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Author Topic: NH-PPP: Dems up  (Read 3768 times)
yeah_93
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« on: January 08, 2016, 03:50:45 pm »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_10816.pdf

And Trump fares the worst.

vs Clinton

Clinton 45
Rubio 42

Clinton 46
Bush 40

Clinton 48
Cruz 40

Clinton 59
Carson 39

Clinton 50
Trump 36

vs Sanders

Sanders 50
Bush 38

Sanders 51
Rubio 37

Sanders 53
Carson 34

Sanders 54
Cruz 34

Sanders 54
Cruz 34

3 WAY!

Clinton 43
Rubio 29
Trump 20

Clinton 47
Cruz 28
Trump 18

Quote
Public Policy Polling surveyed 1,036 registered voters from January 4th to 6th. The margin of
error for the survey is +/-3.0%. 80% of participants, selected through a list based sample,
responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the
survey over the internet through an opt-in internet panel
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Never Beto
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« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2016, 04:09:06 pm »

Carson's low numbers may be an unfortunate result of racial tension in the Boston suburbs.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2016, 04:14:07 pm »

Carson's low numbers may be an unfortunate result of racial tension in the Boston suburbs.

Mhm.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2016, 04:45:29 pm »

Pretty impressive poll for Sanders actually.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2016, 04:46:03 pm »

Good, good.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
sjkqw
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« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2016, 04:47:26 pm »

In b4 TNVolunteer does whatever he does.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #6 on: January 08, 2016, 04:52:20 pm »

The Clinton/Carson number should be 50-39, not 59-39
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Free Bird
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« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2016, 04:54:34 pm »

Even if I'm not shocked if the Democrats win New Hampshire, this seems a bit generous still
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EliteLX
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« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2016, 05:17:10 pm »

But muh "white independents LOVE trump!"

These are exactly on par with how I would imagine the real numbers to look for just about all candidates on November 8th. No surprise here.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2016, 05:22:42 pm by EliteLX »Logged
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« Reply #9 on: January 08, 2016, 07:56:54 pm »

Img


At this point, New Hampshire is about as competitive as Vermont and Hawaii. There really is no difference anymore.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2016, 12:35:55 am by TNvolunteer »Logged
Cruzcrew
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« Reply #10 on: January 08, 2016, 08:54:02 pm »

Carson's low numbers may be an unfortunate result of racial tension in the Boston suburbs.
Or he's not a good fit for secular moderates? Where did you get the idea of racial tensions there?
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Never Beto
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« Reply #11 on: January 08, 2016, 09:06:37 pm »

Carson's low numbers may be an unfortunate result of racial tension in the Boston suburbs.
Or he's not a good fit for secular moderates? Where did you get the idea of racial tensions there?

Is it not common knowledge that Boston has the most racial tension in the northeast?
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jfern
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« Reply #12 on: January 08, 2016, 09:22:52 pm »

Pretty impressive poll for Sanders actually.

Especially given that PPP is not very friendly to Bernie in the primary. His primary margin is 16 points better in the Fox poll.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: January 09, 2016, 01:41:48 am »

Notice how Bernie does an average of 10 points better than Hillary against the top-3 Republicans.

He leads them by an average of 18% (!), while Hillary only leads them by 8%.

Also, Sanders' favorable ratings in NH are the only ones in positive territory:

55-35 Sanders
39-53 Clinton
34-49 Rubio
31-54 Cruz
30-64 Trump


Which re-inforces the point that Sanders is our last hope: He's doing wayyyy better than Hillary in states where both have roughly 100% name recogntion.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #14 on: January 09, 2016, 01:46:12 am »

TNVolunteer may have a point about New Hampshire after all.
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Hillary pays minimum wage
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« Reply #15 on: January 09, 2016, 01:46:59 am »

PPP is PPP (D) so it's always favoring Democrats.  Polls in general show Democrats leading in most places so I'm not impressed.  Show me something the night before the election that has a proportional number of voters from both parties.  Bush Sr. and his son were always losing in polls and they did very well.  Mondale and Dukakis led by 17 once each.  Ask Hillary Clinton how well leading in the polls going into the primaries did for her.  Lastly, NH has only 4 EV and it's more likely it'll go Democrat as it has since 2000 so is any of this worth posting?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: January 09, 2016, 02:03:25 am »

PPP is PPP (D) so it's always favoring Democrats.  Polls in general show Democrats leading in most places so I'm not impressed.  Show me something the night before the election that has a proportional number of voters from both parties.  Bush Sr. and his son were always losing in polls and they did very well.  Mondale and Dukakis led by 17 once each.  Ask Hillary Clinton how well leading in the polls going into the primaries did for her.  Lastly, NH has only 4 EV and it's more likely it'll go Democrat as it has since 2000 so is any of this worth posting?

PPP is one of the best traditional pollsters operating in multiple states. If anything it usually has a slight R bias in results.

Dislike the results? Tough. Results that swing from one poll to another may reflect events more than anything else.

It may be 'only' New Hampshire... but it confirms what I thought could be happening, including the collapse of the Carson campaign and  the weakening credibility of Donald Trump.

We may be getting some indications of how some other states are going. This weekend, PPP reports on Iowa. In the middle of the week we will have two PPP polls about states that have both gone R one time in the last six Presidential elections.   
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madelka
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« Reply #17 on: January 09, 2016, 03:48:44 am »

I agree with TNVol here. Those are terrible numbers for Republicans. They shouldn't really bother with NH unless 2016 turns out to be a Republican wave (lol).
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madelka
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« Reply #18 on: January 09, 2016, 03:50:07 am »

Even if I'm not shocked if the Democrats win New Hampshire, this seems a bit generous still

Why do you have NH colored blue on your map? lol
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olowakandi
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« Reply #19 on: January 09, 2016, 05:19:25 am »

Polling is about to start in early prumaries and voters are begining to pay attention. Dems are gonna make up ground on the GOP now, NH is a Lean D state.
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Torie
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« Reply #20 on: January 09, 2016, 09:08:51 am »

Img


At this point, New Hampshire is about as competitive as Vermont and Hawaii. There really is no difference anymore.

Carson's low numbers may be an unfortunate result of racial tension in the Boston suburbs.

Mhm.

He's a black man, did you expect him to poll well in NH? lol Those angry white women know how to stick it to the black guy and the Hispanic boy!

You're not one of those posters who thinks that PPP has a Dem bias I take it. Right? Myself, I have no opinion on the matter, but many posters seem to. Or is it only outside NH that PPP has a Dem bias. Smiley
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« Reply #21 on: January 09, 2016, 09:42:37 am »

You're not one of those posters who thinks that PPP has a Dem bias I take it. Right?

No. These numbers look painfully accurate. I'm just glad that those angry women are honest about who they are going to support, so that this whole "NH IS THE MOST ELASTIC OF ELASTIC ELASTY TOOSUPPY TOOSUPS!11"  nonsense can stop. Smiley
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #22 on: January 09, 2016, 10:03:04 am »

Carson's low numbers may be an unfortunate result of racial tension in the Boston suburbs.
Or he's not a good fit for secular moderates? Where did you get the idea of racial tensions there?

Is it not common knowledge that Boston has the most racial tension in the northeast?
Haven't heard of it in New Jersey.
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #23 on: January 09, 2016, 10:04:35 am »

New Hampshire is inelastic and only has 4 electoral votes. There's better places to spend republican resources in a general election.
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Devils30
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« Reply #24 on: January 09, 2016, 11:39:47 am »

Cruz is a terrible fit for non-religious NH.
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