FL-St. Pete Polls: Trump 36%, Cruz 22%, Rubio 17%

[Gallium]

12/14-12/15

Trump: 36%
Cruz: 22%
Rubio: 17%
Jeb: 9%
Carson: 6%
Christie: 3%
Kasich: 2%
Fiorina: 1%
Paul: 1%

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2015_StatePRI_REP_PRES_December_15_LU47.pdf

[Sorenroy]

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Before you tell me that this poll is weighted, I know. That still doesn't take away from the fact that it's kind of funny. (Also the reason that it is like this is because robo-calls are only legal to landlines, so younger people with cell phones are left out).

[Phony Moderate]

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Before you tell me that this poll is weighted, I know. That still doesn't take away from the fact that it's kind of funny. (Also the reason that it is like this is because robo-calls are only legal to landlines, so younger people with cell phones are left out).

So Rand might actually lead with 18-29s.

[Sorenroy]

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Before you tell me that this poll is weighted, I know. That still doesn't take away from the fact that it's kind of funny. (Also the reason that it is like this is because robo-calls are only legal to landlines, so younger people with cell phones are left out).

So Rand might actually lead with 18-29s.

Paul Support:
 18 to 29 = 2.2%
 30 to 49 = 0.7%
 50 to 69 = 1.3%
 70 and up = 0.4%

It's his best group. Still funny though.

[Mr. Morden]

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Before you tell me that this poll is weighted, I know. That still doesn't take away from the fact that it's kind of funny. (Also the reason that it is like this is because robo-calls are only legal to landlines, so younger people with cell phones are left out).

Florida Republican primary exit poll from 2012:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/fl/

18-29: 6%
30-44: 15%
45-64: 42%
65+: 36%

So this poll isn’t wildly off from the 2012 GOP primary electorate in the state.  It skews older, sure, but not by an enormous amount.

[Sorenroy]

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Before you tell me that this poll is weighted, I know. That still doesn't take away from the fact that it's kind of funny. (Also the reason that it is like this is because robo-calls are only legal to landlines, so younger people with cell phones are left out).

Florida Republican primary exit poll from 2012:

[Can't post a link because I don't have enough posts.]

18-29: 6%
30-44: 15%
45-64: 42%
65+: 36%

So this poll isn’t wildly off from the 2012 GOP primary electorate in the state.  It skews older, sure, but not by an enormous amount.

I guess I'm just an idiot.. thanks for the correction.

Anyway, let's not waist a comment:

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[Crumpets]

So, out of 208 Hispanics asked, 71 prefer Rubio, 46 prefer Trump, 46 prefer Cruz, but only 30 prefer el Jeb.

Seriously... Jeb is winning over fewer Hispanics than Trump. Time to drop out.

[Lief 🗽]

Trump continues to be surprisingly strong in Florida. I'd love to see him beat Rubio in the state!

[Mr. Morden]

Seriously... Jeb is winning over fewer Hispanics than Trump. Time to drop out.

It's Florida though, so those are mostly Cubans.  Maybe Bush can win Mexicans.  You know...in all those states where Mexican-Americans are a crucial Republican primary voting block. 

[mencken]

After doing a reconnaissance mission in Southwest Florida for the past week, I can confirm that Trump has a stranglehold on this state. Rubio's only hope is that Cuban turnout exceeds the Republicans of the rest of the state.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Trump is crushing among Asians?

[RI]

Trump is crushing among Asians?

Yeah, this isn't the first poll to suggest that.

[mencken]

Trump is crushing among Asians?

Yeah, this isn't the first poll to suggest that.

I would be very, very skeptical in light of Trump's stereotypes about China, Japan, and Vietnam.

[RI]

Trump is crushing among Asians?

Yeah, this isn't the first poll to suggest that.

I would be very, very skeptical in light of Trump's stereotypes about China, Japan, and Vietnam.

Asians are also seem to be the most supportive of Trump's restrictive immigration policies in polls.

[Sorenroy]

Trump is crushing among Asians?

Yeah, this isn't the first poll to suggest that.

I would be very, very skeptical in light of Trump's stereotypes about China, Japan, and Vietnam.

It was also a poll of only 23 people in that group. Each person accounted for over 4% of that vote. It could just be a large margin of error... if it wasn't backed up by other similar polling.

[Eraserhead]

Wow @ Cruz being ahead of Rubio in Florida.

As for the Bush numbers, as Ms. Cain would say "who care"?

[muon2]

Only 10 of the 99 delegates in FL are awarded to the winner of the state. 81 of the 99 delegates in FL are winner take all by CD, 3 per CD. Rubio could win in the Cuban-dominated south FL CDs and have a healthy block of delegates even if he loses the state as a whole. Not only could he win the Cuban majority CDs, but other south FL CDs held by Dems have a large Cuban population registered as Pubs. They too are each worth 3 delegates.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Only 10 of the 99 delegates in FL are awarded to the winner of the state. 81 of the 99 delegates in FL are winner take all by CD, 3 per CD. Rubio could win in the Cuban-dominated south FL CDs and have a healthy block of delegates even if he loses the state as a whole. Not only could he win the Cuban majority CDs, but other south FL CDs held by Dems have a large Cuban population registered as Pubs. They too are each worth 3 delegates.

Rubio won't even be in the race when Florida votes! This is of no concern. I'd rather he be only in concentrated areas. Gives Trump the vast majority.

Also, re: GE - it's pretty clear the anti-Rubio Cubans won't be following him to the GE while the pro-Rubio Cubans will follow Trump (according to FAU poll)