Do you guys think NC will continue to trend Democratic? It has been trending Democratic quickly since the year 2000. Hillary will get less black and youth turnout and support than Obama did, but she will rebound among working class whites. Hard to say which one will overpower the other.
Here is how NC voted relative to the nation sine 2000 :
2000: R + 12.33
2004 : R + 9.94
2008 : R + 7
2012 : R + 6
If the trend continues, and Hillary wins by 5 points nationally, then NC should be winnable.
It could, but I highly doubt that it'll be anything like a tipping-point state in 2016. It's winnable if Democrats win the popular vote by a sizable margin, otherwise it will probably stay Republican. Democrats haven't had much luck here since 2008.
There's no way it'll be a tipping point state if it has a PVI of around R+5. The tipping point state will be between R+2 and D+2.
