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  IA - Selzer/DMR poll Hillary leads Bernie 48-39
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Author Topic: IA - Selzer/DMR poll Hillary leads Bernie 48-39  (Read 1473 times)
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jfern
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« on: December 14, 2015, 06:07:59 am »
« edited: December 14, 2015, 06:10:28 am by ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ »

Clitnon 48
Sanders 39
O'Malley 4

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/12/14/clinton-builds-lead-over-sanders-new-iowa-poll-shows/77213730/?hootPostID=7caf8defaee0bb6f392a739edd64e998

This is the gold standard of Iowa polling. Good news for newbie pollster Overtime, they closely matched this.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: December 14, 2015, 06:14:58 am »

Called the margin in that other thread.

This isn't too bad. Bernie still has a shot here.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2 on: December 14, 2015, 07:09:28 am »

I think this is much closer to the reality - a big element of the IA core is young white party activists ie... Sanders' base. Hillary certainly cannot be in any way complacent.
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A Perez
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« Reply #3 on: December 14, 2015, 08:48:31 am »

Obama was doing significantly better th van Sanders in Iowa at this point in 2007.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #4 on: December 14, 2015, 09:43:09 am »

Obama was doing significantly better th van Sanders in Iowa at this point in 2007.

Due to the nature of the 3 way race in 2008, Obama was polling under Sanders. However, your right in that Obama managed to tie Hillary at this point and even began to take the lead.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: December 14, 2015, 10:02:14 am »

Obama was doing significantly better th van Sanders in Iowa at this point in 2007.

Due to the nature of the 3 way race in 2008, Obama was polling under Sanders. However, your right in that Obama managed to tie Hillary at this point and even began to take the lead.

It's kind of tough to make a direct comparison too though because the Iowa caucus was held on Jan. 3rd that year. It won't happen until Feb. 1st this time.

By the way, in the final polls before Iowa that year, Obama's support was underestimated big time by everyone including the DMR poll.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html#polls

They did come pretty close to nailing his margin of victory though.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #6 on: December 14, 2015, 10:11:49 am »

Obama was doing significantly better th van Sanders in Iowa at this point in 2007.

Due to the nature of the 3 way race in 2008, Obama was polling under Sanders. However, your right in that Obama managed to tie Hillary at this point and even began to take the lead.

It's kind of tough to make a direct comparison too though because the Iowa caucus was held on Jan. 3rd that year. It won't happen until Feb. 1st this time.

By the way, in the final polls before Iowa that year, Obama's support was underestimated big time by everyone including the DMR poll.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html#polls

They did come pretty close to nailing his margin of victory though.

Poor Biden and Richardson, their supporters went to Edwards and Obama when they didn't meet the 15% threshold. That would explain the underestimation I think.
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Holmes
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« Reply #7 on: December 14, 2015, 11:40:48 am »

Clinton gained 6 from their last poll, Sanders and O'Malley gained 2.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8 on: December 14, 2015, 11:44:41 am »

Clinton gained 6 from their last poll, Sanders and O'Malley gained 2.

Yeah, Clinton gained most of the Biden people. That seems to be the case just about everywhere with the possible exception of New Hampshire.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #9 on: December 14, 2015, 11:45:02 am »

Poor Biden and Richardson, their supporters went to Edwards and Obama when they didn't meet the 15% threshold. That would explain the underestimation I think.

I'm betting that O'Malley will likewise make a deal with Clinton about his own supporters too.
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Holmes
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« Reply #10 on: December 14, 2015, 12:01:34 pm »

Poor Biden and Richardson, their supporters went to Edwards and Obama when they didn't meet the 15% threshold. That would explain the underestimation I think.

I'm betting that O'Malley will likewise make a deal with Clinton about his own supporters too.

He has little leverage.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: December 14, 2015, 08:34:22 pm »

Poor Biden and Richardson, their supporters went to Edwards and Obama when they didn't meet the 15% threshold. That would explain the underestimation I think.

I'm betting that O'Malley will likewise make a deal with Clinton about his own supporters too.

He has little leverage.

The deal would just be that their supporters would back each other in any precinct where one of them doesn't make viability.  There will be far more precincts in which O'Malley doesn't make viability than in which Clinton doesn't, so this benefits her more than it benefits him.  But at least if Clinton only ends up winning the state by a narrow margin over Sanders, O'Malley can say privately that he helped her win the state, and maybe she'll reward him with a Cabinet spot or something.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #12 on: December 14, 2015, 11:52:18 pm »

I can confirm that the Clinton campaign is actively and aggressively canvassing O'Malley supporters to get them to convert when he doesn't reach viability.
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YPestis25
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« Reply #13 on: December 15, 2015, 12:05:56 am »

I can confirm that the Clinton campaign is actively and aggressively canvassing O'Malley supporters to get them to convert when he doesn't reach viability.

Do you know if they're experiencing any success?
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #14 on: December 15, 2015, 12:14:55 am »

I can confirm that the Clinton campaign is actively and aggressively canvassing O'Malley supporters to get them to convert when he doesn't reach viability.

Lol the 4%? Don't think thats the smartest idea.
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YPestis25
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« Reply #15 on: December 15, 2015, 12:25:57 am »

I can confirm that the Clinton campaign is actively and aggressively canvassing O'Malley supporters to get them to convert when he doesn't reach viability.

Lol the 4%? Don't think thats the smartest idea.

If it turns out to be close on February 1st, that 4% could seal the deal for her in Iowa.
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Craigo
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« Reply #16 on: December 15, 2015, 01:36:57 am »
« Edited: December 15, 2015, 01:38:34 am by Craigo »

I can confirm that the Clinton campaign is actively and aggressively canvassing O'Malley supporters to get them to convert when he doesn't reach viability.

Lol the 4%? Don't think thats the smartest idea.

Said someone who's obviously never worked in the field. There are multiple precincts where 4% will net you an extra delegate, and several where he will have more than 4% to offer.
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