PA Map (in my opinion)

[bullmoose88]

We have to see if that increase in GOP vote share is due to party or candidate.

[TeePee4Prez]

We have to see if that increase in GOP vote share is due to party or candidate.

Dent is WAAAAY more moderate than Toomey.

[Keystone Phil]

We have to see if that increase in GOP vote share is due to party or candidate.

Dent is WAAAAY more moderate than Toomey.

But does that make the district moderate? No. Look at the 2004 and 2002 numbers. If Dent being more moderate means that the district is much more moderate, why did it only go for Dent by two points more than it did for Toomey?

That area is growing rapidly. I spend a good amount of time there (I have family who reside in the area). Economic conservatives (young professionals) who stay pretty close to the area's social conservative roots.

[Colin]

Allegheny county as liberal? That is, at best, a stretch. If anything Allegheny is a populist haven just as with most of western PA. Except for possibly Erie I can see no place in Western PA being shaded fully liberal. All of the more Democratic counties, along with a good number of Republican ones, are Populist. In my opinion I would be hard pressed to find a fully liberal area out west, except for some areas of inner-city Pittsburgh. People have to remember that Allegheny county is much more than just Pittsburgh proper.

This is pretty much true. But there are some very liberal areas of Pittsburgh like Oakland that are just as liberal as parts of Philadelphia.

But Oakland really isn't that big. Except for the college vote and some parts of Squirrel Hill and Shady Side Pittsburgh is a populist city and Allegheny is a populist county.

[bullmoose88]

We have to see if that increase in GOP vote share is due to party or candidate.

Dent is WAAAAY more moderate than Toomey.

But does that make the district moderate? No. Look at the 2004 and 2002 numbers. If Dent being more moderate means that the district is much more moderate, why did it only go for Dent by two points more than it did for Toomey?

That area is growing rapidly. I spend a good amount of time there (I have family who reside in the area). Economic conservatives (young professionals) who stay pretty close to the area's social conservative roots.

Ahem...the fact that Dent didn't run against Ed O'Brien (gah...a corpse could beat him)...might explain why the democrats were able to dampen the moderate advantage

[TeePee4Prez]

We have to see if that increase in GOP vote share is due to party or candidate.

Dent is WAAAAY more moderate than Toomey.

But does that make the district moderate? No. Look at the 2004 and 2002 numbers. If Dent being more moderate means that the district is much more moderate, why did it only go for Dent by two points more than it did for Toomey?

That area is growing rapidly. I spend a good amount of time there (I have family who reside in the area). Economic conservatives (young professionals) who stay pretty close to the area's social conservative roots.

Ahem...the fact that Dent didn't run against Ed O'Brien (gah...a corpse could beat him)...might explain why the democrats were able to dampen the moderate advantage

Democrats have been very foolish up in that area.  All they have is Jennifer Mann and T.J. Rooney.  Ed O'Brien was a bad choice for them AND THEY RUN HIM TWICE! 

[Keystone Phil]

We have to see if that increase in GOP vote share is due to party or candidate.

Dent is WAAAAY more moderate than Toomey.

But does that make the district moderate? No. Look at the 2004 and 2002 numbers. If Dent being more moderate means that the district is much more moderate, why did it only go for Dent by two points more than it did for Toomey?

That area is growing rapidly. I spend a good amount of time there (I have family who reside in the area). Economic conservatives (young professionals) who stay pretty close to the area's social conservative roots.

Ahem...the fact that Dent didn't run against Ed O'Brien (gah...a corpse could beat him)...might explain why the democrats were able to dampen the moderate advantage

Ahem...bringing a Main Line liberal up was worse than running O'Brien.

[Cubby]

Why the hell is Lehigh county trending right? Is this true?

More and more young professionals are moving into the area. Economic and social conservative families in the area. The days were unions used to be pretty powerful in the area are over.

Until the New York exurbanites come in, like in Monroe and Pike counties. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Why the hell is Lehigh county trending right? Is this true?

More and more young professionals are moving into the area. Economic and social conservative families in the area. The days were unions used to be pretty powerful in the area are over.

Until the New York exurbanites come in, like in Monroe and Pike counties. 

I think Phil is forgetting that factor.  Lehigh stayed for the Dems, in fact, it went more for Kerry than Gore.  Dent is also WAAY more moderate than Toomey and beat a carpetbagger.  I don't know what the Democrats were thinking with Joe Driscoll.

[Max Power]

Why the hell is Lehigh county trending right? Is this true?

More and more young professionals are moving into the area. Economic and social conservative families in the area. The days were unions used to be pretty powerful in the area are over.

Until the New York exurbanites come in, like in Monroe and Pike counties. 

I think Phil is forgetting that factor.  Lehigh stayed for the Dems, in fact, it went more for Kerry than Gore.  Dent is also WAAY more moderate than Toomey and beat a carpetbagger.  I don't know what the Democrats were thinking with Joe Driscoll.

I agree. Dent, unlike Toomey, is not an extreme-right-winger or a pro-"life" extremist. Dent actually is pretty close to the center, and he would have beat Rooney anyways.

[TeePee4Prez]

Toomey beat a total boob named Ed O'Brien twice.  Toomey came off more prim and proper and O'Brien came off as a flaky union guy.  I will say this- The Democratic party in PA outside of the Philadelphia area had best better get its act together.  There are a couple of "accidents" the Dems had that could have easily been avoided such as Santorum, Hart, Toomey, and now Fitzpatrick had they put up the right candidate.  All of the above people won races they should have never won, but surely they took advantage of Democratic incompetence.  Now we only have Toomey gone and still have 3 young, ultra-conservative nut job Catholics to eliminate.  For some reason, the Dems get scared off by these people and dont' want to do anything to stop them until now.  Hopefully, Chris Heinz decides to take on Melissa Hart and Patrick Murphy can make a run for MIke Fitzpatrick in PA 8.   

[Keystone Phil]

Why the hell is Lehigh county trending right? Is this true?

More and more young professionals are moving into the area. Economic and social conservative families in the area. The days were unions used to be pretty powerful in the area are over.

Until the New York exurbanites come in, like in Monroe and Pike counties. 

I think Phil is forgetting that factor.  Lehigh stayed for the Dems, in fact, it went more for Kerry than Gore.  Dent is also WAAY more moderate than Toomey and beat a carpetbagger.  I don't know what the Democrats were thinking with Joe Driscoll.

The New York exurbanites are already coming in. Kerry barely won. Dent is more moderate yet only did two points better than Toomey did in 2002. The Lehigh Valley, as much as you'd love to see it be moderate-lean left, keeps moving to the right. You might be winning in our area, Flyers but you're losing in Lehigh.

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey beat a total boob named Ed O'Brien twice.  Toomey came off more prim and proper and O'Brien came off as a flaky union guy.  I will say this- The Democratic party in PA outside of the Philadelphia area had best better get its act together.  There are a couple of "accidents" the Dems had that could have easily been avoided such as Santorum, Hart, Toomey, and now Fitzpatrick had they put up the right candidate.  All of the above people won races they should have never won, but surely they took advantage of Democratic incompetence.  Now we only have Toomey gone and still have 3 young, ultra-conservative nut job Catholics to eliminate.  For some reason, the Dems get scared off by these people and dont' want to do anything to stop them until now.  Hopefully, Chris Heinz decides to take on Melissa Hart and Patrick Murphy can make a run for MIke Fitzpatrick in PA 8.   

Heinz can't beat Hart especially since she has a spot on Ways and Means now.

[Colin]

Toomey beat a total boob named Ed O'Brien twice.  Toomey came off more prim and proper and O'Brien came off as a flaky union guy.  I will say this- The Democratic party in PA outside of the Philadelphia area had best better get its act together.  There are a couple of "accidents" the Dems had that could have easily been avoided such as Santorum, Hart, Toomey, and now Fitzpatrick had they put up the right candidate.  All of the above people won races they should have never won, but surely they took advantage of Democratic incompetence.  Now we only have Toomey gone and still have 3 young, ultra-conservative nut job Catholics to eliminate.  For some reason, the Dems get scared off by these people and dont' want to do anything to stop them until now.  Hopefully, Chris Heinz decides to take on Melissa Hart and Patrick Murphy can make a run for MIke Fitzpatrick in PA 8.   

Heinz can't beat Hart especially since she has a spot on Ways and Means now.

Heinz beating Hart? That's near impossible.

[TeePee4Prez]

Why the hell is Lehigh county trending right? Is this true?

More and more young professionals are moving into the area. Economic and social conservative families in the area. The days were unions used to be pretty powerful in the area are over.

Until the New York exurbanites come in, like in Monroe and Pike counties. 

I think Phil is forgetting that factor.  Lehigh stayed for the Dems, in fact, it went more for Kerry than Gore.  Dent is also WAAY more moderate than Toomey and beat a carpetbagger.  I don't know what the Democrats were thinking with Joe Driscoll.

The New York exurbanites are already coming in. Kerry barely won. Dent is more moderate yet only did two points better than Toomey did in 2002. The Lehigh Valley, as much as you'd love to see it be moderate-lean left, keeps moving to the right. You might be winning in our area, Flyers but you're losing in Lehigh.

Two points isn't that much considering how much more moderate Dent is and they carpetbagged someone for crying out loud. 

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey beat a total boob named Ed O'Brien twice.  Toomey came off more prim and proper and O'Brien came off as a flaky union guy.  I will say this- The Democratic party in PA outside of the Philadelphia area had best better get its act together.  There are a couple of "accidents" the Dems had that could have easily been avoided such as Santorum, Hart, Toomey, and now Fitzpatrick had they put up the right candidate.  All of the above people won races they should have never won, but surely they took advantage of Democratic incompetence.  Now we only have Toomey gone and still have 3 young, ultra-conservative nut job Catholics to eliminate.  For some reason, the Dems get scared off by these people and dont' want to do anything to stop them until now.  Hopefully, Chris Heinz decides to take on Melissa Hart and Patrick Murphy can make a run for MIke Fitzpatrick in PA 8.   

Heinz can't beat Hart especially since she has a spot on Ways and Means now.

Heinz beating Hart? That's near impossible.

Thank you. That name can only get you so far. He'd do better than Hart's past challengers, that's for sure, but he still wouldn't win it.

[Keystone Phil]

Two points isn't that much considering how much more moderate Dent is and they carpetbagged someone for crying out loud. 

That's all I hear from you. "He's more moderate." Yes, I understand that. However, that only proves my point that the area is not moderate. If it was, Dent would have broke 60%.

[Colin]

Toomey beat a total boob named Ed O'Brien twice.  Toomey came off more prim and proper and O'Brien came off as a flaky union guy.  I will say this- The Democratic party in PA outside of the Philadelphia area had best better get its act together.  There are a couple of "accidents" the Dems had that could have easily been avoided such as Santorum, Hart, Toomey, and now Fitzpatrick had they put up the right candidate.  All of the above people won races they should have never won, but surely they took advantage of Democratic incompetence.  Now we only have Toomey gone and still have 3 young, ultra-conservative nut job Catholics to eliminate.  For some reason, the Dems get scared off by these people and dont' want to do anything to stop them until now.  Hopefully, Chris Heinz decides to take on Melissa Hart and Patrick Murphy can make a run for MIke Fitzpatrick in PA 8.   

Heinz can't beat Hart especially since she has a spot on Ways and Means now.

Heinz beating Hart? That's near impossible.

Thank you. That name can only get you so far. He'd do better than Hart's past challengers, that's for sure, but he still wouldn't win it.

Well considering that Hart got re-elected with 63% of the vote it would not be that hard to improve.

[bullmoose88]

Patrick Murphy...more democratic cannonfodder in PA 8...

The Bucks County Democratic Party (indeed all PA 8 democrats) need to take a break from inserting their heads up their collective posteriors and run a candidate who can win...not some candidate they'd like to win. At least Fawkes and the county GOP have realized this notion.

The last democrat in this seat was Peter Kostemeyer...a fiscally moderate, socially liberal (well moderately liberal...remember it was the 80s)

A moderate conservative will beat a populist in PA 8 any day of the week. Unless Fitzpatrick has been secretely found to be eating small children and animals.

[Keystone Phil]

Patrick Murphy...more democratic cannonfodder in PA 8...

The Bucks County Democratic Party (indeed all PA 8 democrats) need to take a break from inserting their heads up their collective posteriors and run a candidate who can win...not some candidate they'd like to win. At least Fawkes and the county GOP have realized this notion.

The last democrat in this seat was Peter Kostemeyer...a fiscally moderate, socially liberal (well moderately liberal...remember it was the 80s)

A moderate conservative will beat a populist in PA 8 any day of the week. Unless Fitzpatrick has been secretely found to be eating small children and animals.

Let them think they have a winner, throw tons of money in the race and end up losing elsewhere.    Murphy will be better than Schrader though (not like that's hard to do...)

[bullmoose88]

Patrick Murphy...more democratic cannonfodder in PA 8...

The Bucks County Democratic Party (indeed all PA 8 democrats) need to take a break from inserting their heads up their collective posteriors and run a candidate who can win...not some candidate they'd like to win. At least Fawkes and the county GOP have realized this notion.

The last democrat in this seat was Peter Kostemeyer...a fiscally moderate, socially liberal (well moderately liberal...remember it was the 80s)

A moderate conservative will beat a populist in PA 8 any day of the week. Unless Fitzpatrick has been secretely found to be eating small children and animals.

Let them think they have a winner, throw tons of money in the race and end up losing elsewhere.    Murphy will be better than Schrader though (not like that's hard to do...)

Well Schrader was supposed to be a sacrificial offering to Greenwood...She would have been fortunate to get anything higher than the high 30% range against Jim.

[Keystone Phil]

Well Schrader was supposed to be a sacrificial offering to Greenwood...She would have been fortunate to get anything higher than the high 30% range against Jim.

Yet people, including yourself, thought she had the ability to win the seat once Greenwood announced he was leaving.

[bullmoose88]

Well Schrader was supposed to be a sacrificial offering to Greenwood...She would have been fortunate to get anything higher than the high 30% range against Jim.

Yet people, including yourself, thought she had the ability to win the seat once Greenwood announced he was leaving.

An opportunity...certainly better than what she had against Jim...depending on who fawkes ran...rumor was for years that he wanted an arch conservative to run...(Greenwood in the seat wasn't what he wanted in the first place)...

[Keystone Phil]

Well Schrader was supposed to be a sacrificial offering to Greenwood...She would have been fortunate to get anything higher than the high 30% range against Jim.

Yet people, including yourself, thought she had the ability to win the seat once Greenwood announced he was leaving.

An opportunity...certainly better than what she had against Jim...depending on who fawkes ran...rumor was for years that he wanted an arch conservative to run...(Greenwood in the seat wasn't what he wanted in the first place)...

Well, you didn't just see an opporunity. I should have put that you seemed convinced that PA 8 would be a Dem pickup.

[bullmoose88]

Would you mind finding some quotes from me...I need some egg on my face every once in a while...

probably some "the sky is falling hysteria"...I really wanted Tomlinson to be the guy...but Fitz has won county wide elections in the past...so I couldn't have been absolutely pessmistic...some yeah