Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Plus these guys seem to have Sanders over-performing in SC. Be interesting to see how they stack up in the end, considering their lack of an actual methodology

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Good to see that Sanders keeps on surging across the board.

No wonder the Clinton campaign and its helpers are coming out with the butcher knives now ...

No comments about their methodology?

As long as Tender likes the numbers he can continue a particular narrative... It doesn't matter

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I assume their methodology is as robust as elsewhere lol

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Overtime is a Pro-Sanders outfit that popped up out of nowhere spewing outliers aimed at pretending Sanders is surging.
The website shows no contact  information other than an email address.

Source ?

They released an IA poll recently which showed almost the same results as the Selzer poll.

If you think this outfit here is pro-Sanders, you can also say that PPP is a pro-Hilldog outfit because their numbers often are more pro-Hillary than others ... which is equally idiotic.

It's also that these guys are very untested, that doesn't mean they're bad, it means they need to see how they go. It's also that their SC was way off the polling consensus and it has NV roughly as close as IA...  

Plus they've got a ridiculous methodology.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obama did terribly among Arkansas Democrats because he was guilty of running for President while black.

Your party has racists in it? Why do you think skin color matters more to them than policies?

Well, they ended up voting for McCain and Romney, so I guess they are in your party now.

Proof that Obama's rhetoric has led to Democrats playing the race card.

You're a College Republican aren't you?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://overtimepolitics.com/hillary-clinton-holds-5-point-lead-in-missouri-over-bernie-sanders-47-42/

Hillary Clinton- 192 – 47%
Bernie Sanders – 172 – 42%
Martin O’Malley – 12 – 3%
Undecided – 33 – 8%

lol, no.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There are hacks on both sides, clearly.

But vague generalisations about entire groups of people are really not helpful. Like it or not, most of us are actually on the same side, supporting one candidate does not make one a hack just because you might not understand why. Saying a clearly dodgy pro-Sanders poll is trash is not hackery, saying a dodgy poll might be legit because you like/dislike the outcome is.

I've always said that I respect Sanders and his role in this campaign, but I'm pretty clear that I support Hillary more and why. That doesn't mean I'm some closet right-winger, I'm very clearly a progressive and while not perfect, Hillary is my choice. Cutting through some of this personal bull**** will make life a lot easier for everyone when unity is required to defeat anyone from one of the most deranged and disconnected GOP fields in history. We cannot depend on the GOP picking a lunatic to just hand a rare third-term to whomever the Democrat is

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://overtimepolitics.com/donald-trump-leads-ted-cruz-by-12-points-in-missouri-36-24/

Donald Trump – 155 – 36%
Ted Cruz – 103 – 24%
Marco Rubio – 78 – 18%
Ben Carson – 21 – 5%
Jeb Bush – 17 – 4%
Chris Christie – 9 – 2%
Rand Paul – 8 – 2%
Carly Fiorina – 5 – 1%
John Kasich – 4 – 1%
Other – 9 – 2%
Undecided – 22 – 5%

This is very close to the Remington poll....I think we should give Overtime a chance, if it's wrong that's the worse that can happen.

I think the general rule around here is to give all new pollsters a chance, but be highly skeptical/critical of their practices and methodologies and so far, their methodology is garbage, it seems that any connection between the reality of the situation and this guy's numbers are coincidental.

If it's right, then we take them seriously next time. Until they have any kind of track record to judge, I'm personally giving them a chance to prove themselves.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It seems as though the Republican polls on here are pretty normal but the democratic numbers are insane....hmmm...I would however like to get another polling organization to agree. If the Republican nominee is Trump there no question Hillary would perform less then Sanders. The only thing trump has in his back pocket is anti-establishment and if Hillary is the nominee he will use that. What can he even use on Sanders that he's a socialist? He's a clown and people would probably rather vote for Bernie.

Its relatively straight-forward to me. The issue is putting this lot aside, Trump is the leader in the GOP race because he probably over-performs in the Internet-based polling. Sanders is in the same boat, he performs best in that kind of polling, so it generates potentially more outliers.

But the point isn't trying to find a polling narrative that helps the candidate you prefer, polling dynamics will shift continually over the next months, which is why GE match-ups are pointless. Unless they're in an early state most people haven't engaged.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Sorry, I realize this is explained earlier in the thread, but can someone remind me: Have they said that they're going to start actually *weighting* by demographics, or just asking demographic questions, but leaving the topline #s unweighted?

I don't think this lot is actually capable of scientific polling.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

These demographic numbers don't exactly vouch for these polls being accurate:

Vote by Race:

White: Sanders 43/41
Black: Clinton 63/31 (?!?!?!?)
Latino: Clinton 48/40 (HUH?)
Asian: Clinton 45/44 (WTF?)
Other: Clinton 44/42

Vote by Age:

18-30: 47-39 Sanders
31-45: 49-36 Clinton
46-59: 47-41 Clinton ()
60+: 48-44 Clinton (WTF???)

Gender at least seems okay - Clinton is ahead 43/42 with Men, 52/37 with Women

I knew this lot were garbage... now I know for sure.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No one on here will ever be happy with this polling orginization if they do not have Hillary leading by 30.

Seriously, if you need bogus numbers ....

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I mean, those headline numbers make sense, but that doesn't mean I don't think the numbers are pure bull****.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Now have they decided to become too pro Hillary? I bet even in Florida Hillary does not have a 12 point lead with people under 30.

Really? So you're turning on them, despite their strong pro-Bernie "numbers" in the past?

What polls do you like or believe?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Certain people clearly need them... we don't need to take them seriously.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Sanders 48, Clinton 47

http://overtimepolitics.com/sanders-leads-clinton-by-1-point-in-iowa-the-day-before-the-caucuses-48-47/

Considering a 1 point Sanders win is within the MoE of many polls, Overtime looks like they're picking a number that's kind of ballpark but deviations could be explained.

no1currs.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Sanders 48, Clinton 47

http://overtimepolitics.com/sanders-leads-clinton-by-1-point-in-iowa-the-day-before-the-caucuses-48-47/

I think Atlas would explode if Sanders won Iowa, and Overtime turned out to be closer to the correct numbers than Selzer.

Nah. -StatesPoll.com- predicted a Sanders win at the beginning of January.

I've been reading this StatesPoll.com... it's cute, very Atlasy.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Guess what... Overtime got lucky, that's it.

When you pull enough numbers out of your arse, you're eventually going to get some that match up.

Considering the friends that Overtime has here, who needs enemies.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Black turnout will drop without Obama, but not by 13 points. But in any case:

Exit polls reveal the 2008 primary was 60% female. This sample was 53% female. No cause for the decrease given Hillary's still on the ballot.

JUNK POLL

An Overtime Poll is JUNK!!?!?!?!

Wash your mouth out and get back in your corner.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Black turnout will drop without Obama, but not by 13 points. But in any case:

Exit polls reveal the 2008 primary was 60% female. This sample was 53% female. No cause for the decrease given Hillary's still on the ballot.

JUNK POLL

An Overtime Poll is JUNK!!?!?!?!

Wash your mouth out and get back in your corner.

I'm sorry, but I'm not going to join in on the whole theory that this guy literally sits in his room making up polls and methodology tweaks, blogging, doing a reddit AMA, responding to 100s or 1000s of methodology emails, and reading the death threats some people send to him all just as a big joke to see reactions. No, I get the arguments/sequence of events, but the absolutely pathetic life someone would need to have to stay committed to that sort of joke just makes the idea simply preposterous.

If he releases a poll that is believable, I'm going to use it. I'll disregard outliers like this AL Poll.

I see no evidence that his polls, sparing one lucky guess, are anything other than that.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Final SC Republican Poll:

Donald Trump – 31%
Marco Rubio  – 25%
Ted Cruz – 18%
John Kasich – 10%
Jeb Bush – 7%
Ben Carson – 5%

http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comFeb17-Feb19RepublicanPrimaryPoll-SouthCarolina.pdf

Not saying it is, but if this was a confirmed real pollster, it would be in line with the Opinion Savvy in that there is a late surge for Rubio.

Or you know, releasing plausible numbers that line up with the consensus?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Final SC Republican Poll:

Donald Trump – 31%
Marco Rubio  – 25%
Ted Cruz – 18%
John Kasich – 10%
Jeb Bush – 7%
Ben Carson – 5%

http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comFeb17-Feb19RepublicanPrimaryPoll-SouthCarolina.pdf

Not saying it is, but if this was a confirmed real pollster, it would be in line with the Opinion Savvy in that there is a late surge for Rubio.

Or you know, releasing plausible numbers that line up with the consensus?

No other pollsters besides Opinion Savvy, which just came up pretty recently, and ARG, have shown Rubio doing so well.

The Rubio surge was being talked about for the last day or two.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Fun with Overtime "splits"

Whites (181, 59%): Bernie 57, Hillary 38 (103-69)
Af-Am (38, 12%): Hillary 68, Bernie 29 (26-11)
Hispanics (72, 24%): Hillary 58, Bernie 39 (42-28)
Asians [8]: Bernie 62.5, Hillary 37.5 (5-3)
NA/Other (6): Hillary 67, Bernie 33 (4-2)

1/17-20

Whites (184, 61%): Bernie 50, Hillary 36 (92-66)
Af-Am (24, 8%): Hillary 75, Bernie 21 (18-5)
Hispanics (54, 18%): Hillary 67, Bernie 28 (36-15)
Asians [8]: Hillary 62.5, Bernie 37.5 (5-3)
NA/Other (32, 11%): Hillary 50, Bernie 44 (16-14)

Rough month for "Native American/Other" respondents.

Can someone please put this in English? Good lord what is the size of the MoE for these? lol.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Those numbers are about right for white voters and others, but over-sampling Latinos and slightly under for AA.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Those numbers are about right for white voters and others, but over-sampling Latinos and slightly under for AA.

If they're over-sampling Latinos, then perhaps Sanders is leading by even more.

Com'on Nevada, you can do it! Rebel against the Dynasty!!!!!!!!!!

I'd love for Sanders to win and maybe he will but...

THESE. ARE. NOT. REAL. POLLS.

Lol, indeed. But it's funny to see Wulfric invest.