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Author Topic: IA-PPP: Clinton trails Cruz and Rubio, leads Bush, Fiorina and barely tops Trump  (Read 4244 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
IndyRep
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« on: December 17, 2015, 02:52:22 pm »

Clinton (D): 41%
Rubio (R): 48%

Clinton (D): 44%
Cruz (R): 47%

Clinton (D): 46%
Bush (R): 41%

Clinton (D): 45%
Fiorina (R): 42%

Clinton (D): 45%
Trump (R): 43%

Clinton (D): 45%
Carson (R): 45%

Clinton (D): 39%
Rubio (R): 33%
Trump (I): 23%

Clinton (D): 41%
Cruz (R): 33%
Trump (I): 20%

Sanders (D): 45%
Fiorina (R): 39%

Sanders (D): 44%
Bush (R): 40%

Sanders (D): 46%
Trump (R): 43%

Sanders (D): 44%
Cruz (R): 43%

Sanders (D): 43%
Carson (R): 42%

Sanders (D): 42%
Rubio (R): 44%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/12/trump-third-party-bid-could-doom-gop-in-swing-state.html
« Last Edit: December 17, 2015, 02:57:01 pm by TNvolunteer »Logged

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Elizabeth Warren 2020
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« Reply #1 on: December 17, 2015, 02:53:57 pm »

Ted Cruz would not win IA in a general election, I don't care what the polls say.
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Devils30
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« Reply #2 on: December 17, 2015, 03:11:22 pm »

Cruz hasn't been hit with negative ads yet. That said, Iowa is looking like an R+ PVI this year, probably switching places with Virginia.
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henster
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« Reply #3 on: December 17, 2015, 03:15:20 pm »

Email stuff has been out of the news for weeks now and the polls still look ugly for Hillary. Sanders also has a serious case that he's more electable than her because numerous polls have shown this.
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« Reply #4 on: December 17, 2015, 03:16:26 pm »

Im not to worried, Obama also trailed Republicans in febuary and he still won the state.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=149214.0
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #5 on: December 17, 2015, 03:17:25 pm »

Email stuff has been out of the news for weeks now and the polls still look ugly for Hillary. Sanders also has a serious case that he's more electable than her because numerous polls have shown this.

Sanders wasnt mentioned once during the Republican debate. I'd like to see his numbers after he gets constantly attacked. I think his numbers are inflated.
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marty
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« Reply #6 on: December 17, 2015, 03:30:35 pm »

Hllary clinton deep underwater in approvals, as is obama. '

38-55 for her.

41-54 for him.
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henster
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« Reply #7 on: December 17, 2015, 03:35:23 pm »

Email stuff has been out of the news for weeks now and the polls still look ugly for Hillary. Sanders also has a serious case that he's more electable than her because numerous polls have shown this.

Sanders wasnt mentioned once during the Republican debate. I'd like to see his numbers after he gets constantly attacked. I think his numbers are inflated.

Well maybe there should be more Democratic debates to counter that? Of course this is not what Team Hillary wants, they want as few debates as possible thinking it helps them but it actually hurts. The Republicans can bash her in front of tens of millions of viewers and not just Republicans watching but Independents and Democrats too. It just further drives her numbers down and it really is going to get worse when there's an avalanche of negative ads against her.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #8 on: December 17, 2015, 03:43:54 pm »

Trump doesnt have good approvals either, that's why he isnt winning the race. But, Cruz does seem to do better in the polls. Too bad for him, he was hurt by the leak of classified info, he was just starting to ascend.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #9 on: December 17, 2015, 03:59:46 pm »

Good thing Clinton doesn't need it to win.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #10 on: December 17, 2015, 04:00:54 pm »

Huge numbers for Rubio, Ted should also be loving those GE numbers as well.

Pretty good stuff.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #11 on: December 17, 2015, 04:03:21 pm »

Good thing Clinton doesn't need it to win.

Iowa is huge for Dems, Clinton wants to win Iowa and should. Terry Brandstad numbers are very bad in this poll.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2015, 04:06:22 pm by OC »Logged
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« Reply #12 on: December 17, 2015, 06:28:39 pm »

Republicans should win Iowa in a close election. Virginia is Clinton's last hope.
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« Reply #13 on: December 17, 2015, 06:42:42 pm »

Polls showed Obama struggling in Iowa until about September 2012. There were many articles published by smug Republicans claiming that Romney would win Iowa for sure. It's a bit soon to say that it will have a Republican PVI for sure, but it'll be a hotly contested state. Sanders really doesn't look to be doing that bad.
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« Reply #14 on: December 17, 2015, 06:47:34 pm »

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_romney_vs_obama-1922.html

The state was polling very close in 2012 with plenty of polls showing Romney leading. Its probably going to be a similar story in 2016.
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Holmes
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« Reply #15 on: December 17, 2015, 07:07:50 pm »

Im not to worried, Obama also trailed Republicans in febuary and he still won the state.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=149214.0

Early primary states have been very pro-GOP a year out in recent cycles, for obvious reasons.
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« Reply #16 on: December 17, 2015, 11:18:00 pm »

I know, lets lose with a worthless 3rd wayer rather than win with a real progressive.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #17 on: December 18, 2015, 12:31:06 am »

Hllary clinton deep underwater in approvals, as is obama. '

38-55 for her.

41-54 for him.

Horrible numbers for both but considering Hillary was in good shape with her favorables a year ago shows how far she has slid.
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« Reply #18 on: December 18, 2015, 01:19:55 am »

PPP always shows ridiculously high unfavorables on the state level.
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« Reply #19 on: December 18, 2015, 04:31:17 pm »

You do realize that polls now are going to skew Republican? All the drama and attention is on the chaotic Republican primary. The misleading attacks against Obama and Clinton are getting much more attention than the snoozefest that is the Democratic primary.

Right at the end of the 2004 Democratic primary, Kerry led Bush by around 5 points, after the Bush bashing fest that occurred in the primaries.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: December 19, 2015, 01:32:45 pm »

You do realize that polls now are going to skew Republican? All the drama and attention is on the chaotic Republican primary. The misleading attacks against Obama and Clinton are getting much more attention than the snoozefest that is the Democratic primary.

Right at the end of the 2004 Democratic primary, Kerry led Bush by around 5 points, after the Bush bashing fest that occurred in the primaries.

Good point. The Republicans are going to leave Iowa, and the smears against prominent Democrats from Republican pols who have no connection to Iowa will end in Iowa. The Republican Governor and the junior Senator will be millstones for the Republican nominee in Iowa due to their unpopularity. Democrats have good networks in place in Iowa and that will translate into a strong GOTV drive.

The example of John Kerry shows how not to campaign. 
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olowakandi
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« Reply #21 on: December 19, 2015, 02:42:15 pm »

Usually, the sitting gov approvals pretty much show how his party will fair in election. Branstad is low.
« Last Edit: December 19, 2015, 04:42:36 pm by OC »Logged
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jfern
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« Reply #22 on: December 19, 2015, 05:21:32 pm »

Usually, the sitting gov approvals pretty much show how his party will fair in election. Branstad is low.

Ohio 2006 and California 2010 should have been a little more lopsided then.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: December 19, 2015, 06:17:56 pm »

Quote from: author=OC link=topic=224904.msg4834498#msg4834498 date=1450554135
Usually, the sitting gov approvals pretty much show how his party will fair (sic) in election. Branstad is low.
.

The optimum for any state for a Presidential nominee in a swing state is that the nominee can take advantage of the popularity (as defined as 'approval') by making shared appearances of the Governor.  For a Democrat this might apply to Colorado and Virginia; for a Republican this might help in Ohio. Governors of Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, and Wisconsin will be of no such help to a Republican nominee. 

Here are some approval polls on a national map of approval of incumbent governors. With caveat that this observation does not apply to non-swing states (thus Republicans are not going to win Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, or Washington; Arizona is at best on the fringe of competitiveness for a Democrat and Kansas is a pipe dream), Republicans look to have some problems:



A positive approval rating under 45% is treated as a tie.

blue -- Republican incumbent with positive or neutral approval
20% --  tie (less than 1%) or positive approval under 45%
40% --  approval 45 - 49%
50%  -- approval 50 - 54%
60%  -- approval 55 - 59%
80% -- approval over 60%

green --  Republican incumbent with negative approval

20% --  approval 45 - 49%
40%  -- approval 40 - 44%
50%  -- approval 35 - 39%
80% --  approval under 35%


red --Democratic incumbent with positive or neutral approval
20% --  tie (less than 1%) or positive approval under 45%
40% --  approval 45 - 49%
50%  -- approval 50 - 54%
60%  -- approval 55 - 59%
80% -- approval over 60%

orange --  Democratic incumbent with negative approval

20% --  approval 45 - 49%
40%  -- approval 40 - 44%
50%  -- approval 35 - 39%
80% --  approval under 35%

No governor, governor in transition,  or non-partisan governor -- white.

Positive approval under 45% -- (now treated as if a tie).

The newest poll takes precedence, but no internal polls or polls commissioned by a partisan entity, trade group, or union.
  
 * -- appointed Governor.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2015, 10:39:54 am by pbrower2a »Logged



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« Reply #24 on: December 20, 2015, 11:13:24 am »

Im not to worried, Obama also trailed Republicans in febuary and he still won the state.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=149214.0

HAHA That's like me showing 2004 polls of George Bush during the 2008 campaign.

Hint: Stop it, you look silly.
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