Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

http://overtimepolitics.com/clinton-leads-sanders-51-39-in-new-nevada-democratic-caucus-poll/

Clinton 51%

Sanders 39%

O'Malley 3%

Undecided 7%

Smallish sample size (about 225 people). They say that they will poll at least once more before the caucus.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

The Nevada caucus is the first one after NH for the Dems. This could be a good sign for Sanders. Polling has been relatively sparse in NV; I'm pretty sure that this is the closest poll yet. We'll see if OvertimePolitics is worth anything. I wish that they had a breakdown by LV vs Non-LV along with the usual race/gender breakdowns.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

As I recall, the Nevada caucuses have the same 15% viability threshold in every precinct that Iowa has, don't they?  That's why Edwards got virtually nothing here in 2008.  So whatever low single digit statewide %age O'Malley is getting here is going to end up largely distributed between Clinton and Sanders.

Yeah; they mention that a bit in the article. That would explain why Edwards only got 1.5% in Clark County (LV). It's a lot easier to get 15% or more if there's only 5 people at a caucus.

I really wish that pollsters would ask O'Malley voters who their second choice is.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Wow. That's not even a methodology.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

All things considered, Clinton has a whole delegation of Latino Congresswomen, in the state of NV who supports her.

Isn't she Nevada's lone Democrat in the house?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Caucuses are hard to poll. I still think that this will be one of Sanders's better chances to win somewhere outside of VT on Super Tuesday.

Also,

I think Overtime Politics is overestimating Clinton's support here by about 45%, maybe even more. This is Colorado after all.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Hahahaha. I think we might have a Worst Poll of the Year contender here folks!

As well as Worst New Pollster.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Obviously, Sanders's support will only go up after he triumphs in the first four states. Sanders has the south in a bag. AR and TN are only the beginning.

/s

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I definitely think it's a good idea to quarantine it to one thread. If their methods become more advanced, then perhaps they can be moved out in due time.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

http://overtimepolitics.com/changes-to-overtime-politics-for-2016/ Overtime Politics just announced they will be asking and including demographic info now.

We did it Atlas!

131 emails, so it probably was't just Atlas, unless one of you e-mailed him 100 times.

Anybody else willing to bet that r/sandersforpresident had something to do with this?

Why would they? These polls have their boy doing so well, why would they want anything to change?

There's still a few reasonable folks. Out of 137,000ish, I'm sure that you could find at least 1/1000 that like him, but aren't Berniebots. They do call out some blatant BS polls (I saw a post about an Overtime poll on there and it was doing decently).

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

So basically some random guy just decided to become (or pretend to be) a pollster. Okay.

That's what it sounds like to me too. He might've gotten help from a few friends, but that's it.