NH-ARG: Trump only barely ahead, Kasich strong

[Tender Branson]

21% Trump
15% Rubio
13% Kasich
12% Christie
10% Cruz
  7% Bush
  6% Carson
  5% Fiorina
  4% Paul
  2% Others
  5% Undecided

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http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/rep/nhrep.html

[Pandaguineapig]

Trump has a soft underbelly in the early voting states. I wonder if losing Iowa, Nh, and sc would effectively knock him out

[Tender Branson]

This could be good news for Trump, because usually everything ARG releases turns out to be the opposite ...

Trump might be ~40% in NH.

[Angel of Death]

Is ARG legit now or is it still just a fraud averaging other numbers?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

JUNK POLL!!!!!

[Holmes]

Why even post ARG? lol

Anti-Trump people will only embarass themselves by touting this poll.

[Maxwell]

ARG is below trash.

[Likely Voter]

ARG uses live phone. If this poll is used by Fox B (and they accepted TIPP so why wouldn't they accept ARG?) then Kasich jumps into 5th place in avg of last 5 NH polls. So Kasich is back into the main debate.

[Torie]

Wow, the Trump/Cruz axis of evil is down to a third of the vote. If this poll is accurate, this is proof positive that there is in fact a God.

I just predicted elsewhere that Kasich would drop out before NH. Scratch that - if this poll is accurate.

[yankeesfan]

Junk poll.  I refuse to believe that Kasich is at 13%.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Even if we take seriously ARGHHHHH, a 6% difference isn't "barely ahead".

[Holmes]

Wow, the Trump/Cruz axis of evil is down to a third of the vote. If this poll is accurate, this is proof positive that there is in fact a God.

I just predicted elsewhere that Kasich would drop out before NH. Scratch that - if this poll is accurate.

Torie I think you're smart enough not to believe an ARG poll.

[Torie]

Wow, the Trump/Cruz axis of evil is down to a third of the vote. If this poll is accurate, this is proof positive that there is in fact a God.

I just predicted elsewhere that Kasich would drop out before NH. Scratch that - if this poll is accurate.

Torie I think you're smart enough not to believe an ARG poll.

It probably is an outlier, but I want to believe it.

[Senator Cris]

Taking a look at 2012 ARG primary polls, looks like they weren't so bad, expecially in NH and SC (here they exactly predicted Romney's and Gingrich's %)

[Maxwell]

Taking a look at 2012 ARG primary polls, looks like they weren't so bad, expecially in NH and SC (here they exactly predicted Romney's and Gingrich's %)

Gravis was close in 2014. You think Gravis is a good pollster?

[mds32]

Taking a look at 2012 ARG primary polls, looks like they weren't so bad, expecially in NH and SC (here they exactly predicted Romney's and Gingrich's %)

Gravis was close in 2014. You think Gravis is a good pollster?

Same logic applied, PPP was close in 2012. Do you think PPP is a good pollster?

[President Johnson]

Trump's polling numbers vary very much in New Hampshire. It's between 18 and 35%. But he's always in the lead.

[Mr. Morden]

Taking a look at 2012 ARG primary polls, looks like they weren't so bad, expecially in NH and SC (here they exactly predicted Romney's and Gingrich's %)

Here's the thing with ARG: In the early primaries of 2008, they weren't just bad.  They were producing numbers that were roughly the opposite of reality.  Whatever side of the polling average they were on, the final vote tally would end up on the opposite side.  Then after Super Tuesday, they suddenly started producing reasonable numbers.  My assumption is that they started cheating by making up numbers that looked more reasonable than what their awful polls were saying, but I have no proof of this.

[Maxwell]

Taking a look at 2012 ARG primary polls, looks like they weren't so bad, expecially in NH and SC (here they exactly predicted Romney's and Gingrich's %)

Gravis was close in 2014. You think Gravis is a good pollster?

Same logic applied, PPP was close in 2012. Do you think PPP is a good pollster?

PPP doesn't (always) produce outlandish results that don't reflect reality, so yes, I think PPP is a good pollster. They don't show Kasich at 13% after many polls show him dipping to 6-7% after being above 10% for a long time.

[Kingpoleon]

His offices, Women For Kasich, and he's hitting the eight-week stretch. Christie'a been building a ground game for two weeks, and Kasich has for ten or twelve times as long. This is a good sign, and I wouldnt mind it if this was the actual result.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Never change ARG

[Senator Cris]

Taking a look at 2012 ARG primary polls, looks like they weren't so bad, expecially in NH and SC (here they exactly predicted Romney's and Gingrich's %)

Gravis was close in 2014. You think Gravis is a good pollster?

I'm not saying this. I don't think ARG is a good pollster. Take a look at their GE poll: totally wrong.
I'm just reporting that ARG wasn't so so bad in 2012 NH/SC primary polls. I'm not saying ARG is a good pollster.