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Author Topic: NH - PPP - Clinton generally underperforming Obama '12  (Read 2147 times)
Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« on: December 07, 2015, 02:34:05 pm »

Sanders/Rubio - 45/41
Sanders/Carson - 46/41
Sanders/Fiorina - 48/40
Sanders/Bush - 47/38
Sanders/Trump - 49/40
Sanders/Cruz - 48/38

Clinton/Rubio - 44/43
Clinton/Fiorina - 45/44
Clinton/Bush - 43/41
Clinton/Carson - 45/43
Clinton/Trump - 47/41
Clinton/Cruz - 47/39

But I thought Pubs were supposed to lose NH in a landslide......

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/12/hassanayotte-knotted-sanders-strongest-in-general.html
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King
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« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2015, 02:37:47 pm »

Romney was up by 4 points on Obama in Dec 2011.  Clinton is doing at worst, 5 points better than Obama was at this point v Rubio and at best 12 points better than Obama was at this point v, Cruz.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #2 on: December 07, 2015, 02:42:11 pm »

Romney was up by 4 points on Obama in Dec 2011.  Clinton is doing at worst, 5 points better than Obama was at this point v Rubio and at best 12 points better than Obama was at this point v, Cruz.
I am of course referring to the state's final result, not 2011 polls.
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King
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« Reply #3 on: December 07, 2015, 02:44:35 pm »

Which is a dumb thing to do. The challengers are oversaturating the market, so of course the candidate representing the incumbency is going to be down.

4 years ago, you would look at the polls and say, ha ha! I thought Romney had no chance here! He had no chance here. It was easily Obama in the end.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #4 on: December 07, 2015, 02:45:33 pm »

OMG GUYZ ITZ A TOS AHP!!!!!!!111!!!

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=143901.15
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=142086.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=142146.0

In all seriousness, can we talk about states that are actually going to be competitive now? Virtually all the undecideds and Sanders supporters in NH will vote for Clinton in the end. Nothing to see here, move along. Also, a generic R would probably lose the women's vote in the state by 20+ points while Trump/Carson/Cruz would lose it by 40 points against Clinton. So yeah... there is no path to victory for the GOP here. The Vermontification of NH continues unabated and that's EXCELLENT NEWS! Cheesy
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #5 on: December 07, 2015, 02:51:38 pm »

OMG GUYZ ITZ A TOS AHP!!!!!!!111!!!

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=143901.15
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=142086.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=142146.0

In all seriousness, can we talk about states that are actually going to be competitive now? Virtually all the undecideds and Sanders supporters in NH will vote for Clinton in the end. Nothing to see here, move along. Also, a generic R would probably lose the women's vote in the state by 20+ points while Trump/Carson/Cruz would lose it by 40 points against Clinton. So yeah... there is no path to victory for the GOP here. The Vermontification of NH continues unabated and that's EXCELLENT NEWS! Cheesy

Why?  So our party can continue to let our association with the South sink our electoral chances?
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #6 on: December 07, 2015, 03:01:09 pm »

Romney was up by 4 points on Obama in Dec 2011.  Clinton is doing at worst, 5 points better than Obama was at this point v Rubio and at best 12 points better than Obama was at this point v, Cruz.

Obama was up by 6.8 in the RCP average on this day in 2011.
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RFayette
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« Reply #7 on: December 07, 2015, 03:04:09 pm »

Romney was up by 4 points on Obama in Dec 2011.  Clinton is doing at worst, 5 points better than Obama was at this point v Rubio and at best 12 points better than Obama was at this point v, Cruz.

Obama was up by 6.8 in the RCP average on this day in 2011.

But the polls you linked to show a string of Romney leads until January....
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #8 on: December 07, 2015, 03:12:42 pm »

Romney was up by 4 points on Obama in Dec 2011.  Clinton is doing at worst, 5 points better than Obama was at this point v Rubio and at best 12 points better than Obama was at this point v, Cruz.

Obama was up by 6.8 in the RCP average on this day in 2011.

But the polls you linked to show a string of Romney leads until January....

I guess there must have been a pollster or pollsters that got discredited and removed from the database for some reason; Huffpost Pollster doesn't go back further than Jan 1, but it also shows a similarly large Obama lead while all the polls it lists show Romney leads.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #9 on: December 07, 2015, 04:01:51 pm »

Hillary takes NH in '16, obviously.

But, competitive numbers for GOP. Nothing for them to drop their heads about. All there is to it for this one, folks. :-)
« Last Edit: December 07, 2015, 04:54:11 pm by EliteLX »Logged
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jfern
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« Reply #10 on: December 07, 2015, 05:16:02 pm »

When even PPP has Bernie doing an average of 3.6 points better than Hillary in the general, he's definitely the stronger candidate.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: December 07, 2015, 05:20:02 pm »

When even PPP has Bernie doing an average of 3.6 points better than Hillary in the general, he's definitely the stronger candidate.

PLEASE, STOP!!!
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Holmes
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« Reply #12 on: December 07, 2015, 05:22:10 pm »

When even PPP has Bernie doing an average of 3.6 points better than Hillary in the general, he's definitely the stronger candidate.

PLEASE, STOP!!!

Honestly, who cares? Let him forever believe that Sanders would be the best candidate ever in the general. It's not like we'll ever know for certain either way because Sanders is so strong that he can't even win the primary against Hillary.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: December 07, 2015, 06:03:14 pm »

Can you imagine any would-be Sanders voters voting for anyone other than Hillary Clinton should the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton? I don't see a Ralph Nader this time. 
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #14 on: December 07, 2015, 06:04:43 pm »

When even PPP has Bernie doing an average of 3.6 points better than Hillary in the general, he's definitely the stronger candidate.

PLEASE, STOP!!!

Honestly, who cares? Let him forever believe that Sanders would be the best candidate ever in the general. It's not like we'll ever know for certain either way because Sanders is so strong that he can't even win the primary against Hillary.

Seriously though, even winfield didn't have such a hard-on for Romney.
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Torie
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« Reply #15 on: December 07, 2015, 06:09:13 pm »

OMG GUYZ ITZ A TOS AHP!!!!!!!111!!!

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=143901.15
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=142086.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=142146.0

In all seriousness, can we talk about states that are actually going to be competitive now? Virtually all the undecideds and Sanders supporters in NH will vote for Clinton in the end. Nothing to see here, move along. Also, a generic R would probably lose the women's vote in the state by 20+ points while Trump/Carson/Cruz would lose it by 40 points against Clinton. So yeah... there is no path to victory for the GOP here. The Vermontification of NH continues unabated and that's EXCELLENT NEWS! Cheesy

I am beginning to think that you are to NH, what Lief is to Trump. Think about that one! Tongue
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Former Democrat
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« Reply #16 on: December 07, 2015, 06:12:14 pm »

Good numbers for the GOP against Hillary as long Rubio, Fiorina or Bush is the nominee! Hillary at 38/55 in this blue swing state means she'll never will win this state!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #17 on: December 07, 2015, 06:16:19 pm »

Can you imagine any would-be Sanders voters voting for anyone other than Hillary Clinton should the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton? I don't see a Ralph Nader this time. 

I'll probably be voting for Jill Stein but I'm not expecting many to join me.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #18 on: December 07, 2015, 06:18:07 pm »

Can you imagine any would-be Sanders voters voting for anyone other than Hillary Clinton should the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton? I don't see a Ralph Nader this time. 

Jill Stein of the green party is running again. Last time, there was no real left-wing opposition to the democratic candidate, so she didn't get very far. But this time, Sanders is generating lots of anger at establishment dems, and he may not enthusiastically endorse Hillary when he loses. So there could be real room for Jill Stein to sweep in and get a few of those currently supporting Sanders. Even just getting to 2 or 3 percent statewide could hand NH to republicans.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #19 on: December 07, 2015, 08:27:59 pm »

NH = safe D.
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jfern
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« Reply #20 on: December 07, 2015, 08:38:04 pm »

When even PPP has Bernie doing an average of 3.6 points better than Hillary in the general, he's definitely the stronger candidate.

PLEASE, STOP!!!

Honestly, who cares? Let him forever believe that Sanders would be the best candidate ever in the general. It's not like we'll ever know for certain either way because Sanders is so strong that he can't even win the primary against Hillary.

Seriously though, even winfield didn't have such a hard-on for Romney.

So are all of you saying that general election matchups and favorable ratings mean nothing?
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Nyvin
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« Reply #21 on: December 07, 2015, 09:08:59 pm »

Obama was an incumbent in 2012 though,   also he didn't have primary challengers.   That's gotta count for something...
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #22 on: December 07, 2015, 11:20:52 pm »

But I think Clinton is overperforming Obama from 4 years ago.

And Sanders is overperforming Clinton right now.
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henster
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« Reply #23 on: December 08, 2015, 12:49:44 am »

Fav/unfav 38/55 for Hillary Clinton, no one has explained how she is going to recover from these numbers, especially since what's ahead in the GE is a barrage of negative ads against her. The negative ads haven't started so that # could be even worse months from now. Its difficult to to turn out and vote for someone you don't like, people liked Obama, Bush Jr., Bill Clinton, Reagan etc.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #24 on: December 08, 2015, 03:57:13 am »

FYI, TNvolunteer is secretly a Republican operative in NH, hoping to make Democrats take the state for granted. NH is a Lean D state, but Democrats can't get cocky. They need to spend some time here, especially if they want to win the senate and gubernatorial races here.
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