New Strategies 360 Arizona: Clinton just behind Trump, trailing Rubio/Cruz

[136or142]

Looks about right.

Trump is likely not acceptable to the majority of voters, even against a trainwreck like Hillary.

Arizona has gone only once for the Democratic nominee since 1948. Republicans with a 9% lead in Arizona? That fits 2008 and 2012 fairly well.

Arizona was +9 in 2012 (Romney actually got a slightly higher share of the vote in 2012 than John McCain did in 2008) because 416,192 Arizonans are Mormons out of a population of 6,731,484 or 6.18% of the population.

Arizona may very well be a swing state in 2016. I agree it leans Republican but not by 9%

[136or142]

I also believe that the alleged affinity to Mexican-Americans by Cruz and Rubio because they are Hispanic is terribly overrated. Cruz and Rubio are the wrong sorts of Hispanics to appeal to Mexican-Americans anywhere. A liberal Hispanic of origins in the Dominican Republic (who would probably have about the same skin color as Barack Obama) would do well among Mexican-Americans.

Except perhaps in Texas, Mexican-Americans have become a very liberal bloc of voters. Such reflects the failure of Republicans to grasp onto the fast-growing Hispanic middle class through the anti-intellectualism and nativism that Republican pols have adapted for winning over Southern working-class white people.

I don't think Latino Americans will respond well to Rubio's plan of essentially 10 years of indentured servitude before illegal aliens can apply to become U.S citizens.

I also doubt that that will play well with the millions of working class Americans who vote Republican.

[136or142]

I don't think Latino Americans will respond well to Rubio's plan of essentially 10 years of indentured servitude before illegal aliens can apply to become U.S citizens.

I'm actually unclear on where Rubio is right now on legalization for illegal immigrants.  What is he proposing happen with the existing ~10 million or so during that 10 year period?  Would they be given status that's the same as permanent residents?  Because while I'm sure they'd mostly like to have citizenship, isn't the first concern just to have the legal right to live and work in the US?  If Rubio is suggesting having that, then that's still a big shift from the status quo.

Should note that my mother is a Canadian citizen who's been a permanent resident of the US for 60 years, never bothering to get US citizenship, because she just doesn't care enough about politics to vote.  And with a green card, she can still live and work in the US and all the rest.  Surely many of those from Mexico also care far more about being able to legally live and work in the US than about citizenship itself, no?  Though maybe that's not what Rubio's proposing?

I believe he gave a fairly detailed response that should answer your question in the CNN debate from a couple days ago.  So, we should see if the transcript has been posted.