Will Georgia have more population than Ohio by 2030?

[ElectionsGuy]

Georgia:

1990: 6,478,216
2000: 8,186,453
2010: 9,687,653
2014: 10,097,343

Ohio:

1990: 10,847,115
2000: 11,353,140
2010: 11,536,504
2014: 11,594,163

Projected population using 2010-2014 growth:

Georgia 2030: 11,736,095
Ohio 2030: 11,824,803

[Ban my account ffs!]

I would say so.  Between now and 2030 the proportion of those elderly and dying will increase more in Ohio than in Georgia.  By 2030 it could be that Georgia is still growing modestly while Ohio is shrinking.

Of course things can change.  There might be a rush back to the rust belt for some reason.

[Asian Nazi]

Of course things can change.  There might be a rush back to the rust belt for some reason.

Or, more likely, the Sunbelt boom ends.  Isn't Georgia's growth in particular is driven largely by the explosion of the Atlanta metro area?  And a large portion of that growth is coming from a particular subsection of the US population (African Americans)?  And, IIRC, the Atlanta area is already experiencing water issues.  I'm not sure how much more it can keep growing, and if rural Georgia keeps declining like it has been...

On the other hand, I could very easily see Georgia passing Ohio within a couple decades, but there are so many variables at play here.

[Sol]

Of course things can change.  There might be a rush back to the rust belt for some reason.

Or, more likely, the Sunbelt boom ends.  Isn't Georgia's growth in particular is driven largely by the explosion of the Atlanta metro area?  And a large portion of that growth is coming from a particular subsection of the US population (African Americans)?  And, IIRC, the Atlanta area is already experiencing water issues.  I'm not sure how much more it can keep growing, and if rural Georgia keeps declining like it has been...

On the other hand, I could very easily see Georgia passing Ohio within a couple decades, but there are so many variables at play here.

The water issues of Atlanta are wildly overstated, largely due to the fact that the region was experiencing a record-breaking drought in the early oughts.

[Seneca]

I expect it will, helped by an influx of climate refugees from Florida and the Gulf.

[Adam Griffin]

Of course things can change.  There might be a rush back to the rust belt for some reason.

Or, more likely, the Sunbelt boom ends.  Isn't Georgia's growth in particular is driven largely by the explosion of the Atlanta metro area?  And a large portion of that growth is coming from a particular subsection of the US population (African Americans)?  And, IIRC, the Atlanta area is already experiencing water issues.  I'm not sure how much more it can keep growing, and if rural Georgia keeps declining like it has been...

On the other hand, I could very easily see Georgia passing Ohio within a couple decades, but there are so many variables at play here.

The first issue - with respect to the boom in the Sunbelt - has largely already come to pass. Sure, people are still moving to Georgia, but that growth ground to a screeching halt in relative terms once the Great Recession began.

With regard to African-American growth specifically, said drop-off has been even larger. Year-to-year Census estimates (shown here; lightest-colored set of numbers/lines) are not exactly the most accurate, but Georgia's black share of the population was growing by one percentage point every three years throughout the 00s (from 28.7% in 2000 to 31.5% in 2010). From 2010-2013, that number remained flat (31.5% in 2010; 31.4% in 2013).

As the recent figures have shown, Georgia grew by 1.5 million people in the 00s; if we adjust the numbers and project for this decade, Georgia will only grow by a little more than a million people in the 10s.

Now, this is a slow-down, for sure, but the state will continue to grow faster than the national average (whereas Ohio will not). The major dynamic in play here is that Georgia's population - as was already mentioned - is skewing a lot younger today than Ohio's population. Ohio and Georgia's fertility rates are virtually identical as of right now - as are the mortality rates - but the movement of people into and out of these states will be what determines how each shifts in the coming decades. I also tend to think that Ohio's birth rates will begin to slow and their mortality rates will begin to increase in the coming years, further widening that discrepancy.

[Craziaskowboi]

Georgia will probably be neck-and-neck with Ohio by 2030. With that said, Georgia is on pace for its slowest decade of growth since the 1950s.

[hopper]

Of course things can change.  There might be a rush back to the rust belt for some reason.

Or, more likely, the Sunbelt boom ends.  Isn't Georgia's growth in particular is driven largely by the explosion of the Atlanta metro area?  And a large portion of that growth is coming from a particular subsection of the US population (African Americans)?  And, IIRC, the Atlanta area is already experiencing water issues.  I'm not sure how much more it can keep growing, and if rural Georgia keeps declining like it has been...

On the other hand, I could very easily see Georgia passing Ohio within a couple decades, but there are so many variables at play here.

With regard to African-American growth specifically, said drop-off has been even larger. Year-to-year Census estimates (shown here; lightest-colored set of numbers/lines) are not exactly the most accurate, but Georgia's black share of the population was growing by one percentage point every three years throughout the 00s (from 28.7% in 2000 to 31.5% in 2010). From 2010-2013, that number remained flat (31.5% in 2010; 31.4% in 2013).

Well "US Census Quickfacts" has that in 2010 Georgia had a 30.5% Black Population and in 2014 had a 31.5% Black Population.

[hopper]

Georgia will probably be neck-and-neck with Ohio by 2030. With that said, Georgia is on pace for its slowest decade of growth since the 1950s.

Yes Georgia's population is on track to grow by 10.8% from 2010-2020. In the 50's(1950-1960) the growth was 10.3%. Numbers wise the population growth is close to where it was in the 80's(+1 million people) for the decade of the 2010's. In the 90's the population growth was 1.7 million people and in the 2000's the population growth was 1.5 million people.

[hopper]

Of course things can change.  There might be a rush back to the rust belt for some reason.

Or, more likely, the Sunbelt boom ends.  Isn't Georgia's growth in particular is driven largely by the explosion of the Atlanta metro area?  And a large portion of that growth is coming from a particular subsection of the US population (African Americans)?  And, IIRC, the Atlanta area is already experiencing water issues.  I'm not sure how much more it can keep growing, and if rural Georgia keeps declining like it has been...

On the other hand, I could very easily see Georgia passing Ohio within a couple decades, but there are so many variables at play here.

The water issues of Atlanta are wildly overstated, largely due to the fact that the region was experiencing a record-breaking drought in the early oughts.

I think Congressmen Tom Price(R-GA) says he would like to see money spent on upgrading the water systems in Atlanta because they are 100 years old.

[Padfoot]

If the Republicans in the statehouse ever wake-up and smell the breeze we might get at least a small boost out of tapping into the state's wind energy potential, both in the Northwest and off-shore on Lake Erie.  It probably still wouldn't be enough to completely stem the tide of people fleeing from the Northern metros but it would be something positive.

[Ban my account ffs!]

If the Republicans in the statehouse ever wake-up and smell the breeze we might get at least a small boost out of tapping into the state's wind energy potential, both in the Northwest and off-shore on Lake Erie.  It probably still wouldn't be enough to completely stem the tide of people fleeing from the Northern metros but it would be something positive.

Wind power won't provide any substantial population growth.  It might keep a handful of people from leaving.  But you're talking about hundreds of jobs... not the hundreds of thousands Ohio would need to keep ahead of Georgia.