Iowa (CNN/ORC) - Trump 33% & Cruz 20%; Clinton 54% & Sanders 36%

[/]

Article

Full Results

REPUBLICANS:

Trump 33
Cruz 20
Carson 16
Rubio 11
Bush 4
Fiorina 3
Paul 3
Christie 2
Huckabee 2
Kasich 1
Santorum 1
Gilmore 0
Graham 0
Pataki 0

DEMOCRATS:

Clinton 54
Sanders 36
O'Malley 4

[Comrade Funk]

Lol Rubio. The crazies are the establishment.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Lol Monmouth was so off. Not even Trump, it's just Rubio is obviously behind the others.

[EliteLX]

annnnnnnnddd nevermind.

[/]

Monmouth be trollin

[EliteLX]

Monmouth be trollin

[Fusionmunster]

Democrat Numbers

Hillary Clinton: 54%
Bernie Sanders: 36%
Martin O'Malley: 4%

[Lief 🐋]

Thank goodness we can now throw Monmouth safely in the trash where it belongs!

[RogueBeaver]

LOL CNN with an "adults" poll less than 2 months out.

[Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon]

Thank goodness we can now throw Monmouth safely in the trash where it belongs!

[Dr. RI]

LOL CNN with an "adults" poll less than 2 months out.

This poll uses likely caucus goers.

[Pandaguineapig]

Cnn polls are garbage outliers what's new

[Holmes]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Landslide Lyndon]

LOL CNN with an "adults" poll less than 2 months out.

This poll uses likely caucus goers.

LOL, TRUMP deniers are getting desperate.

[Likely Voter]

The CNN article notes how the different LV models work...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Skye]

Trump dominating as usual. Nothing to see here.

[Eraserhead]

If Trump and Clinton both win Iowa, these party primaries may be over with pretty quickly.

[Volrath50]

If Trump and Clinton both win Iowa, these party primaries may be over with pretty quickly.

I almost wonder whether, if Trump manages to win both Iowa and NH, you will see people declaring it to be the end of his candidacy, or saying people aren't paying attention yet, because Super Tuesday is still a month away or something like that.

[mencken]

Since when did CNN become the gold standard for Iowa polling (given that two other credible polls show a much closer race?)

[Landslide Andy]

Democrat Numbers

Hillary Clinton: 54%
Bernie Sanders: 36%
Martin O'Malley: 4%

#Dominating

[Mr. Morden]

Urban/rural split on Carson is huge.  He’s at 21% in rural areas and 6% in urban areas.  If that matches how he does in other parts of the country, then he’s kind of screwed, delegate-wise, since the Republican delegate allocation is so slanted towards Democratic-leaning districts.  He doesn’t really have that much chance to pick up delegates in states where he comes in 2nd, 3rd, or 4th statewide.  You typically have to win some CDs in order to get delegates.

Anyway, Trump leads among all demographic groups except white evangelicals.

white evangelicals:

Cruz 26%
Trump 24%
Carson 20%
Rubio 12%

all others:

Trump 40%
Cruz 16%
Carson 12%
Rubio 11%

[Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon]

Urban/rural split on Carson is huge.  He’s at 21% in rural areas and 6% in urban areas.  If that matches how he does in other parts of the country, then he’s kind of screwed, delegate-wise, since the Republican delegate allocation is so slanted towards Democratic-leaning districts.  He doesn’t really have that much chance to pick up delegates in states where he comes in 2nd, 3rd, or 4th statewide.  You typically have to win some CDs in order to get delegates.

Anyway, Trump leads among all demographic groups except white evangelicals.

white evangelicals:

Cruz 26%
Trump 24%
Carson 20%
Rubio 12%

all others:

Trump 40%
Cruz 16%
Carson 12%
Rubio 11%

Carson should drop out and endorse Cruz.

[Why]

Great, we have two polls telling us two completely different things about how much Trump is polling. Might go and read some tea leaves and see what they say.

[Deranged California Suburbanite]

Democrat Numbers

Hillary Clinton: 54%
Bernie Sanders: 36%
Martin O'Malley: 4%

#Dominating

#Clintonunder60

#Its2008alloveragain

Not insurmountable, but it would take a lot for Bernie to win Iowa.

[Badger]

Trump dominating as usual. Nothing to see here.

In IA it's sort of new, not to mention crucial.

As previously noted, if Trump wins IA he's overwhelmingly likely to be the nominee .