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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  NC: PPP: Clinton trails all but Bush, Sanders trails all but Fiorina
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Author Topic: NC: PPP: Clinton trails all but Bush, Sanders trails all but Fiorina  (Read 1411 times)
Dr. RI
realisticidealist
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« on: December 08, 2015, 12:01:52 pm »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_120815.pdf

Clinton 43, Bush 43
Clinton 43, Cruz 47
Clinton 43, Trump 47
Clinton 42, Fiorina 44
Clinton 42, Rubio 46
Clinton 41, Carson 47

Sanders 44, Trump 46
Sanders 42, Cruz 44
Sanders 40, Fiorina 40
Sanders 39, Bush 42
Sanders 39, Rubio 44
Sanders 37, Carson 46
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The Unbearable Inevitability of Nevada going Democratic
xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: December 08, 2015, 12:09:00 pm »

Not bad numbers for Clinton or Sanders, considering Republicans have held larger leads in previous NC polls. Lean R, but if this state really does end up being competitive, that's good news for the Democrats in and of itself.
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Devils30
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« Reply #2 on: December 08, 2015, 02:30:03 pm »

In the end I think Trump and possibly Cruz will say enough stupid things to lose the state to Hillary. That said, it will not be a tipping point and is the Dems pretty clear 347th electoral vote.

Also get the feeling that southern whites will hold up well for Cruz/Trump while northern whites would swing D, possibly considerably in rich suburbs. NC also doesn't have many Hispanics and black turnout could fall slightly, although more minorities will be eligible voters in 2016 than 2012. A state like FL is a bigger risk for Trump/Cruz where Hispanics will be like 3% greater and whites 3% less than 2012 and Romney already got 39% of them (mostly older Cubans).
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #3 on: December 09, 2015, 04:09:49 pm »

Sad that there aren't too many D leads, but the margins are decent... definitely potential.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2015, 04:46:58 pm »

Yeah, Romney had some big leads against Obama at various points last cycle and we saw how close that match-up ended up being. My prediction is that Clinton would beat Cruz and Trump here, but lose to Rubio.
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CocaineMitch'sCartel
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« Reply #5 on: December 09, 2015, 05:54:29 pm »

Do you guys think NC will continue to trend Democratic? It has been trending Democratic quickly since the year 2000. Hillary will get less black and youth turnout and support than Obama did, but she will rebound among working class whites. Hard to say which one will overpower the other.

Here is how NC voted relative to the nation sine 2000 :

2000: R + 12.33

2004 : R + 9.94

2008 : R + 7

2012 : R + 6

If the trend continues, and Hillary wins by 5 points nationally, then NC should be winnable.
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The Unbearable Inevitability of Nevada going Democratic
xingkerui
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« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2015, 06:27:38 pm »

Do you guys think NC will continue to trend Democratic? It has been trending Democratic quickly since the year 2000. Hillary will get less black and youth turnout and support than Obama did, but she will rebound among working class whites. Hard to say which one will overpower the other.

Here is how NC voted relative to the nation sine 2000 :

2000: R + 12.33

2004 : R + 9.94

2008 : R + 7

2012 : R + 6

If the trend continues, and Hillary wins by 5 points nationally, then NC should be winnable.

It could, but I highly doubt that it'll be anything like a tipping-point state in 2016. It's winnable if Democrats win the popular vote by a sizable margin, otherwise it will probably stay Republican. Democrats haven't had much luck here since 2008.
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Holmes
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« Reply #7 on: December 09, 2015, 06:48:50 pm »

Do you guys think NC will continue to trend Democratic? It has been trending Democratic quickly since the year 2000. Hillary will get less black and youth turnout and support than Obama did, but she will rebound among working class whites. Hard to say which one will overpower the other.

Here is how NC voted relative to the nation sine 2000 :

2000: R + 12.33

2004 : R + 9.94

2008 : R + 7

2012 : R + 6

If the trend continues, and Hillary wins by 5 points nationally, then NC should be winnable.

It could, but I highly doubt that it'll be anything like a tipping-point state in 2016. It's winnable if Democrats win the popular vote by a sizable margin, otherwise it will probably stay Republican. Democrats haven't had much luck here since 2008.

There's no way it'll be a tipping point state if it has a PVI of around R+5. The tipping point state will be between R+2 and D+2.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: December 10, 2015, 09:01:41 am »

Do you guys think NC will continue to trend Democratic? It has been trending Democratic quickly since the year 2000. Hillary will get less black and youth turnout and support than Obama did, but she will rebound among working class whites. Hard to say which one will overpower the other.

Here is how NC voted relative to the nation sine 2000 :

2000: R + 12.33

2004 : R + 9.94

2008 : R + 7

2012 : R + 6

If the trend continues, and Hillary wins by 5 points nationally, then NC should be winnable.

I can imagine North Carolina going R+4 or R+3 in 2016... but Virginia seems like the most likely tipping-point state in 2016... unless Hillary Clinton can win some Southern states that Democrats haven't won since the 1990s, in which case Pennsylvania becomes the tipping-point state. 
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olowakandi
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« Reply #9 on: December 10, 2015, 09:06:37 am »

The South is gonna stay solid GOP. Even FL, but Dems can win without South as SW is furtile ground for Dems to win. Based on the Telemundo poll in which Clinton has a high ceiling with Latinos.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #10 on: December 10, 2015, 11:47:31 am »

In the end I think Trump and possibly Cruz will say enough stupid things to lose the state to Hillary. That said, it will not be a tipping point and is the Dems pretty clear 347th electoral vote.

Also get the feeling that southern whites will hold up well for Cruz/Trump while northern whites would swing D, possibly considerably in rich suburbs. NC also doesn't have many Hispanics and black turnout could fall slightly, although more minorities will be eligible voters in 2016 than 2012. A state like FL is a bigger risk for Trump/Cruz where Hispanics will be like 3% greater and whites 3% less than 2012 and Romney already got 39% of them (mostly older Cubans).

Trump or Cruz could easily make up for losing North Carolina by picking up Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado.
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henster
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« Reply #11 on: December 10, 2015, 05:06:12 pm »

Do you guys think NC will continue to trend Democratic? It has been trending Democratic quickly since the year 2000. Hillary will get less black and youth turnout and support than Obama did, but she will rebound among working class whites. Hard to say which one will overpower the other.

Here is how NC voted relative to the nation sine 2000 :

2000: R + 12.33

2004 : R + 9.94

2008 : R + 7

2012 : R + 6

If the trend continues, and Hillary wins by 5 points nationally, then NC should be winnable.

What makes you think she will do better among working-class white? In fact many polls have showed her doing worse with whites than Obama. I wouldn't be surprised to see her losing NC like Kerry did in 2004.
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