in the second round, in the event of a Sarkozy/Le Pen run-off. But even so I think too many people have too much to lose by voting in a questionable party.

Denmark and Sweden will probably swing rightwards but not enough to displace their political establishment.

UKIP can't win sh**t with that electoral system.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
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« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2015, 02:28:18 pm »

Front National are still only going to manage at best a second round run at the presidency. I expect them to win the regionals though. The Republican Party is going to focus on identity issues, so it may make up ground at the expense of their centrist factions. The biggest risk for 2017 is if a large part of the French Left decides to stay home in the second round, in the event of a Sarkozy/Le Pen run-off. But even so I think too many people have too much to lose by voting in a questionable party.

Would agree with the 1st sentence, though you never know what can happen within 1,5 years, French like surprises...

And well, making the 2nd run wouldn't be 'at best', you never know what consequences this could have beyond the electoral results.

'FN winning regionals' doesn't mean much, it's a matter of how many regions you can have in the end, mainly 3 regions in which they can do something, and 1 they could very well get.

But for sure the result of those last elections after what happened would be, well, interesting, who knows what it could give...

And there's still 18 and 25 days till that, sometimes can look like an eternity...

A poll yesterday said that 84% of French approved the new security measures, even if that tightens freedom, can give a little indication on the mood.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2015, 05:07:21 pm »
« Edited: November 20, 2015, 09:18:37 pm by DavidB. »

Agree with JosepBroz's analysis.

- The Danish election took place only a few months ago, so no new elections there anytime soon, except if the government collapses of course. However, DF doesn't seem to be improving in the polls.
- FN will probably reach the second round of the French presidentials and lose it, unless some more terrorist attacks take place (which can absolutely not be ruled out), in which case everything is possible.
- UKIP won't win anything and the British elections just took place anyway, next ones are in 2020 only.
- PVV will probably do very well in the next Dutch elections, yet isn't likely to be in any coalition.
- VB might improve in the next Belgian elections, but no new elections anytime soon and cordon sanitaire is still in place.
- Finnish PS is currently in government and is being decimated in the polls, becoming less popular by the day.
- SVP just won the Swiss elections.
- FP will be doing very well in the next elections and might be in next Austrian coalition, together with the VP.
- Frp are improving in the polls, but they are in the current unpopular Norwegian center-right government. Next government is likely to be formed by the left again.
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