What if McMullin hadn't run?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What would most of his 243,690 Utahn voters have done instead?

[Canis]

I'd say 10% would have gone to trump
5% to clinton 30% to Johnson and the rest would have stayed home

[Dr. MB]

Of the ones who voted, I think it would've been an even split with, of those who voted, 1/3 going to Johnson, 1/3 going to Clinton, and 1/3 going to Trump.

[The Govanah Jake]

Is there any exit polls on this? If no:

35% vote led Trump in the end due to him being the Republican Nominee

25% stayed home seeing there is no good candidates

20% vote for Johnson/Castle

15% vote for Clinton seeing her as the better major party nominee

5% vote for other

[Pericles]

The pre-McMullin Utah 538 forecast  had Trump around 50% and Clinton at 35%, with Johnson in double digits. I think the Johnson vote would still have fallen and many would have gone back to Trump. Maybe something like this.
2016 US presidential election in Utah
Donald Trump(R)-57.13%
Hillary Clinton(D)-33.96%
Gary Johnson(L)-6.50%

[DPKdebator]

The pre-McMullin Utah 538 forecast  had Trump around 50% and Clinton at 35%, with Johnson in double digits. I think the Johnson vote would still have fallen and many would have gone back to Trump. Maybe something like this.
2016 US presidential election in Utah
Donald Trump(R)-57.13%
Hillary Clinton(D)-33.96%
Gary Johnson(L)-6.50%

The Campaign Trail 2016 scenario almost always gives Johnson double digits.

[TML]

There was an exit poll question about this subject for voters in Utah. The results indicate that if there were no other candidates besides Hillary & Trump, 15% of McMullin voters would have voted for Hillary while 11% would have voted for Trump.

[Pericles]

The pre-McMullin Utah 538 forecast  had Trump around 50% and Clinton at 35%, with Johnson in double digits. I think the Johnson vote would still have fallen and many would have gone back to Trump. Maybe something like this.
2016 US presidential election in Utah
Donald Trump(R)-57.13%
Hillary Clinton(D)-33.96%
Gary Johnson(L)-6.50%

The Campaign Trail 2016 scenario almost always gives Johnson double digits.

It was made in March though.

[Mr. Smith]

Probably 55-42-3 for Trump.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Most of those votes would have gone to Trump.

[Santander]

Done the hypocritical conservative thing and voted for Trump.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Without McMullin, I think Trump probably wins Utah by roughly the same margin but both he and Clinton get much more of the vote. maybe he wins 54-38.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

There was an exit poll question about this subject for voters in Utah. The results indicate that if there were no other candidates besides Hillary & Trump, 15% of McMullin voters would have voted for Hillary while 11% would have voted for Trump.

Interesting.

[BigSkyBob]

Then Minnesota would have been even closer, or a Trump win.

Trump wins Utah in a blowout in any case.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Then Minnesota would have been even closer, or a Trump win.

No. Simply no.