IA/NH - NBC/WSJ/Marist: Sanders strongly outperforms Clinton against GOP
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Author Topic: IA/NH - NBC/WSJ/Marist: Sanders strongly outperforms Clinton against GOP  (Read 4595 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: January 10, 2016, 09:30:13 AM »

Sanders outperforms Clinton in general-election matchups

The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls also show that Sanders outperforms Clinton in hypothetical general-election matchups in these two presidential battleground states - something other surveys have found, too.

In Iowa:

Clinton leads Trump by eight points among registered voters (48 percent to 40 percent), but Sanders is ahead of him by 13 (51 percent to 38 percent);

Cruz tops Clinton by four points (47 percent to 43 percent), but Sanders beats him by five (47 percent to 42 percent);

And up Rubio is up by five points over Clinton (47 percent to 42 percent), while he's tied with Sanders (44 percent to 44 percent).

In New Hampshire:

Clinton is ahead of Trump by just one point (45 percent to 44 percent), but Sanders tops him by 19 points (56 percent to 37 percent);

Cruz beats Clinton by four points (48 percent to 44 percent), but Sanders leads him by another 19 points (55 percent to 36 percent);

And Rubio bests Clinton by 12 points (52 percent to 40 percent), while Sanders leads him by nine points (50 percent to 41 percent).

The primary reason why Sanders tests better in these general-election matchups is due to his stronger performance with independent voters.

...

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http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/poll-neck-neck-2016-races-iowa-new-hampshire-n493361
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2016, 09:32:06 AM »

So much to the electability argument.

Hillary is a walking trainwreck.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2016, 09:39:17 AM »

Interesting also that PPP and Marist both have Sanders leading Trump by about 20% in NH.

But there's a huge gap between the 2 pollsters with Hillary: PPP has her ahead by 14, Marist only by 1.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2016, 09:40:43 AM »

Did they forget to poll women voters in NH?

No, they polled them.

But the fact is: Hillary sucks.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2016, 09:48:42 AM »

If she can't win the low energy Moderate Hero state of New Hampshire against Cruz...
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2016, 09:48:56 AM »

So much to the electability argument.

Hillary is a walking trainwreck.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2016, 09:52:52 AM »

Did they forget to poll women voters in NH?

No, they polled them.

But the fact is: Hillary sucks.

I believe the IA numbers (they're probably even too generous towards Clinton), but no way that those NH numbers are true. Barbara Mikulski and Johnny Isakson winning the "hottest Senators ever" award is more likely than Rubio winning NH by 12 points.

Yeah, this looks off - but it only shows Hillary's tremendous weakness among Independents - which NH is full of (50% of GE voters).

Also, we are now having a pattern: Sanders polls much better than Hillary in states where he has a name recognition like Hillary, near 100%.

Hillary would make a winnable race unnecessarily close and turning it into a 2000-like fiasco and trust me, you don't want that to happen again. The US is still too incompetent in handling close elections, even 16 years later. Bernie OTOH would beat the GOP in a landslide ...
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #7 on: January 10, 2016, 10:12:20 AM »

Did they forget to poll women voters in NH?

No, they polled them.

But the fact is: Hillary sucks.

I believe the IA numbers (they're probably even too generous towards Clinton), but no way that those NH numbers are true. Barbara Mikulski and Johnny Isakson winning the "hottest Senators ever" award is more likely than Rubio winning NH by 12 points.

Yeah, this looks off - but it only shows Hillary's tremendous weakness among Independents - which NH is full of (50% of GE voters).

Also, we are now having a pattern: Sanders polls much better than Hillary in states where he has a name recognition like Hillary, near 100%.

Hillary would make a winnable race unnecessarily close and turning it into a 2000-like fiasco and trust me, you don't want that to happen again. The US is still too incompetent in handling close elections, even 16 years later. Bernie OTOH would beat the GOP in a landslide ...
You're right that Hillarys problem is independents hate her. Also, Bernie Sanders has the outsider appeal of Donald Trump without the racial, religious, or sex based polarization.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: January 10, 2016, 10:23:16 AM »

Did they forget to poll women voters in NH?

No, they polled them.

But the fact is: Hillary sucks.

I believe the IA numbers (they're probably even too generous towards Clinton), but no way that those NH numbers are true. Barbara Mikulski and Johnny Isakson winning the "hottest Senators ever" award is more likely than Rubio winning NH by 12 points.

Yeah, this looks off - but it only shows Hillary's tremendous weakness among Independents - which NH is full of (50% of GE voters).

Also, we are now having a pattern: Sanders polls much better than Hillary in states where he has a name recognition like Hillary, near 100%.

Hillary would make a winnable race unnecessarily close and turning it into a 2000-like fiasco and trust me, you don't want that to happen again. The US is still too incompetent in handling close elections, even 16 years later. Bernie OTOH would beat the GOP in a landslide ...
You're right that Hillarys problem is independents hate her. Also, Bernie Sanders has the outsider appeal of Donald Trump without the racial, religious, or sex based polarization.

Besides, Bernie would present himself as a high-energy alternative and man for the working people, especially against Martin Shkreli-like locust capitalist Trump. He would crush him like a bug.

Whereas with Hillary you get a disaster of a candidate, who stands for nothing really ... and with her, Democrats would be heading for the abyss with eyes wide open.
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Skye
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« Reply #9 on: January 10, 2016, 10:24:28 AM »

Wow, this looks exactly like PPP's NH poll... not.
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henster
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« Reply #10 on: January 10, 2016, 10:48:57 AM »

Hillary's personal baggage is causing her to underperform what a Generic D would get in these states, I'm looking at Sanders as to what a Dem should be getting in these states considering the fundamentals.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: January 10, 2016, 11:11:31 AM »

I doubt these polls will hold up against Cruz, but he does perform better in Iowa against Clinton.

Dems must keep focus on Trump, should he be nominee, Dems will do great.
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Former Democrat
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« Reply #12 on: January 10, 2016, 11:27:02 AM »

no fav/unfav numbers for the candidates???
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Devils30
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« Reply #13 on: January 10, 2016, 11:38:29 AM »

Cruz has yet to be attacked for his extreme views, Trump's attacks by fellow GOP are nothing like Clinton's to come attacks. That said, Hillary would have real problems against an establishment GOP.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #14 on: January 10, 2016, 12:05:27 PM »

Bernie hasn't faced the attacks the other candidates have, so his name recognition means nothing. If he made it to the general, Trump would go all out on him, calling him a communist, not to mention using subtle, (or even blatant) anti-semitic rhetoric. He would be destroyed.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #15 on: January 10, 2016, 12:16:02 PM »

Clinton beating Trump by just 1 in New Hampshire? Jesus that's sad if true.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: January 10, 2016, 12:22:00 PM »

Did they forget to poll women voters in NH?

No, they polled them.

But the fact is: Hillary sucks.

I believe the IA numbers (they're probably even too generous towards Clinton), but no way that those NH numbers are true. Barbara Mikulski and Johnny Isakson winning the "hottest Senators ever" award is more likely than Rubio winning NH by 12 points.

Yeah, this looks off - but it only shows Hillary's tremendous weakness among Independents - which NH is full of (50% of GE voters).

Also, we are now having a pattern: Sanders polls much better than Hillary in states where he has a name recognition like Hillary, near 100%.

Hillary would make a winnable race unnecessarily close and turning it into a 2000-like fiasco and trust me, you don't want that to happen again. The US is still too incompetent in handling close elections, even 16 years later. Bernie OTOH would beat the GOP in a landslide ...

This "Independent elastic NH" myth has already been debunked. NH isn't full of Independents. Most of these "Independents" are closet partisans and Democrats.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/01/new-hampshire-independents-myth

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The moment Republicans open their mouth and talk about abortion and foreign policy, their numbers will collapse and NH will be as safe D as usual. All the Sanders supporters will vote for Clinton in the general election because they have no backbone.

The only reason Republicans are fooling themselves into thinking NH is a swing state or a super-duper-mega-ultro-turbo-elastic independent battleground state is so that they don't have to deal with brown people in other swing states. For the gazillionth timeSad NH and its 4 electoral votes are not in play in 2016. If Clinton loses NH, 2016 will make 1984 look like a squeaker. PERIOD.

So NH is more democratic than everywhere except D.C.? You are beyond delusional.
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madelka
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« Reply #17 on: January 10, 2016, 01:00:34 PM »

Did they forget to poll women voters in NH?

No, they polled them.

But the fact is: Hillary sucks.

I believe the IA numbers (they're probably even too generous towards Clinton), but no way that those NH numbers are true. Barbara Mikulski and Johnny Isakson winning the "hottest Senators ever" award is more likely than Rubio winning NH by 12 points.

LMAO

IA has been worrying me for some time now. I don't expect Clinton to win the state in the general election, it's a tilt R state in 2016. Those NH numbers are terrible for her, though. Anyway, it's still early...
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #18 on: January 10, 2016, 01:36:15 PM »

Not surprising that the only people who think Sanders is more electable than Clinton are foreigners who have no idea how Americans think.

Sanders has had literally ZERO negative media coverage. The Republicans are all praising him because they want a geriatric extremist whose campaign is run by hapless amateurs to be their opponent. Despite all this, he's on average doing the same or only slightly better than Clinton.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: January 10, 2016, 02:29:12 PM »

Marist is just warming up. It was shaky at first in 2008 and 2012.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #20 on: January 10, 2016, 02:37:05 PM »

Sanders outperforming Clinton in matchups is no different than Carson outperforming Bush in matchups. It wouldn't go down that way.
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Holmes
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« Reply #21 on: January 10, 2016, 06:29:22 PM »

Did they poll enough Blaxicasians!?

Not surprising that the only people who think Sanders is more electable than Clinton are foreigners who have no idea how Americans think.

Sanders has had literally ZERO negative media coverage. The Republicans are all praising him because they want a geriatric extremist whose campaign is run by hapless amateurs to be their opponent. Despite all this, he's on average doing the same or only slightly better than Clinton.

Maybe "trillions of dollars in spending" and "raising taxes on the middle class" are winning arguments in Soviet Austria?
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NeverAgain
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« Reply #22 on: January 10, 2016, 09:19:07 PM »

Did they poll enough Blaxicasians!?

Not surprising that the only people who think Sanders is more electable than Clinton are foreigners who have no idea how Americans think.

Sanders has had literally ZERO negative media coverage. The Republicans are all praising him because they want a geriatric extremist whose campaign is run by hapless amateurs to be their opponent. Despite all this, he's on average doing the same or only slightly better than Clinton.

Maybe "trillions of dollars in spending" and "raising taxes on the middle class" are winning arguments in Soviet Austria?
What.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #23 on: January 10, 2016, 10:32:38 PM »

Sanders has had literally ZERO negative media coverage.

Sorry but that just isn't true and you know it. He's received plenty of negative coverage in recent weeks. Hell, every time there's a debate he gets slammed and Hillary gets praised. He got plenty of negative coverage over the data breach thing too initially but his campaign managed to spin that story around on the DNC rather brilliantly in the end (and nobody is more surprised about that than me).

And while paying a lot of attention to general election polls this far out is silly, Sanders performing like 20 points better or whatever in the two swing states that are paying the most attention to the race so far is definitely kind of interesting if nothing else.

I know you're sort of playing a role here though so do you, my friend...
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #24 on: January 10, 2016, 11:10:11 PM »

He's definitely not "slammed" every time there's a debate. The consensus has been that he's done fairly well at them, as far as I can tell. Of all the candidates running for president, he hasn't had anywhere near the amount of vetting or negative press. I honestly can't think of any major negative stories about it, other than the data breach. If, god forbid, he becomes the nominee, all these pro-Bernie Republicans and independents will not stick with him once they hear that he's going to raise their taxes and grow the budget by 18 trillion dollars.
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