The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Assuming Trump gets only 6 delegates out of Wisconsin, what percentage of the remaining delegates does he need to win from here on out to reach a majority?  Around 60%?

Assuming he wins 6 in WI and gets swept in the rest of CO and WY, he'd need to win 63% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to clinch on pledged delegates alone.

Tough, but doable; would require blowout wins in IN, CA, and NY, or a shock win in MT.

Of course, Trump is going to win some unpledged delegates.  Based on our most recent information, I'm going to project he wins at least 20 unpledged delegates out of Pennsylvania.  Combined with the rest of my projections, that puts him at 1205.  If he can convince a fair chunk of the remainder of the PA delegation, as well as a few insular delegates, he may just be able to eke out a win on the first ballot.

Pennsylvania, Indiana, and California are the keys.

Trump will not win Indiana.  He may have a shot in IN-2, IN-3, or IN-4, if delegates are apportioned by CD.  IN-07 is Kasich Kountry if he's still in the race, and the rest belongs to Cruz.

IN-3 is Stutzman territory thus almost safe Cruz. I'm in IN-4 and it's almost as evangelical as 3 thus also Cruz (Cruz's dad is coming to Kokomo Thursday). Kasich will be shut out and Trump will at best get IN-1.

Fort Wayne, Lafayette, and the crumbling RV industry seem like reasonable places for Trump to get support.  I just moved to Indy from Lafayette, and it seems like a Trump-friendly place.

I also spend a lot of time in Valparaiso, but the Region is difficult to read.

In any event, Indiana is not going to be kind to The Donald.

[Erc]

Preliminary Wisconsin results suggest a 36-6 Cruz victory here.

Cruz does what he needed to do and then a bit more, especially given his wins around Madison and Green Bay.  The north and west of the state still elude him however, and prevent the complete shutout.

Trump loses an opportunity for an upset here, but honestly his delegate math isn't much worse off than it was previously, since we all expected a Cruz victory here.

This gives Cruz his 8th Rule 40 state (including my projection in WY), so now both Trump and Cruz will appear and have their delegates tallied on the first ballot at Cleveland.

It seems highly, highly unlikely that any other candidate is going to qualify under Rule 40; I'll discuss the resulting consequences for Kasich (not as many as you'd think) again in a future post.

[Ebsy]

Sanders got super unlucky with delegate splits. He's splitting 3-3 in WI-1, WI-6, WI-7, and WI-8.

[Gass3268]

Sanders got super unlucky with delegate splits. He's splitting 3-3 in WI-1, WI-6, WI-7, and WI-8.

I would be in favor in the next cycle that every CD is attached an odd number of delegates. Winning a CD should matter.

[IceSpear]

Allocating delegates by CD is an idiotic idea to begin with considering how badly we get screwed by GOP gerrymanders. No need to validate them through our primary process.

[Gass3268]

Allocating delegates by CD is an idiotic idea to begin with considering how badly we get screwed by GOP gerrymanders. No need to validate them through our primary process.

Delegate by county or maybe districts drawn by the DNC that are appropriated by Democratic vote strength? I still think you need to have some sort of representation by area in a state.

[Erc]

Sanders got super unlucky with delegate splits. He's splitting 3-3 in WI-1, WI-6, WI-7, and WI-8.

Expect this to be a common refrain from here on out in any states Sanders wins by a healthy margin.  There are a good 100+ CDs with 6 delegates in the remaining states.

The Democratic party could just allocate all delegates proportionally by the statewide vote, but select them on a jurisdictional level; many Republican states use such a system.

[Erc]

On the Democratic side in Wisconsin, the breakdown appears to be 48 - 38 in favor of Sanders.

This is precisely the margin Sanders needs in order to have a shot of catching up to Clinton in pledged delegates...the problem is that he now needs to replicate it in all the remaining states, including New York and Puerto Rico.

If Sanders is only hitting his average target in one of the best primary states left for him, it's not looking good for his hopes of winning the nomination without dirty tricks or a preposterous superdelegate super-miracle.

For comparison, his equivalent target in New York is a 140-116 victory.  Good luck with that.

[Erc]

New York (D): April 19

Overview
291 Delegates (6.10% of total)
Closed Primary
163 District
54 At-Large
30 PLEO At-Large
44 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 54 and 30 delegates are apportioned based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are apportioned based on the results in each CD: 5 in CDs 11,19,22,23; 6 in CDs 1,2,4,5,6,8,9,10,12,13,15,16,17,18,21,24,25,27; 7 in CDs 3,7,14,20,26.

Superdelegates

Clinton (39): Bill Clinton, Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Sen. Chuck Schumer, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, Reps. Steve Israel, Kathleen Rice, Gregory Meeks, Grace Meng, Nydia Velázquez, Hakeem Jeffries, Yvette Clarke, Jerrold Nadler, Carolyn Maloney, Charlie Rangel, Joseph Crowley, José Serrano, Eliot Engel, Nita Lowey, Sean Maloney, Paul Tonko, Louise Slaughter, and Brian Higgins, Jay Jacobs, Sarah Kovner, Barbarlee Diamonstein Spielvogel, Herman Farrell, Stephanie Miner, Maria Cuomo Cole, Vice Chair Sheila Comar, Jennifer Cunningham, Emily Giske, Dennis Riera, Gerry Sweeney, Robert Zimmerman, Randi Weingarten, Ralph Dawson, Stuart Appelbaum, Hector Figueroa, Laphonza Butler

Uncommitted (5): Ex-Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell, Vivian Cook, Democratic National Convention CEO Leah Daughtry, Vacant (was Sheldon Silver), Vacant Chair (was David Paterson)

Useful Links
The Green Papers: NY
NY Delegate Selection Plan

[Ebsy]

On the Democratic side in Wisconsin, the breakdown appears to be 48 - 38 in favor of Sanders.

This is precisely the margin Sanders needs in order to have a shot of catching up to Clinton in pledged delegates...the problem is that he now needs to replicate it in all the remaining states, including New York and Puerto Rico.

If Sanders is only hitting his average target in one of the best primary states left for him, it's not looking good for his hopes of winning the nomination without dirty tricks or a preposterous superdelegate super-miracle.

For comparison, his equivalent target in New York is a 140-116 victory.  Good luck with that.

Actually, considering where he has underperformed, Sanders needed 2 more delegates out of Wisconsin. Clinton's CD game in Wisconsin was as good as some of Obama's delegate minimizing strategies in 2008.

[Erc]

Per request, posted my current projections for the remaining states on the tumblr.

Reposting them here.  Comments and critiques are very welcome.

Colorado: 28 Cruz - 3 Uncommitted
Results out of Colorado so far suggest a Cruz sweep, though a couple extra Uncommitted (beyond the 3 RNC members) is possible.

Wyoming: 14 Cruz - 3 Uncommitted
A Cruz sweep seems all but certain here, given the results in the County Conventions.  In fact, I’m so sure that I’ve already incorporated this projection into my current totals, though an extra uncommitted or two is always possible.

New York: Trump 84  - Cruz 4 - Kasich 7
Trump should break 50% statewide and in most CDs.  A fair amount of uncertainty here, as so much depends on the few registered Republicans in New York City.

Connecticut: Trump 18 - Cruz 3 - Kasich 7
Trump has a solid win, but not a sweep.  One of Kasich’s better targets of the remaining states.

Delaware: Trump 16
Unclear, but Trump seems favored to win this WTA state.

Maryland: Trump 29 - Cruz 3 - Kasich 6
Another unclear one, but Trump should benefit from a divided field. Cruz maybe picks up the panhandle CD, while Kasich takes a couple of DC metro CDs.

Pennsylvania: Trump 37 - Cruz 7 - Kasich 7 - Uncommitted 20
Only 17 pledged delegates technically at stake here, but a lot of the unpledged delegates have agreed to support the vote winner in their CD.  Trump seems likely to prevail at the moment over a divided field.

Rhode Island: Trump 10 - Cruz 3 - Kasich 6
Trump dominates, but proportionality keeps his delegate margins down.

Indiana: Trump 9 - Cruz 48
Cruz victory, though not a sweep.  If Trump can pull off the upset here, he likely clinches the nomination.

Nebraska: Cruz 36
Cruz wins.

West Virginia: Trump 34
There’s a possibility Trump doesn’t sweep here due to loophole primary issues, but it shouldn’t make a difference of more than one or two delegates.

Oregon: Trump 11 - Cruz 12 - Kasich 5
Proportional, with Cruz favored.

Washington: Trump 20 - Cruz 17 - Kasich 7
Proportional; unclear, but giving the slight edge to Trump.

California: Trump 121 - Cruz 45 - Kasich 6
The big Kahuna.  This can make or break the nomination.  This figure is for a sizeable (but not landslide) Trump victory, with Trump dominance in heavily Democratic districts.

Montana: Cruz 27
A Trump upset here would make a huge difference.

New Jersey: Trump 51
(Insert YUGE pun of choice)

New Mexico: Trump 10 - Cruz 10 - Kasich 4
Proportional.

South Dakota: Cruz 29
Seems like Cruz country.

Totals (including all other states):
Trump 1208
Cruz 813
Kasich 200
Other 141
Uncommitted 110

If those are the actual results, it gets hard to stop Trump on the first ballot.  He’d only need 29 more delegates, and the remaining Pennsylvania and insular unbound delegates should be enough to almost get him there.  Should be a really interesting convention!

[Erc]

Kasich's Prospects

Obviously, reaching 1237 on the first ballot is impossible for him, as, at this point, is even qualifying under Rule 40.

Continuing his campaign actively does net him more delegates (perhaps helping to deprive Trump of some), lets him continue any delegate selection efforts in the states that have already voted (though there is no indication that such efforts exist), and keeps him around as a potentially viable candidate after the first ballot.

In the meantime, though, what are his prospects?  Does his staying in the race help or hurt Trump?  Let's go through this state by state.

Colorado & Wyoming

He's a non-factor here.  He had zero delegate candidates in Wyoming on the County level, and does not have a full slate of delegates in Colorado.

New York

The game here is to keep Trump under 50% statewide and in as many CDs as possible.  Given that, Kasich staying in can only help, especially since he's a better fit for much of the state than Cruz.  It's possible a divided field could help Trump win a CD or two in odd places, but it's worth the risk.

Connecticut

At-Large is proportional, but CDs are winner take all.  Kasich is a much better fit than Cruz here (and actually has some small shot at winning the state); if anything, it's Cruz who should back down here.

Delaware

Hard to tell if either of the not Trumps have a chance here, to be honest.  Kasich not competing here likely wouldn't make a difference.

Maryland

Divided field helps Trump here, but I don't think Trump would lose the 1v1 fight here vs Cruz.  This is one of the friendlier states for Kasich in the remaining schedule, and he may be able to pick up a CD or two.

Pennsylvania

This one's a mess.  Polling is divided as to who the leading non-Trump candidate would be here, which means Trump likely wins the state.  I think Kasich has to make the play here, though, especially as I don't think Trump would lose to Cruz here.

Rhode Island

Proportional; no reason to stay out.

--May--

Indiana

Very naively a target for Kasich, but he should stay out and make sure Cruz beats Trump to a pulp.

West Virginia

No hope anyway.

Oregon & Washington

Proportional, so might as well make a play.

--June--

California

He could target a few selected CDs in the Bay Area, but should otherwise steer clear.

Montana & South Dakota

Stay away and let Cruz win these.  Seriously.

New Mexico

Proportional, so no harm in making a play here.

New Jersey

Abandon all hope.

TL;DR: Kasich should seriously campaign in all of the remaining April primaries.  After that, camp out in Oregon, Washington, New Mexico, and maybe the Bay Area and make no serious effort anywhere else, barring a major shift in the race.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I feel like a lot of the PA delegates might say right now that they will vote for the state's winner to get elected, but they wouldn't really do that.  Also, I think you're WAY too optimistic for Trump in California.  I think Kasich is falling more than you account for as well.  I just projected it on 538 and got 1122 for Trump.

[Erc]

I feel like a lot of the PA delegates might say right now that they will vote for the state's winner to get elected, but they wouldn't really do that.  Also, I think you're WAY too optimistic for Trump in California.  I think Kasich is falling more than you account for as well.  I just projected it on 538 and got 1122 for Trump.

Entirely possible on all counts.  PA and CA are the two major sources of uncertainty here.

We'll see what happens later this month!

In Pennsylvania, I see no real reason not to take them at their word; it would be quite something if Cruz were to essentially "steal" a state Trump won.  Not that that will necessarily stop anyone (Cruz will win Louisiana on delegates, after all), but going back on their word rather than just rigging the selection process a bit is a big step.

As for California, Trump's prospects might diminish if Kasich does indeed tank.  It should also be noted that Trump might still win the majority of delegates in CA even if he loses the state, if he dominates among the disproportionately-represented Democratic districts.  The figure now is a complete estimate; I may do a more detailed CA analysis later and come up with a more reasonable figure.

Also, when I have to make judgment calls, I'm going to make them in favor of Trump; it's best in my mind to have a clear view of the worst case scenario.

[Erc]

I've added a Delegate Selection Calendar post to the first page.

Over 600 delegates have been chosen so far; we're just getting into the delegate selection season as we speak.

Pretty much every Saturday from now until May 21 should feature a State Convention, and there are CD conventions liberally sprinkled through the rest of the calendar.

Note that, due to RNC deadlines, the last delegate selection process is also on June 7 (the CA & NJ primaries); many later states actually have their delegate selection before their delegate allocation!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

When I have some time, I can do a little write up on the Tennessee delegates that I know.

I also have three good friends who very narrowly lost their races to be delegates, including one who was significantly ahead with 99% of the precincts in and went over a month thinking she had made it before finding out that she had been knocked out by the last few precincts.

[The Other Castro]

Thinking ahead to multiple convention ballots, the governors of states and state party chairmen could have decent amounts of sway in their states' delegate slates. Here's who Governors have endorsed that may go against Trump:

Cruz:
Walker (WI)
Herbert (UT)
Haley (SC)
Bryant (MS)
Abbott (TX)

Rubio:
Martinez (NM)
Haslam (TN)
Hutchinson (AR)
Brownback (KS)

Kasich:
Otter (ID)
Bentley (AL)

[Mr. Morden]

Per request, posted my current projections for the remaining states on the tumblr.

Reposting them here.  Comments and critiques are very welcome.

So, based on how you worded some of your post, e.g.:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

it looks like what you’re calculating here is not just a prediction for the number of delegates that would be pledged to each candidate, but their pledged delegates *plus* the unpledged delegates who are likely to vote for them on the first ballot.  I'd actually be more interested in seeing those kept as separate categories (pledged delegates in one category, and unpledged but likely to vote for X, or maybe even already endorsed, in another category).

This might be too large a project for us, but can we put together a categorization of all of the unpledged delegates: In a scenario where the outcome on the first ballot would be in doubt, how many have already endorsed someone, how many are strong leaners towards one candidate or the other, how many do we have no clue about, etc.?  Many delegates haven't even been chosen yet, but enough have that we could potentially keep track of this in the different categories, and get some sort of feeling for how many pledged delegates Trump would need before he's within "striking distance" with the unpledged delegates.  Even if exact numbers are a big mystery, any sort of rough idea on the number for each category would be interesting.

[Erc]

Thinking ahead to multiple convention ballots, the governors of states and state party chairmen could have decent amounts of sway in their states' delegate slates. Here's who Governors have endorsed that may go against Trump:

Cruz:
Walker (WI)
Herbert (UT)
Haley (SC)
Bryant (MS)
Abbott (TX)

Rubio:
Martinez (NM)
Haslam (TN)
Hutchinson (AR)
Brownback (KS)

Kasich:
Otter (ID)
Bentley (AL)

Note that, unlike on the Democratic side, Republican governors aren't guaranteed to be in the delegation (although it is relatively frequent; I know Kasich and Phil Bryant were there in 2012, for just two examples).

So far, the governors that have been chosen as delegates are Haslam (TN), Dalrymple (ND), Daugaard (SD), Calvo (GU), and Torres (MP).  That said, relatively few states have finished their selection processes yet; the only states that have finished and do not have their Republican governor in their delegation are Alabama (good thing too, because that would have been embarrassing) and Ohio (for obvious reasons).

[Matty]

What state can trump absolutely not afford to underperform in?

[Ebsy]

What state can trump absolutely not afford to underperform in?

New York.

[dax00]

What state can trump absolutely not afford to underperform in?

Besides the obvious (California nd New York), Delaware could be a very important battleground.

[Erc]

There are way fewer delegates really at stake in New York than people think.  I can't see Trump falling below 70 there, though of course the difference between 70 and 90 is nothing to be sneezed at.

California, obviously, is the main one.  Breaking even is not good enough, while a McCain-style landslide would most likely clinch him the nomination.

Pennsylvania is bigger than most people think, due to the promises many delegates have made to bind themselves to the winner of the district.  And the 17 At-Large delegates are nothing to sneeze at, either.  Even so, barring a win in Indiana or a knockout blow in California, Trump is going to need a fair share of those unpledged delegates in Pennsylvania; if he were to actually lose there, I don't see a real viable path forward for him.

Obviously, New Jersey is also a must-win, but if he's losing New Jersey he's obviously already lost the nomination.

[Torie]

You say that Trump will do well in heavily Dem CD's in CA, but the latest poll, has LA County as Cruz's strongest area by far, with a pretty substantial lead.

[windjammer]

Erc I think you're wrong:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If he gets 50%, he wins all the delegates. NY is a winner take most state.