Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])

[Hatman 🍁]

Discuss by-elections of all levels: Federal, provincial, municipal.

There are several provincial vacancies at the moment, none have by-election dates set that I know of:

- Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, BC
- Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, BC
- Calgary-Greenway, AB
- Whitby-Oshawa, ON
- Chicoutimi, QC

Have I forgotten any?

Some notable municipal by-elections coming up, almost all caused by people being elected in last October's federal election:

- January 18: Mayor of Brooks, Alberta (vacated when mayor Martin Shields was elected to parliament for the riding of Bow River)
- January 23: Councillor for District 6 in Halifax, NS (vacated when cllr Darren Fisher was elected to parliament for the riding of Dartmouth-Cole Harbour)
- January 25: Councillor for Ward 1 in Pickering, ON (vacated when cllr Jennifer O'Connell was elected to parliament for the riding of Pickering-Uxbridge)
- January 31: Councillor for District 6 in Granby, QC (vacated upon the resignation of cllr Serges Ruel)
- February 1: Councillor for Ward 2 in Sault Ste. Marie, ON (vacated when cllr Terry Sheehan was elected to parliament for the riding of Sault Ste. Marie)
- February 1: Councillor for Ward 7 in Barrie, ON (vacated when cllr John Brassard was elected to parliament for the riding of Barrie-Innisfil)
- February 14: Councillor for District 8 in Longueuil, QC (vacated upon the death of cllr Albert Beaudry)
- February 22: Councillor for Ward 12 in Edmonton, AB (vacated when cllr Amarjeet Sohi was elected to parliament for the riding of Edmonton Mill Woods)
- March 6: Mayor of Loarraine, QC (vacated when mayor Ramez Ayoub was elected to parliament for the riding of Therese-De Blainville)
- March 21: Councillor for Ward 7 in Hamilton, ON (vacated when cllr Scott Duvall was elected to parliament for the riding of Hamilton Mountain)

That's all I could find, for now.

[Njall]

The Ward 12 by-election in Edmonton should be interesting, if for no other reason than the fact that there are currently 25 declared candidates.  That said, the filing date is in late January, so the actual number of candidates may be less.

Alberta political blogger Dave Cournoyer has pages on his website tracking the candidates for the Calgary-Greenway and Edmonton Ward 12 by-elections.

[136or142]

Jodie Wickens the Executive Director of the B.C Autism Support Network won the NDP nomination in Coquitlam-Burke Mountain.  

http://www.tricitynews.com/news/wickens-wins-bc-ndp-nod-1.2127404

It's interesting the rise from almost nowhere of directors and executive directors of non profit charity or advocacy organizations as NDP candidates and MLAs. Directors and executive directors now make up the largest number of New Democratic MLAs prior occupations in B.C

They include
1.Shane Simpson, Director of Policy and Communications for Smart Growth B.C
2.Adrian Dix, Executive Director Canadian Parents for French (Education), B.C and Yukon branch
3.George Heyman, Executive Director Sierra Club B.C
4.David Eby, Executive Director B.C Civil Liberties Association
5.Selina Robinson,  Director of Development for SHARE Family and Community Services
6.Sue Hammell, Executive Director Surrey Aboriginal Society
7.Katrine Conroy, Executive Director Kootenay Family Place
8.Doug Donaldson, Director Storyteller's Foundation (a local economic development non profit organization)

Also, I heard B.C dick of the decade Michael Smyth on CKNW this morning with John McComb and, as usual, he was being a dick by giving the most cynical explanation on the delay in the calling of these upcoming by-elections, and, said that he was 'Outraged!' that the by-elections hadn't been called already. As usual, his cynicism and his Outrage! was backed up by his idiocy.

I'm actually going to defend Christy Clark here for not calling the by-elections yet.  The Federal election was on October 21, and Christmas season starts in early December. I suppose she did have a narrow window to have the by-elections held sometime in mid november, but I'm going to cut her some slack for simply believing the timing during that period also didn't work.

Smyth's rationale for the delay was that she's trying to avoid the negative coverage of a potential Liberal loss in Coquitlam-Burke Mountain.  Yes, because losing this by-election right before Christmas would have resulted in tons of coverage, but losing this by-election probably right before the spring Legislative session will result in it being largely ignored.  I'd like to know how this dimwitted dick got and keeps his job.  I know he works for a joke of a newspaper, but still.

[andrew_c]

By elections in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant and Coquitlam-Burke Mountain called for Feb 2. 

http://www.vancouversun.com/premier+picks+metro+vancouver+elections/11632200/story.html

[Poirot]

The federal election has caused 8 by-elections at the municipal level in Quebec. Lorraine mayor is listed in the first post. Election in District 3 in Granby to replace Pierre Breton already took place in December.

On February 21, mayor for Victoriaville to replace Alain Rayes (elected MP Richmond-Arthabaska). The official period for candidacies is January 8 to 22 but it looks like candidates will be André Bellavance, former MP, and André Guillemette, insurance broker.

February 21 is also the date for councillor of district 7, Saint-Sacrement, in Saint-Hyacinthe to replace Brigitte Sansoucy elected MP Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot.

February 28, councillor for district 15, Lac-Beauchamp, in Gatineau to replace Stéphane Lauzon who was elected MP for Argenteuil - La Petite-Nation. Probable candidates are Liza Lauzon, just finishing her university studies and trying to win the seat vacated by her father, businessman Jean-François LeBlanc, and Caroline Desrochers, working for Quebec municipal affairs, representing Action Gatineau party.

February 28 is also the date to elect a new préfet for the MRC Rocher-Percé. That job was held by Diane Lebouthillier now MP for Gaspésie- Iles-de-la-Madeleine. Many people seem interested to run.

March 6, councillor district 1 Saint-Philippe-de-La Prairie to replace Jean-Claude Poissant elected MP for La Prairie.

There needs to be a by-election for mayor of Côte Saint-Luc (Anthony Housefather was elected MP Mont-Royal) but I have not found a date.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks, Poirot. Those by-elections weren't listed on Elections Quebec.

There will be a territorial by-election on February 8 in the riding of Netsilik in Nunavut following the resignation of MLA Jeannie Ugyuk.

[Krago]

The by-election to replace Shaun Chen (new Liberal MP for Scarborough North) as the Toronto District School Board trustee for Ward 21 (Scarborough-Rouge River) will take place on Monday, January 25.

There are 20 candidates running for the position.

[Hatman 🍁]

The by-election to replace Shaun Chen (new Liberal MP for Scarborough North) as the Toronto District School Board trustee for Ward 21 (Scarborough-Rouge River) will take place on Monday, January 25.

There are 20 candidates running for the position.

I was aware of this, but I purposely omitted school board elections.

What I don't get is that Toronto eschews by-elections for city council (the most important city council in the country), but has no problem holding by-elections for school board? Nobody cares about school board elections, and no one - not even me - would care if they just appointed someone to fill out the rest of the term.

My experience reading up on past school board by-elections is that turnout is nearly non existent.  A trustee by-election in Calgary last year had a 5% turnout and one this fall in Chilliwack had a turnout of 3%. There are other examples I'm sure, but that is what I found from a quick Google search.

[Hatman 🍁]

Of course, now that I've read more about the by-election, my interest is piqued at the prospect of a Neethan Shan victory. He came pretty close to winning the riding in the provincial election for the NDP.

[lilTommy]

Of course, now that I've read more about the by-election, my interest is piqued at the prospect of a Neethan Shan victory. He came pretty close to winning the riding in the provincial election for the NDP.

He came second in the City Council race in 2014 as well in Ward 42. Former ONDP President to boot.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think the super low turnout will help him. He probably has a certain degree of personal popularity, which helps in these sorts of situations.

[DC Al Fine]

The candidate list for the byelection caused by Darren Fisher's election in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour has been finalized.

1) David Boyd - Perennial candidate
2) Tony Mancini - Son of former NDP MP Peter Mancini and NDP MLA Marian Mancini.
3) Don Smeltzer - Pre-amalgamation councillor for part of the district. Leans right.
4) Matt Spurway - Robert Chisolm staffer.

My prediction is for Mancini to win. The district is quite poor, so I think the odds of the left splitting their vote and allowing Smeltzer to win aren't great.

[lilTommy]

By elections in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant and Coquitlam-Burke Mountain called for Feb 2. 

http://www.vancouversun.com/premier+picks+metro+vancouver+elections/11632200/story.html

The main candidates: (with links to their party pages)
http://www.cknw.com/2016/01/05/premier-calls-by-elections-for-vancouver-mount-pleasant-coquitlam-burke-mountain/

- Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
BC Liberal - Joan Isaacs
NDP - Jodie Wickens
BC Green Party - Joe Keithley

- Vancouver-Mount Pleasant
BC Liberal - Gavin Dew
NDP - Melanie Mark
BC Green Party - Pete Fry

[Hatman 🍁]

I gather the BC Conservatives will not be contesting?

[lilTommy]

Ugh, the Ontario Liberals are just terrible:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/01/06/kathleen-wynne-radio-ad_n_8923440.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics&ir=Canada+Politics

no by-election called yet and they have radio ads out (is that not illegal?) worse, she is spouting bold. faced. lies about energy (go figure, seeing that the partial privatization by the OLP is supported but almost no one)

[136or142]

I gather the BC Conservatives will not be contesting?

The B.C Conservative leader just announced he'll step down once the party holds its AGM (not a leadership convention) sometime in late February 2016.

[DC Al Fine]

Ugh, the Ontario Liberals are just terrible:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/01/06/kathleen-wynne-radio-ad_n_8923440.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics&ir=Canada+Politics

no by-election called yet and they have radio ads out (is that not illegal?) worse, she is spouting bold. faced. lies about energy (go figure, seeing that the partial privatization by the OLP is supported but almost no one)

According to this iPolitics article, it's legal. Of course, the ad itself is nonsense.

[Lotuslander]

Some thoughts on these by-elections:

Vancouver-Mount Pleasant

- strongest/safest BC NDP seat in BC.

BC Liberal - Gavin Dew
- sacrificial lamb and will likely place 3rd;

BC NDP - Melanie Mark
- worked in the office of the Child and Youth Advocate;
- running aggressive campaign and obvious by-election winner;

BC Green Party - Pete Fry
- only candidate that actually lives in the riding;
- former president of Strathcona Residents Association;
- During November, 2014 Van City municipal election, Fry ran as civic Green and topped polls (first place out of 10 council spots) in the local Strathcona, Mt Pleasant and Commercial Drive neighbourhoods within riding;
- running aggressive campaign;


Coquitlam-Burke Mountain

- suburban, centre-right demographics with high-end demographics in the Westwood Plateau and booming Burke Mountain residential areas;

BC Liberal - Joan Isaacs
- only candidate that actually lives in riding;
- involved in numerous local community groups/organizations;
-running aggressive campaign;


NDP - Jodie Wickens
- Executive director of the Autism Support Network;
- running aggressive campaign;

BC Green Party - Joe Keithley
- ran for the BC NDP nomination here in 2013 but lost;
- known as Joey sh**thead from the band D.O.A.;
- running aggressive campaign;

http://www.tricitynews.com/news/meet-candidates-in-coquitlam-burke-mountain-1.2146959

Historically, incumbent govt's have a poor track record of winning by-elections in B.C.:

1. 1966 - Socred Robert Bonner wins Cariboo by-election;

2. 1981 - Socred Claude Richmond wins Kamloops by-election;
(back then Vancouver Sun political columnist Marjorie Nichols stated that the BC NDP could run a broom in the by-election and still win - riding poll had BC NDP 20 points ahead;

3. 2011 -  Christy Clark wins Vancouver-Point Grey by-election after winning BC Liberal leadership;

4. 2013 - Christy Clark wins Westside-Kelowna by-election;

As for the BC Conservative Party, its leader Dan Brooks recently stepped down - was a volunteer position that did not come with a pay cheque. They have received absolutely ZERO media attention in BC since 2013... recent filings with Elections BC show the party in massive debt... and it's mired in internal in-fighting and lawsuits. As long-time Global BC political reporter recently posted on Twitter: "The BC Cons are just a fringe party".

So back to the by-elections. What I will be looking for:

1. Will the BC Greens increase their popular vote share? And by how much? Will that eat into the BC NDP popular vote share?

2. Will the BC Liberals buck the historical trend and win the C-BM by-election?

The foregoing will have major implications heading toward the May, 2017 BC provincial election methinks.

[RogueBeaver]

Wynne will call Whitby-Oshawa for Feb. 11.

[Hatman 🍁]

Pretty sure the Tories will hold it. Kathleen Wynne may be less popular than even Selinger at this point.

[lilTommy]

Hamilton Ward 7
Uzma Qureshi looks to be the de-facto NDP (left-Liberal) candidate; NDP MP Christopherson and NDP MPP Taylor were there and a Liberal Candidate from Hamilton-Mountain

https://twitter.com/Uzmaqk/status/686603936720097280/photo/1?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=Uzmaqk&utm_content=686603936720097280

List of other candidates I saw so far:
Damin Starr
Tim Gordon
Geraldine McMullen
Hans Zuriel
Robert Bolton
Philip Bradshaw
John-Paul Danko
Doug Farraway
Gregory Lenko
Anthony Nicholl
Howard Rabb

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet poll of Whitby-Oshawa:

Lorne Coe (PC): 37%
Elizabeth Roy (Lib): 29%
Niki Lundquist (NDP): 6%

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com//news/canada/whitby-oshawa-byelection-shaping-up-to-be-a-two-way-race-between-liberals-and-tories

[Hatman 🍁]

Because I love low energy municipal by-elections...

Brooks mayoral by-election is today (following previous mayor Martin Shields' election to the House of Commons).

Brooks is a city of ~15,000 in Southern Alberta between Calgary and Medicine Hat.

The city is very conservative. It overwhelmingly voted for the Wildrose Party in last year's provincial election, and it voted overwhelmingly Tory in the 2011 federal election, and presumably in 2015 too, since the mayor was the candidate. In 2012, the city was split between Wildrose and the PCs.

Shields was first elected mayor in 2007 when it was an open seat, defeating Carol Secondiak 57% to 43%. In 2010 he was re-elected with 86% of the vote, defeating Patrick Ketchmark. In 2013, he won 72% of the vote, defeating two other candidates.

The by-election will feature  city councillor Barry Morish**ta against lawyer Sarah Bisbee. There will also be a council by-election to fill Morish**ta's seat, as he resigned in order to run.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Unofficial final results for Brooks AB by election Jan18th

Mayor
Barry Morish**ta (X)1561
Sarah Bisbee 877

City Council
Dennis Seibel (X) 767
Michael Glynn Macdonald 596
Brian Curtis 465
Mohammed Idriss 307
Ahmed Kassem 134
Michael Nordfjeld 92
Les Virovec 52

X = elected

Source http://www.brooks.ca/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=495:election-2016&catid=39:services-and-departments

[Hatman 🍁]

Gotta love the censors. That should be Barry Morishita