Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])

[136or142]

I suspect that in the current political environment in Saskatchewan, the NDP would be heavily favoured to win Meewasin in a byelection. I wonder if Cam Broten would try to make a comeback by running there? Or what about Ryan Meili? Or the woman who ran for the NDP last April who was seen as having done well. It would be a natural place to run for anyone not currently an MLA who might have ambitions to run for the Sask NDP leadership

Interesting. I thought the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race would be between 'outsider' Ryan Meili vs. 'insider' Cathy Sproule.

Of course, Roger Parent's death sucks especially given how relatively sudden it was.

[RogueBeaver]

Missed this: Mathieu Fleury won't run for Ottawa Vanier.

[Hatman 🍁]

Missed this: Mathieu Fleury won't run for Ottawa Vanier.

Damn. Was hoping he'd run so he could be replaced by a proper progressive on city council. His ward should only be electing progressives, even if it always votes Liberal in federal/provincial elections.

[RogueBeaver]

Good Le Devoir preview of Monday's voting here, particularly the potentially interesting ones in Arthabaska and Saint-Jerome.

[MaxQue]

Seems incumbent party wins in all 4.

Through, surprisingly, the closest one isn't Arthabaska or St-Jérôme, but Verdun. PQ-QS alliance would easily win, too. It's like 35 Liberal, 28 PQ, 20 QS.

[MaxQue]

PQ declared victory in Marie-Victorin, and I would call Arthabaska for the CAQ.

Seems Liberal in Verdun and PQ in St-Jérôme, but I would wait a bit to call them.

[MaxQue]

Marie-Victorin has a funny 2nd place race.

Currently: Liberal 425, CAQ 423, QS 422 (with PQ at 1496).

Radio-Canada called Arthabaska for the CAQ (and Marie-Victorin a while ago).

[MaxQue]

With 55/155, Liberal majority is only 287 over PQ. Keep an eye on that one.

[MaxQue]

Marie-Victorin continues the 3-way 2nd place tie:
QS 464, Liberal 463, CAQ 461 (with PQ at 1618).

[MaxQue]

With 55/155, Liberal majority is only 287 over PQ. Keep an eye on that one.

577 now.

[MaxQue]

St-Jérôme called for PQ.

[MaxQue]

TV is saying it depends if Nuns Island is counted yet or not. If it's not counted, Liberals are safe, if they are already counted, it might be a long night.

[MaxQue]

In any case, very bad night for Liberals, they are down in all ridings, and sometimes they lose half their share.

[MaxQue]

Keeping Verdun for the Liberals isn't really a good news, last time they lost it was in 1936.

[Poirot]

Probably because of low turnout of by-election. The PLQ would get more than 35% in a general election I imagine. And not be in 4th in Marie-Victorin. QS is second in Marie-Victorin and with a good result in Verdun they do well in the two seats closest to Montreal.

[MaxQue]

Verdun called for Liberals.

[MaxQue]

Arthabaska (turnout: 43.14%)
Éric Lefebvre (CAQ) 11316 votes (43.96%; -1.53)
Luc Dastous (PLQ) 7095 votes (27.56%; -2.65)
Jacques Daigle (PQ) 4318 votes (16.77%; -0.30)
Guy Morin (Conservative) 1210 votes (4.70%; +3.59)
Sarah Beaudoin (QS) 929 votes (3.61%; -1.60)
Alex Tyrrell (Green) 543 votes (2.11%; +1.21)
Émilie Charbonneau (Option Nationale) 160 votes (0.62%)
Christine Lavoie (Independentist Party) 115 votes (0.45%)
Suzanne Cantin (Autonomist Team) 58 votes (0.23%)

Marie-Victorin (turnout: 25.71%)
Catherine Fournier (PQ) 6302 votes (52.49%; +14.32)
Carl Lévesque (QS) 1703 votes (14.19%; +2.63)
Julie Chapdelaine (CAQ) 1699 votes (14.15%; -6.45)
Normand Parisien (PLQ) 1613 votes (13.44%; -12.61)
Vincent Carbonneau (Green) 315 votes (2.62%; +0.30)
Fabien Villemaire (Option Nationale) 109 votes (0.91%; +0.11)
Roch Dumont (Labour) 101 votes (0.84%)
Hoang Nam Nguyen (Conservative) 90 votes (0.75%)
Shirley Cedent (Change Integrity for Our Québec) 30 votes (0.25%)
Florent Portron (Autonomist Team) 22 votes (0.18%; +0.04)
Étienne Turgeon Pelletier (Independentist Party) 21 votes (0.17%)

Saint-Jérôme (turnout: 33.95%)
Marc Bourcier (PQ) 9151 votes (46.25%; +9.44)
Bruno Laroche (CAQ) 7016 votes (35.46%; +3.94)
Naömie Goyette (PLQ) 2092 votes (10.57%; -9.39)
Marcel Gosselin (QS) 867 votes (4.38%; -6.38)
Émilianne Lépine (Green) 407 votes (2.06%)
Olivier Lamanque Galarneau (Option Nationale) 88 votes (0.44%; -0.10)
Sébastien Roy (Conservative) 67 votes (0.34%; -0.07)
Sengtiane Trempe (Independentist Party) 40 votes (0.20%)
Éric Émond (Change Integrity for Our Québec) 34 votes (0.17%)
Louis Chandonnet (Autonomist Team) 23 votes (0.12%)

Verdun (turnout: 29.15%)
Isabelle Melançon (PLQ) 5116 votes (35.61%; -14.98)
Richard Langlais (PQ) 3900 votes (27.15%; +2.78)
Véronique Martineau (QS) 2669 votes (18.58%; +8.93)
Ginette Marotte (CAQ) 1829 votes (12.73%; +0.50)
David Cox (Green) 615 votes (4.28%; +2.18)
Frédéric Dénommé (Option Nationale) 115 votes (0.80%; +0.33)
David Girard (Conservative) 94 votes (0.65%)
Sébastien Poirier (Autonomist Team) 27 votes (0.19%)

[Krago]

Arthabaska (turnout: 43.14%)
Éric Lefebvre (CAQ) 11316 votes (43.96%; -1.53)
Luc Dastous (PLQ) 7095 votes (27.56%; -2.65)
Jacques Daigle (PQ) 4318 votes (16.77%; -0.30)
Guy Morin (Conservative) 1210 votes (4.70%; +3.59)
Sarah Beaudoin (QS) 929 votes (3.61%; -1.60)
Alex Tyrrell (Green) 543 votes (2.11%; +1.21)
Émilie Charbonneau (Option Nationale) 160 votes (0.62%)
Christine Lavoie (Independentist Party) 115 votes (0.45%)
Suzanne Cantin (Autonomist Team) 58 votes (0.23%)

So, the Liberals, BQ, CAQ and Quebec Solidaire ALL lost vote share in Arthabaska?  Fascinating.

[lilTommy]

FINALLY Ryan Meili is going to run for Office. Seeking the NDP nomination in the upcoming Saskatoon Meewasin by-election. Says he has the support of prior Candidate Nicole White who lost to Parent by just over 500 votes... He says hes not considering a run, but this is the first step to getting the elected political experience he's missing for a leadership run.

http://thestarphoenix.com/news/local-news/ryan-meili-to-seek-ndp-nomination-in-saskatoon-meewasin

[RogueBeaver]

Provincial Sault Ste. Marie: David Oriazetti is quitting politics. First Red-Orange battle in a while.

[Hatman 🍁]

Provincial Sault Ste. Marie: David Oriazetti is quitting politics. First Red-Orange battle in a while.

If it is a straight "red-orange" battle, than the Liberals will win. The NDP only can win the Sault if the Tories do well.  The Tories may very well do well in the Sault though (don't forget it went Tory federally from 2011-2015).

[Hatman 🍁]

Kevin Chief, the NDP MLA for Point Douglas (Manitoba) has resigned. Can't imagine this is anything but an NDP hold, no matter how unpopular the NDP is in Manitoba. Maybe if the Liberals weren't in total disarray there. 

[toaster]

Provincial Sault Ste. Marie: David Oriazetti is quitting politics. First Red-Orange battle in a while.

If it is a straight "red-orange" battle, than the Liberals will win. The NDP only can win the Sault if the Tories do well.  The Tories may very well do well in the Sault though (don't forget it went Tory federally from 2011-2015).

Much of the "red" here was only "red" for Oriazetti and not for Wynne or the party.  That along with the unpopular hydro fiasco and a higher Ontario PC will certainly help the ONDP pick this up. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Provincial Sault Ste. Marie: David Oriazetti is quitting politics. First Red-Orange battle in a while.

If it is a straight "red-orange" battle, than the Liberals will win. The NDP only can win the Sault if the Tories do well.  The Tories may very well do well in the Sault though (don't forget it went Tory federally from 2011-2015).

Much of the "red" here was only "red" for Oriazetti and not for Wynne or the party.  That along with the unpopular hydro fiasco and a higher Ontario PC will certainly help the ONDP pick this up. 

Could we even see an orange-blue race?

Problem is the provincial NDP has been rather incompetent lately. I can't imagine they will be able to find a very good candidate. I mean, all they could find for Ottawa-Vanier was the brother of an MPP no one in the city has heard of from far away riding.

[Poirot]

For the federal Ottawa-Vanier, the Liberal nomination is not until late January. So far they have 9 candidates and 2500 members.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-droit/politique/politique-federale/201612/09/01-5050006-les-candidats-devront-attendre-a-la-fin-janvier.php

The NDP nominated (uncontested) Emilie Taman (daughter of former Justice Louise Arbour). She was the candidate last election.