ARG-NH: Sanders takes the lead

[Tender Branson]

47% Sanders (+4)
44% Hillary (-2)
  3% O'Malley (nc)

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http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/dem/nhdem.html

[Tender Branson]

RIP, Bernie.

[The Other Castro]

RIP, Bernie.

?

[Tender Branson]

RIP, Bernie.

?

Don't you know ARGHHH ?

Every candidate they show ahead is ending the total opposite way: in the dumpster.

Or:

How ARG conducts their polling:

First, numbers are picked randomly out of a hat


Then, through a contract with the local school district, third grade students are told to take the numbers and use them as variables in the "The Supersecret Highly Intelligent Turnout formula", hereafter known as The S.H.I.T. formula


It doesn't matter if they do the math correctly - that's what the margin of error is for

ARG then randomly calls a number determined by The S.H.I.T. formula. Racial turnout is based upon what color pen the third-graders used



ARG then subtracts 7 from one of the candidates totals, 'cause 7 is their lucky number

NOTE: ARG is currently considering switching to a new polling methodology involving bloodhounds, a bundle of bananas, and a bingo parlor off I-67

[Eraserhead]

Eek, so much for Bernie's streak of only good polls...

[Wells]

Eek, so much for Bernie's streak of only good polls...

I know, he was doing so well. Clinton's gonna win NH in a landslide now.

[Mr. Morden]

No, you guys don't quite understand how ARG works.  It's not that whoever they show leading ends up losing.  It's that they're always on the wrong side of the polling consensus.  For example, in the 2008 Democratic primary race in South Carolina, the average of polls going into election day had Obama ahead of Clinton by about 10 points.  ARG was an outlier, showing Obama ahead by only 3 points.  Obama ended up winning by almost 30 points.  So the thing was that, relative to the polling consensus, ARG had Obama underperforming (though still narrowly ahead), so he ended up overperforming instead, meaning that they underestimated the winning candidate's margin of victory by about 25 points.

So you need to measure the Sanders number here against whatever the current polling consensus is.  RCP has him ahead in New Hampshire by 6 points, when you average all the polls.  So on the basis of the logic explained above, he should now win in a blowout.  However, ARG will probably have another poll out before primary day, so this could easily change.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

It's ARG the crappy pollster but it's a 6 point swing to Bernie from their last poll.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's ARG the crappy pollster but it's a 6 point swing to Bernie from their last poll.

It depends on how self consistent they are. Gravis is definitely not self consistent enough for a 6 point swing to mean anything.

[komodozer]

Hi.  First time poster.  This is my first post.   

I'm thinking the hit on Hillary's numbers is due to Trump bringing up Bill Clinton's sex life, and Dem concern that she won't be able to effectively neutralize such personal attacks in a general election--which will throw her off message--and subsequently damage her campaign.

Once the media stops focusing on Bill's sex life, I predict her numbers will go back up once Democrats' concerns are alleviated for the time being. 

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

I thought he'd be up by a bit more than this even. 

[RJEvans]

Hi.  First time poster.  This is my first post.   

I'm thinking the hit on Hillary's numbers is due to Trump bringing up Bill Clinton's sex life, and Dem concern that she won't be able to effectively neutralize such personal attacks in a general election--which will throw her off message--and subsequently damage her campaign.

Once the media stops focusing on Bill's sex life, I predict her numbers will go back up once Democrats' concerns are alleviated for the time being. 

I was thinking the same thing. Her precipitous fall occurred right after those attacks. I think Democrats saw a preview of what's to come, saw Clinton had no real response to the attack and realized they did not want to fight the battles of the 90's. Particularly women, young women, who are not as familiar with Bill's transgressions and Hillary's situation during those transgressions, I think it hit a cord with a lot of voters. Morning Joe said it right--a lot of people were thinking the exact same thing about the Clintons in private, Trump just decided to talk about it in public. I will be honest, I didn't think Hillary was the champion in that exchange. I think it was very telling that she stopped with her line of attack on Trump when Trump brought up the past.