Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[Eraserhead]

Hmm. That's interesting.

I'd really rather Sanders make up ground in Iowa though.

[Eraserhead]

My theory is that Bernie Sanders has gained from hanging out with black rappers who sing about  a bitches and "niggas in the club."  I predict that black people will increasingly flock to Sanders side, because of this hanging out with rappers factor.

Killer Mike sings about "bitches" and "niggas in the club"? News to me.

[Eraserhead]

Just wondering if this is a legitimate pollster or not...

[Eraserhead]

Alright, what is the deal with these guys?

They came out of nowhere and it looks like they are spitting out a new poll everyday. Also, most of the results seem too pro-Sanders (albeit not ridiculously so).

[Eraserhead]

Okay, it might be time to start ignoring everything from these people.

[Eraserhead]

Overtime Politics is set to release their Vermont polling today, it could be a good test to see if they are super pro-Bernie or not, if they have Bernie with a narrow lead or even a Hillary lead in VT then we will see they are not biased towards him.

All that would prove is that they're joke pollster. Bernie probably has a massive lead in Vermont.

[Eraserhead]

I guess their Vermont "polls" will be released shortly.

[Eraserhead]

dem - vt http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comDec24-27DemocraticPrimaryPoll-Vermont.pdf

Last poll in Vermont (Castleton) was 65-14 Sanders. So this 63-29 result appears to indicate undecideds are breaking heavily towards Clinton. Troubling.

That Castleton poll was totally bizarre and who even knows if this one here is a real poll. Plus, directly comparing results from different pollsters, especially when said polls were done months and months apart, is not a good idea.

So basically, who knows? I just feel safe in assuming that Sanders has a huge lead here because he's incredibly popular in the state that he represents in the US Senate

[Eraserhead]

So basically some random guy just decided to become (or pretend to be) a pollster. Okay.

[Eraserhead]

Michigan Democratic Primary
Dec. 31st

Hillary Clinton- 191 – 47%
Bernie Sanders – 163 – 40%
Martin O’Malley – 10 – 2%
Undecided – 41 – 10%

Are they calling any black folks?

[Eraserhead]

No one on here will ever be happy with this polling orginization if they do not have Hillary leading by 30.

Dude, they're fake polls. There's no reason to turn this into a Bernie vs. Hillary thing.

[Eraserhead]

Demographic numbers look pretty reasonable this time. The topline numbers are closer than what Florida Atlantic put out in November  (66/22) but don't seem implausible. I'll decide whether to include it on my map later, after we see the Republican numbers.

Looks like he's getting better at faking it!

[Eraserhead]

Male: Sanders (48-46) 194
Female: Clinton (52-40) 202

18-30: Sanders (56-38) 71
31-45: Clinton (51-41) 119
46-59: Clinton (53-41) 127
60+: Clinton (51-42) 79

Just a small comment, but these demographic numbers don't look anything like what the caucuses probably will be. In 2008, the Democratic caucus was 57% Female and 43% male, and the 60+ group was 29%. I'm thinking they drastically undersampled white women.

They didn't sample anyone.

I've still been given no reason to believe that these are real polls.

[Eraserhead]

Yeah, probably not a good idea to add these even if they're showing what most others are showing.

[Eraserhead]

http://overtimepolitics.com/donald-trump-leads-marco-rubio-by-20-points-in-illinois-36-16/

Donald Trump – 36%
Marco Rubio  – 16%
Ted Cruz – 15%
Jeb Bush – 5%
Ben Carson – 5%
John Kasich – 5%
Carly Fiorina – 5%
Chris Christie – 3%
Rand Paul – 3%
Other – 2%
Undecided – 6%

Damn, if this is true (big if), then it looks like TRUMP really did Cruz in on Thursday.

Yeah. I think Cruz is in freefall. Similar to what happened to Carson a while ago when TRUMP decided to deal with him.

We're gonna need some new Iowa polls to know for sure (and not ones from Overtime).

[Eraserhead]

Overtime Politics has Minnesota on Tuesday, and Nevada next Friday...

Damn, if I thought these were real polls, that would be exciting news!

[Eraserhead]

Nevada Democratic Poll

Hillary Clinton – 47%
Bernie Sanders – 43%
Martin O’Malley – 3%
Undecided – 7%

Ha. I wish.

[Eraserhead]

Those numbers are about right for white voters and others, but over-sampling Latinos and slightly under for AA.

If they're over-sampling Latinos, then perhaps Sanders is leading by even more.

Com'on Nevada, you can do it! Rebel against the Dynasty!!!!!!!!!!

I'd love for Sanders to win and maybe he will but...

THESE. ARE. NOT. REAL. POLLS.

[Eraserhead]

ARG is awful but they do at least produce genuine polls. The best thing about them is that you can safely assume that the exact opposite of what they're showing is what's actually happening.

[Eraserhead]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

BANNED by 538.

Also their domain has expired and all trace of them swept from the internet.

They only banned them just now?