The Delegate Fight: 2016

[yankeesfan]

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/04/07/gop-delegate-fight-coming-iowa/82746800/

Trump senior adviser Tana Goertz said the front-runner’s campaign is executing a “caucus-to-convention strategy” aimed at getting as many Trump backers to Cleveland as possible, although she declined to share details on how that effort was playing out in Iowa.

“We’re doing everything that every other campaign would do and more — I mean, we do work for Donald Trump,” Goertz said. “... We’re doing everything that any other campaign would be doing that’s ethically acceptable.”

As Patrick Svitek pointed out on twitter, that's a pretty sketchy quote.

[Erc]

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/04/07/gop-delegate-fight-coming-iowa/82746800/

Trump senior adviser Tana Goertz said the front-runner’s campaign is executing a “caucus-to-convention strategy” aimed at getting as many Trump backers to Cleveland as possible, although she declined to share details on how that effort was playing out in Iowa.

“We’re doing everything that every other campaign would do and more — I mean, we do work for Donald Trump,” Goertz said. “... We’re doing everything that any other campaign would be doing that’s ethically acceptable.”

As Patrick Svitek pointed out on twitter, that's a pretty sketchy quote.

Maybe it's trying to be a slam at Cruz and general ratery?  If so, didn't really come off that well.

In other news, Cruz picks up 3 more delegates in the CO-5 convention.  If he sweeps another CD, I'm calling the At-Large delegates for him as well (though we'll find out for sure tomorrow).

[Erc]

Cruz picks up 6 more delegates in Colorado.  With only one CD outstanding, I'm calling the At-Large delegation (another 13 delegates) for him as well.

One interesting thing to keep an eye on going forward...

Many states that can bind delegates on multiple ballots provide an automatic release mechanism if the candidate falls below X% of the votes on some ballot. In states where they exist, these range from 10% (California) to 35% (multiple states).

35% of the delegates is 866 delegates.  Trump will reach that number, though it's not certain that Cruz will; he will likely need a win in California or a significant number of unpledged delegates to get there.  Both are eminently possible, but neither are guaranteed.

[Erc]

Michigan chooses its delegates today and tomorrow at their State Convention.

Unlike many other states, they are taking a hard line against "ninja delegates"; it seems they are letting the campaigns vet their prospective delegates.

This is apparently due to a brouhaha during the 1988 campaign; these people have long memories.

That said, at least one Kasich delegate has said they will vote Cruz on the second ballot.

Generally, the Cruz folks seem to be better organized but are not officially trying to poach anyone else's delegates.  His slate of 14 CD delegates can be found on Twitter.  Everyone on his slate has won so far (I've found results for 5/14 CDs so far).

[JerryArkansas]

Erc, I'm wanting to make a map, and I was wondering if you could help me do it. 

I want to have a map showing who has won the delegates in a given congressional district so far.  By that, who they really support, not who they are bound to on the first ballot.

All of this would be for republicans of course.

[Erc]

Erc, I'm wanting to make a map, and I was wondering if you could help me do it. 

I want to have a map showing who has won the delegates in a given congressional district so far.  By that, who they really support, not who they are bound to on the first ballot.

All of this would be for republicans of course.

My spreadsheet would probably be the place to go for that, though it's still very incomplete (delegate selection process is still early, and I haven't done much effort to look for people's true commitments).

Also, note that some states don't do the delegate selection process on a CD basis at all (New Hampshire, certainly, and perhaps some others).  And of course there's the whole set of At-Large and RNC delegates.  There are only around 1321 CD delegates, only a bit over half of the total.

[yankeesfan]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/trump-washington-state-delegates-late-221725

Trump is getting his act together. But too late for Washington.  His campaign sent an email to supporters trying to get them to sign up to be delegates, but it was past the deadline already....

* * *

Donald Trump’s team is encouraging its supporters in Washington state to sign up to be a potential Trump delegate. The only problem: The campaign's local crew sent its email on Friday — two days after the filing deadline to appear on the printed ballot in Saturday's conventions and caucuses.

The email, headlined "invitation," encouraged supporters to submit their Declaration of Candidacy for Delegate form. But the very next sentence says the filing deadline was Wednesday.

“You can still be elected as a Trump Delegate at your GOP County Convention this Saturday!” the April 8 email, which was obtained by POLITICO, says. “If you have submitted a Declaration of Candidacy for Delegate form to your GOP County Chairman by the assigned deadline of 10:00am on April 6th."

[The Other Castro]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/trump-washington-state-delegates-late-221725

Trump is getting his act together. But too late for Washington.  His campaign sent an email to supporters trying to get them to sign up to be delegates, but it was past the deadline already....

* * *

Donald Trump’s team is encouraging its supporters in Washington state to sign up to be a potential Trump delegate. The only problem: The campaign's local crew sent its email on Friday — two days after the filing deadline to appear on the printed ballot in Saturday's conventions and caucuses.

The email, headlined "invitation," encouraged supporters to submit their Declaration of Candidacy for Delegate form. But the very next sentence says the filing deadline was Wednesday.

“You can still be elected as a Trump Delegate at your GOP County Convention this Saturday!” the April 8 email, which was obtained by POLITICO, says. “If you have submitted a Declaration of Candidacy for Delegate form to your GOP County Chairman by the assigned deadline of 10:00am on April 6th."

It's like watching a T-Rex trying to do pull-ups.

[republicanbayer]

Why are Kasich's VT, NH delegates released?

[Erc]

Why are Kasich's VT, NH delegates released?

Rule 40 of the RNC requires a candidate to command the support of eight state delegations before having his name placed into nomination.  So far, he's at one, Ohio.  While it is technically possible that he will qualify (as there are well over seven states remaining, as well as some insular territories/North Dakota that he could in principle win), it seems highly unlikely at this point.

It also seems unlikely at this time that the rule will be changed; both Trump and Cruz have effectively spoken out against a rules change.

As a result, I feel it's safe to project that Kasich will not be placed into nomination on the first ballot.  This doesn't affect all that much; the vast majority of his delegates are still bound to him and will have to vote for him on the first ballot (though those votes will not be tallied by the Secretary of the Convention).  There are two exceptions.  In New Hampshire, delegates are pledged as long as their candidate is a "candidate before [the] convention"; while this isn't 100% clear, I'm interpreting this as meaning they are released in the event they are not placed into nomination.  It's a bit academic anyway, as Kasich got to pick his delegates in New Hampshire, so they will likely vote for him on the first ballot anyway.  In Vermont, delegates are released if they are not "placed into nomination," which is precisely the case in question.  Vermont's delegates are chosen at their state convention on May 21, and will not necessarily be loyal to Kasich.  As a result, they really will be free agents on the first ballot.

Of course, this is all assuming that there aren't any major rules changes before the first ballot; if Cruz realizes that he may desperately need Vermont's delegates to be bound to prevent a first-ballot Trump win, we may see Rule 40 relaxed.

[Erc]

More news on the Yob front:

John Yob's father, Chuck Yob, was elected as an At-Large Kasich delegate today in his home state of Michigan.  He'll be bound to Kasich on the first ballot unless Kasich should drop out of the race.

[The Other Castro]

Can't keep a good Yob down.

[Classic Conservative]

In Virginia's 9th Congressional District Delegate Elections, today Cruz recieved 2 delegates and Trump recieved 1.
https://mobile.twitter.com/GregHabeeb/status/718894222523412482

[Erc]

In Virginia's 9th Congressional District Delegate Elections, today Cruz recieved 2 delegates and Trump recieved 1.
https://mobile.twitter.com/GregHabeeb/status/718894222523412482

Also chosen today so far (links in the spreadsheet):

SC-7
OK-2
KS-4
KY-1
KY-6 (3 delegates each)
Michigan At-Large (14)

Coming Up Later Today (or I haven't found results yet):

Iowa's CD Conventions (12)
Colorado At-Large (13)
Indiana CD Conventions (27)
SC-3
FL-8
FL-16
FL-20
FL-21
FL-22
NC-2
NC-4
NC-8
NC-9 (3 each)

I have no names out of NC, but Trump Twitter is already sure Cruz got the delegates there.

EDIT: PSA: Don't go on Trump Twitter if you value your faith in humanity.

[Likely Voter]

The Sanders campaign has released their own delegate count
pledged: https://berniesanders.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Sanders-State-by-State-1.pdf
unpledged: https://berniesanders.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Sanders-Publicly-Committed.pdf

Their pledged count is actually lower than the one at the beginning of this thread, discrepancies in NV, KS, IL, and NC.  And of course, not sure if the Clinton campaign agrees with their count.

[Classic Conservative]

Cruz sweeps all three delegates in Iowa's 4th District

[Erc]

The Sanders campaign has released their own delegate count
pledged: https://berniesanders.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Sanders-State-by-State-1.pdf
unpledged: https://berniesanders.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Sanders-Publicly-Committed.pdf

Their pledged count is actually lower than the one at the beginning of this thread, discrepancies in NV, KS, IL, and NC.  And of course, not sure if the Clinton campaign agrees with their count.

I saw the superdelegate list; I'll have to have a pass through the pledged.

[emailking]

EDIT: PSA: Don't go on Trump Twitter if you value your faith in humanity.

And it's actually gotten much tamer in the last few weeks.

[Ebsy]

Erc, Clinton gained a delegate from Sanders in KS-04. When the vote was broken down, it ended up going 3-2 instead of 4-1. Sanders count of delegates and AP confirm this. The number should be 23 Sanders, 10 Clinton.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/KS-D

[Erc]

Erc, Clinton gained a delegate from Sanders in KS-04. When the vote was broken down, it ended up going 3-2 instead of 4-1. Sanders count of delegates and AP confirm this. The number should be 23 Sanders, 10 Clinton.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/KS-D

There had apparently been some earlier confusion on this front, but it all seems to add up now for the 23-10 figure.

In Illinois, the CD breakdown was always uncertain; if Sanders is going to go with a more Clinton-favorable number, I'm not going to argue.

In North Carolina, on the other hand, that number seems too favorable to Clinton, so I'm going to hold off on changing that for the time being.

In Nevada, it would seem that the Sanders camp and I disagree on the rules (i.e. whether the CD delegates are bound at the state convention or by the February caucus vote).  Sanders probably wins this fight, as he will control the state convention, but I'm keeping my figures for now.

[Erc]

Cruz wins 11/12 delegates in Iowa today.  The 12th is staying Uncommitted, but seems anti-Trump.

Of course, this doesn't change the first ballot but is obviously a good sign for Cruz on the 2nd.

[Ronnie]

Jeez, how many pro-Trump delegates are going to show up at the convention?  5?

[Erc]

Jeez, how many pro-Trump delegates are going to show up at the convention?  5?

He can definitely count on the delegates that he chose himself or vetted before their appearance on the ballot.  Namely: New Hampshire, Alabama, (most of) Tennessee, New Jersey, Maryland, West Virginia, (most of) Illinois, (most of) Idaho, Hawaii, California, Connecticut, his one delegate in Wyoming, plus the three unpledged that have endorsed him so far.

Also, many states are playing fair with him.  Trump's delegates in Michigan (also selected today) were signed off by the Trump campaign, as apparently were his delegates (though not the Uncommitteds) in Louisiana.

That said, we've also been hearing reports of of Iowa, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Virginia, etc., where Cruz is dominating (or at least making a serious play at) the delegates.

Cruz wins this on the second, or at worst, third, ballot, unless Trump can scrape over the finish line on the first ballot.  And I sincerely doubt Cruz would let him do that, even if the resulting tactics would lead to riots.

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz wins this on the second, or at worst, third, ballot, unless Trump can scrape over the finish line on the first ballot.  And I sincerely doubt Cruz would let him do that, even if the resulting tactics would lead to riots.

Sorry, can you explain what you mean by the sentence I bolded above?  You sincerely doubt Cruz would let Trump do what?  Win narrowly on the first ballot?  How does Cruz stop him from doing so if he has the numbers?  Use the "nuclear option" of changing the rules so that all the delegates are unbound on the first ballot, or something like that?

[Erc]

Actually, it seems Cruz had a rare loss in Michigan.

In terms of committee assignments, it seems Trump and Kasich prevented an attempt by Cruz to just take everything over, and themselves locked Cruz supporters out.  It doesn't seem like this extended to delegates, where at least on the At-Large level I believe each candidate got what they wanted.

In particular, and hilariously, this means Chuck Yob is now on the Credentials Committee that will be deciding the fate of his son's contested delegation from the Virgin Islands.