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Author Topic: IA/NH - NBC/WSJ/Marist: Sanders strongly outperforms Clinton against GOP  (Read 3029 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: January 10, 2016, 09:30:13 am »

Sanders outperforms Clinton in general-election matchups

The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls also show that Sanders outperforms Clinton in hypothetical general-election matchups in these two presidential battleground states - something other surveys have found, too.

In Iowa:

Clinton leads Trump by eight points among registered voters (48 percent to 40 percent), but Sanders is ahead of him by 13 (51 percent to 38 percent);

Cruz tops Clinton by four points (47 percent to 43 percent), but Sanders beats him by five (47 percent to 42 percent);

And up Rubio is up by five points over Clinton (47 percent to 42 percent), while he's tied with Sanders (44 percent to 44 percent).

In New Hampshire:

Clinton is ahead of Trump by just one point (45 percent to 44 percent), but Sanders tops him by 19 points (56 percent to 37 percent);

Cruz beats Clinton by four points (48 percent to 44 percent), but Sanders leads him by another 19 points (55 percent to 36 percent);

And Rubio bests Clinton by 12 points (52 percent to 40 percent), while Sanders leads him by nine points (50 percent to 41 percent).

The primary reason why Sanders tests better in these general-election matchups is due to his stronger performance with independent voters.

...

Quote
The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were conducted Jan. 2-7. In Iowa, the poll measured 2,821 registered voters [+/- 1.Sunglasses, 1,094 potential GOP caucus-goers (+/- 3.0%), 456 likely GOP caucus-goers (+/- 4.6%), 977 potential Democratic caucus-goers (+/- 3.1%) and 422 likely Dem caucus-goers (+/- 4.8%)

In New Hampshire, the poll measured 1,888 registered voters (+/- 2.3%), 887 potential GOP primary voters (+/- 3.3%), 569 likely GOP primary voters (+/- 4.1%), 690 potential Dem primary voters (+/- 3.7%) and 425 likely Dem primary voters (+/- 4.8%).

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/poll-neck-neck-2016-races-iowa-new-hampshire-n493361
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2016, 09:32:06 am »

So much to the electability argument.

Hillary is a walking trainwreck.
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« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2016, 09:39:10 am »

Did they forget to poll women voters in NH?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2016, 09:39:17 am »

Interesting also that PPP and Marist both have Sanders leading Trump by about 20% in NH.

But there's a huge gap between the 2 pollsters with Hillary: PPP has her ahead by 14, Marist only by 1.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2016, 09:40:43 am »

Did they forget to poll women voters in NH?

No, they polled them.

But the fact is: Hillary sucks.
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« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2016, 09:47:15 am »

Did they forget to poll women voters in NH?

No, they polled them.

But the fact is: Hillary sucks.

I believe the IA numbers (they're probably even too generous towards Clinton), but no way that those NH numbers are true. Barbara Mikulski and Johnny Isakson winning the "hottest Senators ever" award is more likely than Rubio winning NH by 12 points.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2016, 09:48:42 am »

If she can't win the low energy Moderate Hero state of New Hampshire against Cruz...
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #7 on: January 10, 2016, 09:48:56 am »

So much to the electability argument.

Hillary is a walking trainwreck.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: January 10, 2016, 09:52:52 am »

Did they forget to poll women voters in NH?

No, they polled them.

But the fact is: Hillary sucks.

I believe the IA numbers (they're probably even too generous towards Clinton), but no way that those NH numbers are true. Barbara Mikulski and Johnny Isakson winning the "hottest Senators ever" award is more likely than Rubio winning NH by 12 points.

Yeah, this looks off - but it only shows Hillary's tremendous weakness among Independents - which NH is full of (50% of GE voters).

Also, we are now having a pattern: Sanders polls much better than Hillary in states where he has a name recognition like Hillary, near 100%.

Hillary would make a winnable race unnecessarily close and turning it into a 2000-like fiasco and trust me, you don't want that to happen again. The US is still too incompetent in handling close elections, even 16 years later. Bernie OTOH would beat the GOP in a landslide ...
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« Reply #9 on: January 10, 2016, 09:53:16 am »

If she can't win the low energy Moderate Hero state of New Hampshire against Cruz...

NH was considered a "lean R" state in January 2012. We know how well that worked out for Romney in the end, don't we?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rc8WA6kpZVU
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #10 on: January 10, 2016, 10:12:20 am »

Did they forget to poll women voters in NH?

No, they polled them.

But the fact is: Hillary sucks.

I believe the IA numbers (they're probably even too generous towards Clinton), but no way that those NH numbers are true. Barbara Mikulski and Johnny Isakson winning the "hottest Senators ever" award is more likely than Rubio winning NH by 12 points.

Yeah, this looks off - but it only shows Hillary's tremendous weakness among Independents - which NH is full of (50% of GE voters).

Also, we are now having a pattern: Sanders polls much better than Hillary in states where he has a name recognition like Hillary, near 100%.

Hillary would make a winnable race unnecessarily close and turning it into a 2000-like fiasco and trust me, you don't want that to happen again. The US is still too incompetent in handling close elections, even 16 years later. Bernie OTOH would beat the GOP in a landslide ...
You're right that Hillarys problem is independents hate her. Also, Bernie Sanders has the outsider appeal of Donald Trump without the racial, religious, or sex based polarization.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: January 10, 2016, 10:23:16 am »

Did they forget to poll women voters in NH?

No, they polled them.

But the fact is: Hillary sucks.

I believe the IA numbers (they're probably even too generous towards Clinton), but no way that those NH numbers are true. Barbara Mikulski and Johnny Isakson winning the "hottest Senators ever" award is more likely than Rubio winning NH by 12 points.

Yeah, this looks off - but it only shows Hillary's tremendous weakness among Independents - which NH is full of (50% of GE voters).

Also, we are now having a pattern: Sanders polls much better than Hillary in states where he has a name recognition like Hillary, near 100%.

Hillary would make a winnable race unnecessarily close and turning it into a 2000-like fiasco and trust me, you don't want that to happen again. The US is still too incompetent in handling close elections, even 16 years later. Bernie OTOH would beat the GOP in a landslide ...
You're right that Hillarys problem is independents hate her. Also, Bernie Sanders has the outsider appeal of Donald Trump without the racial, religious, or sex based polarization.

Besides, Bernie would present himself as a high-energy alternative and man for the working people, especially against Martin Shkreli-like locust capitalist Trump. He would crush him like a bug.

Whereas with Hillary you get a disaster of a candidate, who stands for nothing really ... and with her, Democrats would be heading for the abyss with eyes wide open.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #12 on: January 10, 2016, 10:24:28 am »

Wow, this looks exactly like PPP's NH poll... not.
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« Reply #13 on: January 10, 2016, 10:39:41 am »

Did they forget to poll women voters in NH?

No, they polled them.

But the fact is: Hillary sucks.

I believe the IA numbers (they're probably even too generous towards Clinton), but no way that those NH numbers are true. Barbara Mikulski and Johnny Isakson winning the "hottest Senators ever" award is more likely than Rubio winning NH by 12 points.

Yeah, this looks off - but it only shows Hillary's tremendous weakness among Independents - which NH is full of (50% of GE voters).

Also, we are now having a pattern: Sanders polls much better than Hillary in states where he has a name recognition like Hillary, near 100%.

Hillary would make a winnable race unnecessarily close and turning it into a 2000-like fiasco and trust me, you don't want that to happen again. The US is still too incompetent in handling close elections, even 16 years later. Bernie OTOH would beat the GOP in a landslide ...

This "Independent elastic NH" myth has already been debunked. NH isn't full of Independents. Most of these "Independents" are closet partisans and Democrats.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/01/new-hampshire-independents-myth

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In reality, New Hampshire's undeclared voters break down fairly evenly along party lines—with the actual chunk of truly independent voters turning out to be much smaller. According to a decade's worth of UNH polling data, Smith says roughly 40 percent of the group are in fact Democrats: "They act like Democrats and they vote for Democrats." Another 30 percent are Republicans. The remaining 30 percent, he affirms, are independent voters whose “political attitudes don't consistently line up."

The moment Republicans open their mouth and talk about abortion and foreign policy, their numbers will collapse and NH will be as safe D as usual. All the Sanders supporters will vote for Clinton in the general election because they have no backbone.

The only reason Republicans are fooling themselves into thinking NH is a swing state or a super-duper-mega-ultro-turbo-elastic independent battleground state is so that they don't have to deal with brown people in other swing states. For the gazillionth timeSad NH and its 4 electoral votes are not in play in 2016. If Clinton loses NH, 2016 will make 1984 look like a squeaker. PERIOD.
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henster
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« Reply #14 on: January 10, 2016, 10:48:57 am »

Hillary's personal baggage is causing her to underperform what a Generic D would get in these states, I'm looking at Sanders as to what a Dem should be getting in these states considering the fundamentals.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #15 on: January 10, 2016, 11:11:31 am »

I doubt these polls will hold up against Cruz, but he does perform better in Iowa against Clinton.

Dems must keep focus on Trump, should he be nominee, Dems will do great.
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« Reply #16 on: January 10, 2016, 11:27:02 am »

no fav/unfav numbers for the candidates???
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Devils30
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« Reply #17 on: January 10, 2016, 11:38:29 am »

Cruz has yet to be attacked for his extreme views, Trump's attacks by fellow GOP are nothing like Clinton's to come attacks. That said, Hillary would have real problems against an establishment GOP.
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« Reply #18 on: January 10, 2016, 12:05:27 pm »

Bernie hasn't faced the attacks the other candidates have, so his name recognition means nothing. If he made it to the general, Trump would go all out on him, calling him a communist, not to mention using subtle, (or even blatant) anti-semitic rhetoric. He would be destroyed.
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« Reply #19 on: January 10, 2016, 12:16:02 pm »

Clinton beating Trump by just 1 in New Hampshire? Jesus that's sad if true.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #20 on: January 10, 2016, 12:22:00 pm »

Did they forget to poll women voters in NH?

No, they polled them.

But the fact is: Hillary sucks.

I believe the IA numbers (they're probably even too generous towards Clinton), but no way that those NH numbers are true. Barbara Mikulski and Johnny Isakson winning the "hottest Senators ever" award is more likely than Rubio winning NH by 12 points.

Yeah, this looks off - but it only shows Hillary's tremendous weakness among Independents - which NH is full of (50% of GE voters).

Also, we are now having a pattern: Sanders polls much better than Hillary in states where he has a name recognition like Hillary, near 100%.

Hillary would make a winnable race unnecessarily close and turning it into a 2000-like fiasco and trust me, you don't want that to happen again. The US is still too incompetent in handling close elections, even 16 years later. Bernie OTOH would beat the GOP in a landslide ...

This "Independent elastic NH" myth has already been debunked. NH isn't full of Independents. Most of these "Independents" are closet partisans and Democrats.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/01/new-hampshire-independents-myth

Quote
In reality, New Hampshire's undeclared voters break down fairly evenly along party lines—with the actual chunk of truly independent voters turning out to be much smaller. According to a decade's worth of UNH polling data, Smith says roughly 40 percent of the group are in fact Democrats: "They act like Democrats and they vote for Democrats." Another 30 percent are Republicans. The remaining 30 percent, he affirms, are independent voters whose “political attitudes don't consistently line up."

The moment Republicans open their mouth and talk about abortion and foreign policy, their numbers will collapse and NH will be as safe D as usual. All the Sanders supporters will vote for Clinton in the general election because they have no backbone.

The only reason Republicans are fooling themselves into thinking NH is a swing state or a super-duper-mega-ultro-turbo-elastic independent battleground state is so that they don't have to deal with brown people in other swing states. For the gazillionth timeSad NH and its 4 electoral votes are not in play in 2016. If Clinton loses NH, 2016 will make 1984 look like a squeaker. PERIOD.

So NH is more democratic than everywhere except D.C.? You are beyond delusional.
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« Reply #21 on: January 10, 2016, 12:28:06 pm »

So NH is more democratic than everywhere except D.C.? You are beyond delusional.

The only delusional ones are the Republicans who get fooled everytime by early polls showing the state competitive only to get castrated in the end. Here's a poll from 16 1/2 years ago that shows Bush and Dole leading Gore and Bradley by about 20 points in NH:

In head-to-head match-ups, Bush beats Gore by 20 percentage points -- 55 percent to 35 percent. Dole fares nearly as well, earning 52 percent against the vice president's 36 percent.

Bradley wouldn't do any better. The Texas governor again comes out on top, earning 52 percent against Bradley's 30 percent.

http://edition.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1999/05/05/president.2000/wmur.poll/

Bush won NH by just 1 point in the end.
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« Reply #22 on: January 10, 2016, 01:00:34 pm »

Did they forget to poll women voters in NH?

No, they polled them.

But the fact is: Hillary sucks.

I believe the IA numbers (they're probably even too generous towards Clinton), but no way that those NH numbers are true. Barbara Mikulski and Johnny Isakson winning the "hottest Senators ever" award is more likely than Rubio winning NH by 12 points.

LMAO

IA has been worrying me for some time now. I don't expect Clinton to win the state in the general election, it's a tilt R state in 2016. Those NH numbers are terrible for her, though. Anyway, it's still early...
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« Reply #23 on: January 10, 2016, 01:36:15 pm »

Not surprising that the only people who think Sanders is more electable than Clinton are foreigners who have no idea how Americans think.

Sanders has had literally ZERO negative media coverage. The Republicans are all praising him because they want a geriatric extremist whose campaign is run by hapless amateurs to be their opponent. Despite all this, he's on average doing the same or only slightly better than Clinton.
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« Reply #24 on: January 10, 2016, 02:29:12 pm »

Marist is just warming up. It was shaky at first in 2008 and 2012.
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