Why Were New Mexico and Nevada Oddly Attracted to Obama?

[buritobr]

Not only Colorado, but also New Mexico and Nevada had huge swing from 2004 to 2008. Why?

[user12345]

Because Bush was unpopular, demographics had changed from 2004, and Obama excited younger voters and minorities to vote.

[Hydera]

Hispanics, also the collapsing housing bubble(The southwest+Florida states gained economically because of the bubble and soon became economically crushed much more than the rest of the country) made a lot of people who voted for Bush in 2004 to flip.

[DS0816]

Not only Colorado, but also New Mexico and Nevada had huge swing from 2004 to 2008. Why?

Numbers.

Margins.

A near-10 percentage points national swing, in a Democratic pickup year, following George W. Bush's 2.46 percentage-points U.S. Popular Vote from 2004; Bush's Republican pickup of bellwether state New Mexico at 0.79 percentage points; the fact that bellwether Nevada's 2.59 percentage points carriage was the state which came closest to his national 2.46 points was a spread of only 0.13 percentage points.

There was nothing odd about New Mexico and Nevada, which voted the same since N.M. first participated in 1912 (minus 2000), both  flipping and carrying for Democratic presidential pickup winner Barack Obama in 2008.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Hispanics and Bush's job approval.  This time around, Obama won't be on the ballot, so Hispanics (and blacks, for that matter) probably won't turn out nearly as much as they did in 2008 and 2012.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2004, was the last time NM will vote GOP, and Dubya will be the last pro amnesty GOP prez.  Growth of Vegas, just like California, gives Dems the edge in these Latino states, where 2nd & 3rd generation Latinos are voting for Dems.

[Virginiá]

Hispanics and Bush's job approval.  This time around, Obama won't be on the ballot, so Hispanics (and blacks, for that matter) probably won't turn out nearly as much as they did in 2008 and 2012.

I can see African American turnout going down a point or so, but Hispanic turnout already dropped from 2008-2012, and it's unlikely to go any lower given current trends. Even if it didn't rise, the exploding Hispanic population will still make it stronger than 2012. Also, given the dynamics of the presidential race right now, I'd say this year will see a very generous bump in Hispanic turnout. All voter groups respond heavily to certain issues, and what has been at play so far is quite possibly the most effective turnout mechanism I've ever seen for Hispanics.

[TDAS04]

Hillary would have also carried them handily.  She's popular with Hispanics, and those states were going to trend Democratic anyway.

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

The Hispanic community is trending more to the left which has caused those states to trend left also.  I'm not sure if New Mexico will be back as a battleground state.  It's basically light blue now.  Nevada should be a center-left battleground state still.  However, it was center-right up until Obama.

[Hydera]

The Hispanic community is trending more to the left which has caused those states to trend left also.  I'm not sure if New Mexico will be back as a battleground state.  It's basically light blue now.  Nevada should be a center-left battleground state still.  However, it was center-right up until Obama.

Bush and Bill clinton carried Nevada with small margins. I think it would be a questionable but plausible win in the state with Hillary considering the demographics. say 3-6 points margin.

But theres a going to be a "regression to the mean" in the vegas suburbs that had a backlash against Bush especially with the housing bubble collapse. And help it swing a little to GOP but countered with the hispanic demographic.

Mainly because without Obama and the events that propelled him in 2008 and much less in 2012 a lot of dems wont turnout, plus suburban voters going back to the GOP.

[HillOfANight]

Hispanics and Bush's job approval.  This time around, Obama won't be on the ballot, so Hispanics (and blacks, for that matter) probably won't turn out nearly as much as they did in 2008 and 2012.

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2008/03/07/hispanics-key-to-clinton-victories-in-nations-two-biggest-states/

Obama lost the Latino vote to Hillary by nearly 2:1.

[Ebsy]

If you think Obama performed well with Latino voters, wait until you see Clinton's numbers this fall.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

The Hispanic community is trending more to the left which has caused those states to trend left also.  I'm not sure if New Mexico will be back as a battleground state.  It's basically light blue now.  Nevada should be a center-left battleground state still.  However, it was center-right up until Obama.

Nevada has a lot of Mormons who can still swing it in the GOP's favor.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

The Hispanic community is trending more to the left which has caused those states to trend left also.  I'm not sure if New Mexico will be back as a battleground state.  It's basically light blue now.  Nevada should be a center-left battleground state still.  However, it was center-right up until Obama.

Nevada has a lot of Mormons who can still swing it in the GOP's favor.

They already voted 85% Romney in 2012.

[Young Conservative]

African American turnout in Nevada and millennial appeal in Colorado. The reason for New Mexico is a unknown to me at the moment

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

If you think Obama performed well with Latino voters, wait until you see Clinton's numbers this fall.

I'm not sure she'll be the nominee. If that's the case she'll have the same numbers as you and me.

[Virginiá]

African American turnout in Nevada and millennial appeal in Colorado. The reason for New Mexico is a unknown to me at the moment

That's only part of it. Colorado is only 69% -/+ (2014 census estimate), with 21%+ Hispanic population and growing, who overwhelmingly supported Obama in 2012 - I think it was something like 80%, and they will likely pass that support more or less to the next Democrat.

Given Colorado instituted vote-by-mail with election day registration in 2013, minority/youth turnout, and turnout in general, will likely be better in the state and that will undeniably benefit Democrats into the future.