The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Erc]

Cruz wins this on the second, or at worst, third, ballot, unless Trump can scrape over the finish line on the first ballot.  And I sincerely doubt Cruz would let him do that, even if the resulting tactics would lead to riots.

Sorry, can you explain what you mean by the sentence I bolded above?  You sincerely doubt Cruz would let Trump do what?  Win narrowly on the first ballot?  How does Cruz stop him from doing so if he has the numbers?  Use the "nuclear option" of changing the rules so that all the delegates are unbound on the first ballot, or something like that?

Yeah, I honestly think Cruz uses the nuclear option if necessary, and he knows he has the support of 1400 delegates or so.

That latter half is a tall order, but is it impossible?  I'll take another look next month after the bulk of this delegate selection has gone through.

[The Other Castro]

Honestly, this whole Yob story makes for a great subplot in case "Game Change 3: All In" is a very long book.

[yankeesfan]

I just heard that during the convention, the delegates are unbound when voting for a VP candidate.  Meaning that if Trump wins the nomination on the first ballot, his #NeverTrump delegates could defect and nominate a VP candidate that Trump is forced to accept. 

That's an interesting scenario.

[Erc]

I just heard that during the convention, the delegates are unbound when voting for a VP candidate.  Meaning that if Trump wins the nomination on the first ballot, his #NeverTrump delegates could defect and nominate a VP candidate that Trump is forced to accept. 

That's an interesting scenario.

Yep!  Anyone know the last time the candidate didn't just get to choose their VP?  Stevenson/Kefauver in '56?

Could be quite important as the effective candidate for the 46th President (after a Trump impeachment and removal) or for some sort of "John Ewards"-style trick in the Electoral Collage.

[Ebsy]

If Trump wins on the first ballot, there will have to be some kind of reconciliation. We know Trump loves to make deals, so he will likely haggle with the RNC over someone both sides find acceptable as a running mate, and they'll all come together by the end of the convention to roast marshmallows while singing campfire songs.

Or of course, in the case Trump isn't nominated, riots.

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz wins this on the second, or at worst, third, ballot, unless Trump can scrape over the finish line on the first ballot.  And I sincerely doubt Cruz would let him do that, even if the resulting tactics would lead to riots.

Sorry, can you explain what you mean by the sentence I bolded above?  You sincerely doubt Cruz would let Trump do what?  Win narrowly on the first ballot?  How does Cruz stop him from doing so if he has the numbers?  Use the "nuclear option" of changing the rules so that all the delegates are unbound on the first ballot, or something like that?

Yeah, I honestly think Cruz uses the nuclear option if necessary, and he knows he has the support of 1400 delegates or so.

Even if he has the support of that many delegates in terms of who their preferred candidate is, is he really going to have the support of that many delegates in favor of engaging in highly controversial procedural shenanigans like the "nuclear option"?  I am skeptical.  Even among the delegates who support him, won't there be plenty of people who are not really diehard Cruz-istas, but are instead just people who like Cruz the best among the remaining field?  People who will do their own thing on procedural votes?

[dax00]

I just heard that during the convention, the delegates are unbound when voting for a VP candidate.  Meaning that if Trump wins the nomination on the first ballot, his #NeverTrump delegates could defect and nominate a VP candidate that Trump is forced to accept. 

That's an interesting scenario.

They could nominate Sarah "I can see Russia from my house" Palin.

Actually, it seems Cruz had a rare loss in Michigan.

In terms of committee assignments, it seems Trump and Kasich prevented an attempt by Cruz to just take everything over, and themselves locked Cruz supporters out.  It doesn't seem like this extended to delegates, where at least on the At-Large level I believe each candidate got what they wanted.

In particular, and hilariously, this means Chuck Yob is now on the Credentials Committee that will be deciding the fate of his son's contested delegation from the Virgin Islands.

This all but affirms my prediction that the 3 from the Yob coalition, if they hold their delegate spots, will side with Trump.

[Erc]

In continued Yob news: a final ruling on the Yobs' residency is expected on Monday.  Tea leaves seem to suggest a ruling in the Yobs' favor.

In the event the ruling is against the Yobs, anyone want to bet Canegata instantly drops his objections to the other three initially-elected delegates?

Even if he has the support of that many delegates in terms of who their preferred candidate is, is he really going to have the support of that many delegates in favor of engaging in highly controversial procedural shenanigans like the "nuclear option"?  I am skeptical.  Even among the delegates who support him, won't there be plenty of people who are not really diehard Cruz-istas, but are instead just people who like Cruz the best among the remaining field?  People who will do their own thing on procedural votes?

You're probably right here.  I don't think Cruz would do it unless he knew it would work, and work on the first ballot.  He'd need to have the unwavering loyalty of a clear majority of delegates in order to pull it off, and considering he's only starting at 800-odd, that's a tall, tall order.

[MT Treasurer]

Indiana’s delegates are already lined up against Trump

[Ebsy]

http://progressivearmy.com/2016/04/10/bernie-sanders-wins-missouri-after-all/

Erc, claims like this have been flying around the internet for the past couple of days, and I figured I should bring it up here. I'm pretty sure that these "mass meetings" held for delegate selection have exactly 0 impact on which candidate gets national delegates, and that they are awarded based on the actual primary vote, but I figured I should check in with you.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bw8qd8A8ZSVLY0RGWFNtMlJkdXc/view

Stupidity on this scale is really just staggering sometimes.

[emailking]

I just heard that during the convention, the delegates are unbound when voting for a VP candidate.  Meaning that if Trump wins the nomination on the first ballot, his #NeverTrump delegates could defect and nominate a VP candidate that Trump is forced to accept. 

That's an interesting scenario.

They could nominate Sarah "I can see Russia from my house" Palin.

She never said that. She said you can see Russia from Alaska which is true.

[Erc]

http://progressivearmy.com/2016/04/10/bernie-sanders-wins-missouri-after-all/

Erc, claims like this have been flying around the internet for the past couple of days, and I figured I should bring it up here. I'm pretty sure that these "mass meetings" held for delegate selection have exactly 0 impact on which candidate gets national delegates, and that they are awarded based on the actual primary vote, but I figured I should check in with you.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bw8qd8A8ZSVLY0RGWFNtMlJkdXc/view

Stupidity on this scale is really just staggering sometimes.

Yes, the delegates are bound based on the primary.  It's only in a minority of caucus states where delegate binding isn't based on the votes [or occasionally reweighted votes] of the people on caucus day.  All primaries bind their delegates directly.

That said, this could matter if Bernie is trying to pull off a Ted Kennedy-style coup, and have the delegates vote to unbind themselves.  However, the Democrats are pretty good at having mechanisms to ensure this doesn't happen on a grand scale (as their delegate selection mechanisms are proportional, as well)...so I doubt they could even get a majority of the pledged delegates to back them (especially since some of them are PLEOs), let alone the supers.

[Wiz in Wis]

I just heard that during the convention, the delegates are unbound when voting for a VP candidate.  Meaning that if Trump wins the nomination on the first ballot, his #NeverTrump delegates could defect and nominate a VP candidate that Trump is forced to accept. 

That's an interesting scenario.

They could nominate Sarah "I can see Russia from my house" Palin.

She never said that. She said you can see Russia from Alaska which is true.

[Vosem]

Actually, it seems Cruz had a rare loss in Michigan.

In terms of committee assignments, it seems Trump and Kasich prevented an attempt by Cruz to just take everything over, and themselves locked Cruz supporters out.  It doesn't seem like this extended to delegates, where at least on the At-Large level I believe each candidate got what they wanted.

In particular, and hilariously, this means Chuck Yob is now on the Credentials Committee that will be deciding the fate of his son's contested delegation from the Virgin Islands.

This all but affirms my prediction that the 3 from the Yob coalition, if they hold their delegate spots, will side with Trump.

You do know that Chuck Yob is a Kasich delegate and his son worked for the Rand Paul campaign, right? (Other candidates John Yob has worked for -- including McCain's presidential campaign, Santorum's presidential campaign, and Mark Neumann's 2012 Senate campaign -- have pretty much uniformly backed the #Never_trump camp). There's also the fact that the man who wrote the book on contested conventions (literally) might be disinclined to back someone who pooh-poohs the very idea and suggests the person who wins the most primary votes should automatically become candidate.

I think, considering his father and Mark Neumann are both Kasich supporters, John Yob is likeliest to be a quiet Kasich supporter than anything else. But it's very difficult to imagine him supporting _trump.

[Ebsy]

I'm starting to suspect that the Yob family are going to be the protagonists of Game Change: 2016.

[Lief 🗽]

Actually, it seems Cruz had a rare loss in Michigan.

In terms of committee assignments, it seems Trump and Kasich prevented an attempt by Cruz to just take everything over, and themselves locked Cruz supporters out.  It doesn't seem like this extended to delegates, where at least on the At-Large level I believe each candidate got what they wanted.

In particular, and hilariously, this means Chuck Yob is now on the Credentials Committee that will be deciding the fate of his son's contested delegation from the Virgin Islands.

This all but affirms my prediction that the 3 from the Yob coalition, if they hold their delegate spots, will side with Trump.

You do know that Chuck Yob is a Kasich delegate and his son worked for the Rand Paul campaign, right? (Other candidates John Yob has worked for -- including McCain's presidential campaign, Santorum's presidential campaign, and Mark Neumann's 2012 Senate campaign -- have pretty much uniformly backed the #Never_trump camp). There's also the fact that the man who wrote the book on contested conventions (literally) might be disinclined to back someone who pooh-poohs the very idea and suggests the person who wins the most primary votes should automatically become candidate.

I think, considering his father and Mark Neumann are both Kasich supporters, John Yob is likeliest to be a quiet Kasich supporter than anything else. But it's very difficult to imagine him supporting _trump.

Yeah but this is all before TRUMP bribes him.

[Vosem]

Actually, it seems Cruz had a rare loss in Michigan.

In terms of committee assignments, it seems Trump and Kasich prevented an attempt by Cruz to just take everything over, and themselves locked Cruz supporters out.  It doesn't seem like this extended to delegates, where at least on the At-Large level I believe each candidate got what they wanted.

In particular, and hilariously, this means Chuck Yob is now on the Credentials Committee that will be deciding the fate of his son's contested delegation from the Virgin Islands.

This all but affirms my prediction that the 3 from the Yob coalition, if they hold their delegate spots, will side with Trump.

You do know that Chuck Yob is a Kasich delegate and his son worked for the Rand Paul campaign, right? (Other candidates John Yob has worked for -- including McCain's presidential campaign, Santorum's presidential campaign, and Mark Neumann's 2012 Senate campaign -- have pretty much uniformly backed the #Never_trump camp). There's also the fact that the man who wrote the book on contested conventions (literally) might be disinclined to back someone who pooh-poohs the very idea and suggests the person who wins the most primary votes should automatically become candidate.

I think, considering his father and Mark Neumann are both Kasich supporters, John Yob is likeliest to be a quiet Kasich supporter than anything else. But it's very difficult to imagine him supporting _trump.

Yeah but this is all before TRUMP bribes him.

Nah, the reason _trump isn't releasing his tax returns is he hasn't got money left. All the money, authority, and WINNING at the convention will be had and done by Ted Cruz, and it'll be glorious.

[Erc]

Holland Redfield, VI RNC committeeman (and a delegate regardless of the credentials fight), seems to have come out strongly in favor of the Yob slate.

[Erc]

Trump got swept in the 4th District Convention in South Carolina yesterday, with the 3 delegate slots going to 2 long-time Cruz backers (Stephen Brown, Robert Ryggs) and 1 committed anti-Trump evangelical (Nate Leupp).

[Erc]

Apparently the Colorado Democrats did their reporting by voice recognition on caucus night, leading to some predictable errors.

A recent re-check of the results finds that Sanders wins the 1st CD 5-3, rather than splitting it 4-4, leading to a new pledged delegate count of 39-27 in the state.

This is really an academic distinction, as Colorado chooses its delegates based on the votes at CD & State Conventions (as in Iowa), so even if this error had not been caught, it would not have made a difference in the final totals (as it did not affect the election of delegates from the precinct caucuses, barring issues with credentials).

[Erc]

Unknown Delegates

In my continuing effort to find out the identities of all the delegates, some are beginning to slip through the cracks.  If anyone has any leads on the delegates chosen in the following jurisdictions, it'd be much appreciated:

Oklahoma's 4th CD (3 delegates)
Florida: CDs 5-10, 15-18, 20-22 (39 delegates)
North Carolina: CDs 1,2,3,4,7,8,9,13 (24 delegates)
Indiana: All CDs 1-9 (27 delegates).

Potentially, some of Idaho's delegates have been selected by the campaigns as well, though I'm unsure about this.

I'm keeping a running list of these going in the "Unknown Delegates" tab on my spreadsheet; this list may grow or shrink as time goes on.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

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[Joe Republic]

You left out the contrived outrage mentioned in your title from the article excerpt.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

You left out the contrived outrage mentioned in your title from the article excerpt.

Why'd this get merged? It's pretty ridiculous that the Colorado Democratic party covered it up until the congressional district caucus.

From the article.

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[Joe Republic]

Wait, so Bernie won 1 more delegate than expected, and you're still complaining.  Jesus.