Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[A Perez]

My theory is that Bernie Sanders has gained from hanging out with black rappers who sing about  a bitches and "niggas in the club."  I predict that black people will increasingly flock to Sanders side, because of this hanging out with rappers factor.

[A Perez]

Overtime politics' website doesn't say who owns it,  where its office is located, phone number, or anything.
The "contact us"  link only gives you an email. http://overtimepolitics.com/contact/

[A Perez]

No one knows who owns overtime, its phone number, etc.

[A Perez]

Overtime is a Pro-Sanders outfit that popped up out of nowhere spewing outliers aimed at pretending Sanders is surging.
The website shows no contact  information other than an email address.

[A Perez]

Overtime is a Pro-Sanders outfit that popped up out of nowhere spewing outliers aimed at pretending Sanders is surging.
The website shows no contact  information other than an email address.

Source ?

They released an IA poll recently which showed almost the same results as the Selzer poll.

If you think this outfit here is pro-Sanders, you can also say that PPP is a pro-Hilldog outfit because their numbers often are more pro-Hillary than others ... which is equally idiotic.

PPP has a history of accuracy as reflected by its B grade by Nate Silver.
Plus we know where to contact PPP and who owns it.

Who owns Overtime? Names please.

[A Perez]

They also don't have contact information who owns it etc.

[A Perez]

Overtime has outliers everywhere but Iowa. It is possible that  a Sanders surrogate created this polling firm in order to exaggerate Sanders' numbers..the polling firm owner and location are not listed in its mysteriously untransparent WordPress website. A person in this board recently said their methodology is unlisted as well.

[A Perez]

why do they do more dem primary than the GOP primary?  

RCP and HuffPo seem to not be taking them seriously.

[A Perez]

They link to a PDF which has no methodology.
Overtime also does not list where it is located or who owns it.
It appears to be an invention of a Sanders supporter seeking to tip the narrative on his favor.

[A Perez]

This one doesn't exist yet, but it probably will.

LOL.
Good one.

[A Perez]

I emailed them and got this response:

Hi [Name Redacted],

I have a staff of 3 independent contractors who do everything on the phones. Without the crosstab information, the process goes much faster, it's a simple matter of "Are you planning on voting in either the Dem or Rep primary in (whatever state)", if they say yes, they get asked the nominee question depending on whether they said D or R.

From what I gather from my contractors, they can get around 20-25 responses an hour. Once they hit the D or R limit, depending on how each state voted in the last 2 elections, it goes even faster. When I get the last spreadsheet, it's just a matter of copy/pasting the information into 1 spreadsheet and adding everything up.

Without the extra demographic information, the report can be written up extremely quickly and the results can be published.

I realize this isn't perfect, but it's at least getting some information out there.

Starting in January, I'm going to have a question about personal income on the script as well. To me, if I'm going to add something that is going to increase the time spent both calling people and getting the reports ready, it should be a demo that not everyone provides.

I hope I've answered your questions.

- Fred

So they don't control for ages and race?

[A Perez]

Overtime is the only polling firm that doesnt disclose phone number, address or owner name.

For comparison, PPP's "contact us" information has a physical address and phone number. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/contact/contact-us.html

CNN's ORC International is located at 315 Park Ave S, New York, NY 10010

Yougov is owned by Stephan Shakespeare and their phone # is. 650-319-0702

Overtime has something to hide. Who are they?

[A Perez]

Who are they?

People who are afraid they will end up like Vince Foster if they disclose their names and residence.

Rush Limbaugh? It is an honor to have you here. Go Overtime!

[A Perez]

why do they do more dem primary than the GOP primary?  

RCP and HuffPo seem to not be taking them seriously.

HuffPo tend to update new data from new pollster really late.  Sometimes a month later. 

RCP is the picky one.  But they take almost all state polls.  Though, this pollster being new, may not be on their radar.

Atlas is the only place that update the fastest because multiple people using google and all.

How in the world have you keep track of how long those organizations take to include new posters? are you making that up

[A Perez]

why do they do more dem primary than the GOP primary?  

RCP and HuffPo seem to not be taking them seriously.

HuffPo tend to update new data from new pollster really late.  Sometimes a month later.  

RCP is the picky one.  But they take almost all state polls.  Though, this pollster being new, may not be on their radar.

Atlas is the only place that update the fastest because multiple people using google and all.

How in the world have you keep track of how long those organizations take to include new posters? are you making that up

I made them up.  Geez, what kind of loaded question is "are you making them up."

Tell us how many new pollsters were included in RCP or HuffPo in a month or so. If you don't, you just expect us to have blind faith in what you say. By the way, soon it will be the one month anniversary of overtime's first poll. do you predict they will be included in RCP or  Huffington Post?

[A Perez]

I emailed overtime asking for their physical address or phone number. I got this reply:

"After receiving the kinds of emails I have received, directed at me personally, I will not be sharing my address, since Overtime Politics is run out of my home. In the near future, I will be forming an LLC though, and would more than happy to give a physical address at that point".

[A Perez]

I expected Missouri to be somewhat close due to it being almost entirely white outside of its most urban areas, but this close?!? Wow, Go Sanders!

No, it's not this close, unless a real pollster says so.

[A Perez]

They posted that few hours ago. 

http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/

all your need.

Hispanics are 5% of Michigan population. Subtract the undocumented and documented non-citizens, and you get maybe 3% registered voters. Assume that not all Hispanics who are registered are LIKELY voters and you get 2%.

In conclusion, it is possible that Overtime polled about 10 Hispanics. But they won't tell us how many.