NH-PPP: Trump ahead, Christie surging. Clinton and Sanders in close race.

[Senator Cris]

Trump 27%
Cruz 13%
Rubio 11%
Christie 10%
Carson 9%
Kasich 8%
Fiorina 6%
Bush 5%
Paul 4%
Huckabee 1%
Pataki 1%
Santorum 1%
Graham <1%
Gilmore <1%

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Clinton 44%
Sanders 42%
O'Malley 8%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_120315.pdf

[Maxwell]

Looks like my estimate really wasn't far off - Trump widely ahead, Christie in 4th, Kasich falling around/below Carson, Bush absymal. I messed up Cruz v. Rubio, I expected Rubio to be ahead of Cruz, and I underestimated Fiorina a bit I guess (though she's still way down enough for it not to matter).

[Rockefeller GOP]

Not sure I buy this ... I don't have trouble believing Trump is in the lead, but Cruz in second is fishy.

[Mr. Morden]

4-way matchups:

Trump 32%
Rubio 25%
Cruz 18%
Carson 13%

Trump 32%
Rubio 23%
Cruz 20%
Bush 18%

3-way matchups:

Trump 35%
Rubio 32%
Cruz 22%

Cruz 33%
Rubio 32%
Bush 21%

2-way matchups:

Trump 54%
Bush 38%

Cruz 46%
Carson 34%

Rubio 48%
Carson 37%

Trump 46%
Carson 39%

Rubio 43%
Cruz 37%

Cruz 44%
Trump 41%

Rubio 45%
Trump 45%

[Lief 🗽]

^^^Even in pro-establishment NH there's little evidence that a majority of the Republican electorate is anti-Trump.

[Tender Branson]

Thank Goodness that sh*tty Gravis poll (46-25 Clinton lead) gets kicked out of the RCP average now with this poll.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Christie's surge is bad news for Rubio and the establishment.
The fact that Kasich has decided to make New Hampshire his last stand complicates things even more for them.

[Holmes]

Christie's surge is bad news for Rubio and the establishment.
The fact that Kasich has decided to make New Hampshire his last stand complicates things even more for them.

Yup. It's allowing Cruz to take second place when a candidate like him really has no business being in second place in New Hampshire.

[RI]

Christie's surge is bad news for Rubio and the establishment.
The fact that Kasich has decided to make New Hampshire his last stand complicates things even more for them.

Yup. It's allowing Cruz to take second place when a candidate like him really has no business being in second place in New Hampshire.

If Ron Paul can take second in NH in 2012, why can't Cruz?

[Skye]

The politicians are having a free for all battle while Trump enjoys a nice picnic at the top of the hill.

[Likely Voter]

Wow, Bush (who has spent the most) is now polling the worst of the four main 'establishment' candidates. It's unlikely any of them will get out before NH but I suspect after NH there will be a lot of pressure for all but the top scorer to get out of the way.

[RJEvans]

These 2-way, 3-way and 4-way matchups are scary for the Republicans. It means even if some of the second and third tier candidates drop out Trump can still win this nomination outright. It makes it harder, but such a contest will go to the wire.

[Eraserhead]

Last PPP poll was Clinton +8 in NH. Surprising.

Also, O'Malley at 8%. I assume he's taking support from HRC.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Christie's surge is bad news for Rubio and the establishment.
The fact that Kasich has decided to make New Hampshire his last stand complicates things even more for them.

Yup. It's allowing Cruz to take second place when a candidate like him really has no business being in second place in New Hampshire.

If Ron Paul can take second in NH in 2012, why can't Cruz?

Cruz doesn't have independents and anti-war democrats crossing over to vote for him in the primary like Paul did.

[PPT Spiral]

Christie's surge is bad news for Rubio and the establishment.
The fact that Kasich has decided to make New Hampshire his last stand complicates things even more for them.

Yup. It's allowing Cruz to take second place when a candidate like him really has no business being in second place in New Hampshire.

If Ron Paul can take second in NH in 2012, why can't Cruz?

Cruz doesn't have independents and anti-war democrats crossing over to vote for him in the primary like Paul did.

No, but he does benefit from the massive vote-splitting among establishment types.

[Holmes]

Christie's surge is bad news for Rubio and the establishment.
The fact that Kasich has decided to make New Hampshire his last stand complicates things even more for them.

Yup. It's allowing Cruz to take second place when a candidate like him really has no business being in second place in New Hampshire.

If Ron Paul can take second in NH in 2012, why can't Cruz?

Cruz doesn't have independents and anti-war democrats crossing over to vote for him in the primary like Paul did.

No, but he does benefit from the massive vote-splitting among establishment types.

^ This.

Honestly who was Paul's competition for second place in New Hampshire in 2012? Two evangelicals, and that loser Huntsman? And the fact that Huntsman got 17% of the vote is telling with respect to how little New Hampshire primary voters cared about Romney's competition.

[Senator Cris]

Trump 27%
Establishment (Rubio/Christie/Kasich/Fiorina/Bush/Pataki/Graham) 41%

In October:

Trump 28%
Establishment 43%

Trump lost only a point. It's clear that if the establishment wants to defeat Trump, they should force various candidates to drop out and rally behind one or two. The next debate (Dec. 15) will be very important for this.
First of all, there are people like Pataki, Graham, Santorum that should drop out regardless of the next debate.
Then, if both Bush, Kasich and Fiorina will do poorly in next debate and in following polls, I might see the establishment asking all of them to drop out.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Cruz wins in Iowa and comes second in New Hampshire then he becomes the tentative front-runner. The establishment will be forced to support him or else face irrelevancy with Trump.

But the general is another beast altogether. As Mike Tomasky wrote, most of his senate colleagues will be much more comfortable with president Hillary than president Cruz.   

[Ljube]

But the general is another beast altogether. As Mike Tomasky wrote, most of his senate colleagues will be much more comfortable with president Hillary than president Cruz.  

And most of Americans.

[weixiaobao]

Love it.  Christie, Kasich, Rubio, Bush.  Even to the extend, Cruz and Carson.

Look like the anti Trump forces have get to aggravated around 1 or 2 people yet.

Keep this up til late January.

[henster]

NH women love Hillary.

She only has a one point lead with women in this poll.

[JonathanSwift]

Favorability Ratings (DEM)
Sanders: 78-12 (+66)
Clinton: 68-22 (+46)
O'Malley: 38-14 (+24)

Favorability Ratings (GOP)
Christie: 61-22 (+39)
Cruz: 53-25 (+28)
Rubio: 54-26 (+28)
Fiorina: 54-27 (+27)
Carson: 52-30 (+22)
Huckabee: 46-32 (+14)
Trump: 50-39 (+11)
Paul: 42-36 (+6)
Kasich: 38-35 (+3)
Bush: 38-45 (-7)
Graham: 29-38 (-9)
Santorum: 26-41 (-15)
Gilmore: 5-23 (-18)
Pataki: 16-45 (-29)

[Rockefeller GOP]

NH women love Hillary.

She only has a one point lead with women in this poll.

You think that fact will stop his narrative?  I would say some NH girl must have cheated on TN Vol in the past, but I'm 99% sure he's a virgin.

[Fusionmunster]

Last PPP poll was Clinton +8 in NH. Surprising.

Also, O'Malley at 8%. I assume he's taking support from HRC.

Nobody actually took support from anybody. Each Dem candidate gained support. It seems like Biden supporters overwhelmingly went to Sanders however.

[Eraserhead]

Last PPP poll was Clinton +8 in NH. Surprising.

Also, O'Malley at 8%. I assume he's taking support from HRC.

Nobody actually took support from anybody. Each Dem candidate gained support. It seems like Biden supporters overwhelmingly went to Sanders however.

Yeah, saw that after getting a chance to look at the details. Interesting.