The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Landslide Lyndon]

It seems that all the delegates chosen from Georgia's 7h CD are anti-TRUMP.

[ElectionsGuy]

According to my math, with 1307 pledged delegates, she needs another 1076 pledged delegates to get to 2383 delegates overall not including superdelegates, which is 65.3% of the remaining pledged delegates. This is what she needs for Sanders to concede before the convention. I believe he's said that he would take it to the convention if neither candidate had a majority of all delegates with just pledged delegates.

She would obviously win a contested convention when the super delegates will support her with North Korea margins, its just notable that Bernie Sanders will likely be a large force there.

[Gass3268]

According to my math, with 1307 pledged delegates, she needs another 1076 pledged delegates to get to 2383 delegates overall not including superdelegates, which is 65.3% of the remaining pledged delegates. This is what she needs for Sanders to concede before the convention. I believe he's said that he would take it to the convention if neither candidate had a majority of all delegates with just pledged delegates.

She would obviously win a contested convention when the super delegates will support her with North Korea margins, its just notable that Bernie Sanders will likely be a large force there.

Depending on how the next two weeks (NY, PA, MD, etc) plus the last week (CA & NJ) go, she might get that number.

[ElectionsGuy]

According to my math, with 1307 pledged delegates, she needs another 1076 pledged delegates to get to 2383 delegates overall not including superdelegates, which is 65.3% of the remaining pledged delegates. This is what she needs for Sanders to concede before the convention. I believe he's said that he would take it to the convention if neither candidate had a majority of all delegates with just pledged delegates.

She would obviously win a contested convention when the super delegates will support her with North Korea margins, its just notable that Bernie Sanders will likely be a large force there.

Depending on how the next two weeks (NY, PA, MD, etc) plus the last week (CA & NJ) go, she might get that number.

You think she get around 65% of the vote overall in those states?

[Gass3268]

According to my math, with 1307 pledged delegates, she needs another 1076 pledged delegates to get to 2383 delegates overall not including superdelegates, which is 65.3% of the remaining pledged delegates. This is what she needs for Sanders to concede before the convention. I believe he's said that he would take it to the convention if neither candidate had a majority of all delegates with just pledged delegates.

She would obviously win a contested convention when the super delegates will support her with North Korea margins, its just notable that Bernie Sanders will likely be a large force there.

Depending on how the next two weeks (NY, PA, MD, etc) plus the last week (CA & NJ) go, she might get that number.

You think she get around 65% of the vote overall in those states?

Whoops, I read that wrong. Yeah Sanders is going to make everyone vote at the convention.

[Landslide Lyndon]

VA-10, a district won by Rubio, elected 3 Cruz delegates.

https://twitter.com/KateGaziano/status/721427860980940800

[Erc]

Clinton-Sanders enthusiasm gap continues in Colorado, where Sanders picks up 2 delegates at the State Convention today at Clinton's expense (1 extra At-Large and 1 extra pledged PLEO).  He had 63% at the state convention, compared to initial projections of 59%.

Final count: Sanders 41 - Clinton 25.

Sanders has picked up a total of 4 (perhaps 6, depending on rules interpretations) from being better mobilized at these conventions, so far.  

[Likely Voter]

Clinton-Sanders enthusiasm gap continues in Colorado, where Sanders picks up 2 delegates at the State Convention today at Clinton's expense (1 extra At-Large and 1 extra pledged PLEO).  He had 63% at the state convention, compared to initial projections of 59%.

Final count: Sanders 41 - Clinton 25.

Sanders has picked up a total of 4 (perhaps 6, depending on rules interpretations) from being better mobilized at these conventions, so far.  

Jeff Weaver was on WADR and when pressed on how they plan to get to a majority he said in part would be their efforts to squeeze more out of the caucus state conventions, "15-20" in total.   He also said they would do very well in NY, and win PA, CT, RI, CA, OR, MT, SD and ND.

[Erc]

Clinton-Sanders enthusiasm gap continues in Colorado, where Sanders picks up 2 delegates at the State Convention today at Clinton's expense (1 extra At-Large and 1 extra pledged PLEO).  He had 63% at the state convention, compared to initial projections of 59%.

Final count: Sanders 41 - Clinton 25.

Sanders has picked up a total of 4 (perhaps 6, depending on rules interpretations) from being better mobilized at these conventions, so far.

Jeff Weaver was on WADR and when pressed on how they plan to get to a majority he said in part would be their efforts to squeeze more out of the caucus state conventions, "15-20" in total.   He also said they would do very well in NY, and win PA, CT, RI, CA, OR, MT, SD and ND.

They can very easily get one more out of Iowa, two more out of Nevada (though the latter might be subject to a credentials fight), but honestly that's about it.  15-20 isn't physically possible barring violence.

[Mehmentum]

I've been sifting through twitter about the results of today's conventions.

GA-7: a Cruz-Rubio alliance elects 2 Cruz supporters as Trump's delegates, Rubio's delegate is the convention chairman.

GA-11: Cruz- 2 Uncommited- 1 GA-6: Cruz- 2 Trump- 1

GA-9: 3 Not Trump delegates.

SC-1: 3 Cruz supporters elected as Trump's delegates.

OK-1: Cruz sweep of all 3 delegates, including a delegate for Rubio which will be unbound on the first vote.

KS-1 may have been a Cruz sweep.

[Likely Voter]

Clinton-Sanders enthusiasm gap continues in Colorado, where Sanders picks up 2 delegates at the State Convention today at Clinton's expense (1 extra At-Large and 1 extra pledged PLEO).  He had 63% at the state convention, compared to initial projections of 59%.

Final count: Sanders 41 - Clinton 25.

Sanders has picked up a total of 4 (perhaps 6, depending on rules interpretations) from being better mobilized at these conventions, so far.

Jeff Weaver was on WADR and when pressed on how they plan to get to a majority he said in part would be their efforts to squeeze more out of the caucus state conventions, "15-20" in total.   He also said they would do very well in NY, and win PA, CT, RI, CA, OR, MT, SD and ND.

They can very easily get one more out of Iowa, two more out of Nevada (though the latter might be subject to a credentials fight), but honestly that's about it.  15-20 isn't physically possible barring violence.

What about upcoming conventions from the other caucus states like ME, KS, NE,  ID, etc?

[Erc]

Clinton-Sanders enthusiasm gap continues in Colorado, where Sanders picks up 2 delegates at the State Convention today at Clinton's expense (1 extra At-Large and 1 extra pledged PLEO).  He had 63% at the state convention, compared to initial projections of 59%.

Final count: Sanders 41 - Clinton 25.

Sanders has picked up a total of 4 (perhaps 6, depending on rules interpretations) from being better mobilized at these conventions, so far.

Jeff Weaver was on WADR and when pressed on how they plan to get to a majority he said in part would be their efforts to squeeze more out of the caucus state conventions, "15-20" in total.   He also said they would do very well in NY, and win PA, CT, RI, CA, OR, MT, SD and ND.

They can very easily get one more out of Iowa, two more out of Nevada (though the latter might be subject to a credentials fight), but honestly that's about it.  15-20 isn't physically possible barring violence.

What about upcoming conventions from the other caucus states like ME, KS, NE,  ID, etc?

The majority of them bind their delegates based on the original caucus vote; the few remaining that don't would require larger swings than we've seen so far to move delegates.

[Shadows]

Clinton-Sanders enthusiasm gap continues in Colorado, where Sanders picks up 2 delegates at the State Convention today at Clinton's expense (1 extra At-Large and 1 extra pledged PLEO).  He had 63% at the state convention, compared to initial projections of 59%.

Final count: Sanders 41 - Clinton 25.

Sanders has picked up a total of 4 (perhaps 6, depending on rules interpretations) from being better mobilized at these conventions, so far.

Jeff Weaver was on WADR and when pressed on how they plan to get to a majority he said in part would be their efforts to squeeze more out of the caucus state conventions, "15-20" in total.   He also said they would do very well in NY, and win PA, CT, RI, CA, OR, MT, SD and ND.

They can very easily get one more out of Iowa, two more out of Nevada (though the latter might be subject to a credentials fight), but honestly that's about it.  15-20 isn't physically possible barring violence.

Iowa they will get 3-4 atleast, I mean o Malley's delegates aren't done, so that would automatically flip it 23-21, he can get more, Nevada too.

Washington, Alaska, Idaho, Utah - Some of these states may have a blowout & Hillary may not even get 15%. I think 25-30 is possible with a push!

[Erc]

Clinton-Sanders enthusiasm gap continues in Colorado, where Sanders picks up 2 delegates at the State Convention today at Clinton's expense (1 extra At-Large and 1 extra pledged PLEO).  He had 63% at the state convention, compared to initial projections of 59%.

Final count: Sanders 41 - Clinton 25.

Sanders has picked up a total of 4 (perhaps 6, depending on rules interpretations) from being better mobilized at these conventions, so far.

Jeff Weaver was on WADR and when pressed on how they plan to get to a majority he said in part would be their efforts to squeeze more out of the caucus state conventions, "15-20" in total.   He also said they would do very well in NY, and win PA, CT, RI, CA, OR, MT, SD and ND.

They can very easily get one more out of Iowa, two more out of Nevada (though the latter might be subject to a credentials fight), but honestly that's about it.  15-20 isn't physically possible barring violence.

Iowa they will get 3-4 atleast, I mean o Malley's delegates aren't done, so that would automatically flip it 23-21, he can get more, Nevada too.

Washington, Alaska, Idaho, Utah - Some of these states may have a blowout & Hillary may not even get 15%. I think 25-30 is possible with a push!

The "O'Malley" and "Uncommitted" delegates to the state convention are Sanders delegates in disguise.  Evidence so far suggests the Clinton folks are relatively well-organized in Iowa; the debacle in Polk County was a one-off that is unlikely to be repeated.

The one At-Large delegate is obviously doable...though remember that the State Convention happens on June 18, four days after the final primary and eleven days after the media will have declared the race over.  Obviously, a fair number of Sanders supporters will go into that bunker, but it's not guaranteed that they all will.

Their next target in Iowa would be CD 3; they made up some ground there thanks to Polk County, but still less than half of what they needed.  The enthusiasm gap is likely to matter less the further you get on in the process, as the folks agreeing to be delegates at the higher-tier conventions are more likely to show up and actually be committed.  I don't see Sanders pulling it off there.

I'll address the other states later; I'm going to need to do a careful reading of their rules again.

[Erc]

Democratic Caucus States and Allocation of Delegates

So, the Delegate Selection plans for all the states follow a pretty rote formula, down to exactly the same boilerplate in some cases.  For example, here's Iowa talking about how it allocates CD-level delegates.

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Now, here's Nevada's:

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Note that that's exactly the same, just subbing "Nevada" for "Iowa" and, critically, dropping the final sentence.  Iowa's CD delegates are allocated based on the results at the District Conventions (although, looking at it again, one could make an argument that they are not), whereas Nevada's are determined by the original caucus vote.

Most of the other states have language very similar to this.  Going through them and summarizing; ones that could be changed by future multi-stage shenanigans are in bold.  (Everywhere, At-Large includes pledged PLEO delegates).

Iowa: CD delegates chosen based on CD conventions; At-Large delegates chosen based on State Convention.
Nevada: CD delegates chosen based on caucus; At-Large delegates chosen based on State Convention.
Colorado: CD delegates chosen based on caucus (I was wrong here, that error would have mattered if it had not been caught, sorry jfern); At-Large delegates chosen based on State Convention.
Minnesota: CD and At-Large delegates chosen based on caucus.
Kansas: CD and At-Large delegates chosen based on caucus.
Nebraska: CD and At-Large delegates chosen based on caucus.
Maine: CD and At-Large delegates chosen based on State Convention.
Idaho: CD delegates chosen based on caucus; At-Large delegates chosen based on State Convention.
Utah: CD and At-Large delegates chosen based on caucus.
Alaska: CD delegates chosen based on caucus; At-Large delegates chosen based on State Convention.
Hawaii: CD and At-Large delegates chosen based on caucus.
Washington: CD delegates chosen based on caucus; At-Large delegates chosen based on CD delegates.
Wyoming: CD delegates chosen based on caucus; At-Large delegates chosen based on State Convention.
North Dakota: CD delegates chosen based on caucus; At-Large delegates chosen based on CD delegates.

Sanders delegate targets, ordered by swing (how much additional percent of the vote in the jurisdiction he would need to net an additional delegate):

Iowa At-Large (0.1%)
Maine CD 1 (1.0%)
Iowa CD 3 (2.0%)
Alaska At-Large (3.9%)
Iowa CD 2 (4.4%)
Idaho PLEO (4.7%)
Maine At-Large (5.5%)
Iowa CD 1 (6.0%)
Idaho At-Large (6.4%)
Wyoming At-Large (6.8%)

For comparison, the gain so far in Nevada (likely to be the largest he is ever going to be able to pull off, due to how Nevada, and Clark County in particular, has WAY too many delegates attending these middle-tier conventions) is 7.9%.  I've not listed any swings larger than that figure.  For comparison, the swing in Colorado was around 4% (he only needed 1.7% to net both delegates).

Iowa At-Large is the obvious target, followed by Maine CD 1, neither of which I would be surprised if they flip.  Alaska is likely the next target; I'd honestly be surprised if anything else (or IA CD 3) flipped.

[yankeesfan]

http://www.redstate.com/moe_lane/2016/04/16/donald-trump-west-virginia-delegates-ceiling/

Someone did the math on Trump's West Virginia delegate slate.  Apparently he has a ceiling of 19 out of 22 potential statewide delegates (probably less).

[Mehmentum]

What would we ever do without you erc?

[Erc]

I've been sifting through twitter about the results of today's conventions.

GA-7: a Cruz-Rubio alliance elects 2 Cruz supporters as Trump's delegates, Rubio's delegate is the convention chairman.

GA-11: Cruz- 2 Uncommited- 1 GA-6: Cruz- 2 Trump- 1

GA-9: 3 Not Trump delegates.

SC-1: 3 Cruz supporters elected as Trump's delegates.

OK-1: Cruz sweep of all 3 delegates, including a delegate for Rubio which will be unbound on the first vote.

KS-1 may have been a Cruz sweep.

Thanks for these tips!

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

What would we ever do without you erc?

Woefully unelightened. Many thanks, Erc!

[Joe Republic]

I was bored, so here's a map of the superdelegate endorsements:

Yellow = uncommitted

Utah is a 2-2 split between Clinton and Sanders, and Oregon is a 6-6-1 tie between Clinton and uncommitted.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, you seem to be the only one who has it, but MS-03 did choose a Bernie delegate today.

[Erc]

With Cynthia Lummis failing to get elected as a delegate in Wyoming, that count of 181 unbound delegates on the first ballot seems pretty secure.

Possible changes to that:
1) Credentials fight in Virgin Islands (-4)
2) Dispute over Alaska binding (+5)
3) Uncommitted delegates winning in West Virginia due to arcane rules (+a few, possibly)
4) Kasich winning some surprise delegates in Indiana

[Erc]

Cruz won 11/12 delegates and alternates at play in Oklahoma this weekend.

Unfortunately for him, the one slot they lost was a Rubio delegate slot that went to a Trump supporter, Daren Ward.  That's one of the two delegates at play this weekend in Oklahoma whose vote matters on the first ballot.

[BCSWowbagger]

I just found this spreadsheet while trying to update my own.  Amazing work.  You found quite a few that I could not.  May I return the favor by trying to fill in a few of your blanks as well?

I'm too new to this forum to be able to post links, but:

In GA-1, I am told that Cruz had a clean sweep of the delegates.  I have not been able to find any names.  (twitter.com/EduKtorDude/status/721438998728716289)

In GA-2, you have mostly the same sources I do, but I note that Alec Poitevant is an ex-Rubio endorser (politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/02/11/marco-rubio-picks-up-another-establishment-georgia-republican-endorsement/), and the vast majority of Rubio people end up in Camp Cruz... so, if the twitter account you cited is accurate, and GA-2 was 2 Trump 1 Cruz, it seems very likely to me that Mr. Poitevant is the Cruz guy.

In GA-7, Mr. Van Gundy is a Cruz supporter: (facebook.com/bjvangundy/posts/10208803870594035?comment_id=10208804084199375)

In GA-9, Ms. Mahoney was on the Cruz slate: (pbs.twimg.com/media/CgK0vaCWwAAWSjK.jpg)

Mr. Azevedo and Ashley Bell are reportedly anti-Trump, but I have not been able to verify this more reputably than this tweet: (twitter.com/CodyHall09/status/721439115040976898)

In GA-10, Mr. Coswert is for Kasich (politics.blog.ajc.com/2015/09/14/john-kasich-picks-up-bill-cowsert-other-georgia-endorsements/) and Mr. Shook is from the Cruz slate (twitter.com/Aaron_The_Hutt/status/721352578987114496)

In KS-1, Mr. Arpke and Ms. Mast both came from the Cruz slate (twitter.com/JohnCelock/status/721372569174036480).  No information on Mr. Bohnenblust except that he's been chair of that district for a long, long time.  The tweet you found suggesting a "sweep" seems clearly wrong, since the Cruz slate did not win.

In KS-2, Trump won his only delegate: taken as a whole, Cheryl Reynolds' Twitter makes that clear. (twitter.com/CherylReynolds).  Ms. Paulus, on the other hand, is both bound to Cruz and backs him personally (facebook.com/bepaulus/posts/10208587772439095?comment_id=10208589260756302).

In KS-3 and 4, Grosserode and Kahrs are both True Cruz people, being on his state leadership team (blog.4president.org/2016/2016/02/ted-cruz-for-president-announces-kansas-leadership-team.html), and Wheatcroft was on the Cruz slate.  And Dalton Glasscock, aside from having the best name of the day, turned out (after ages searching) to have "Liked" Students for Cruz on Facebook (facebook.com/daltonglasscock1/likes).  The only other candidate he's shown Facebook support for his Carly, who has also endorsed Cruz, so I think it's safe to call him a Cruz guy.

Again, you've done amazing work here.  Thank you so much.  I'll be tracking this spreadsheet closely from here on out.  

My own spreadsheet -- which is much sloppier than yours, and which I'm still filling in with information I'm bumming off you -- is here: (docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EuyzjVHq2Ku_eU-4TLaNP5CyY_PXAykaSgZWZuEPfCg/edit#gid=261285562) .  Have a great day!

EDIT: Wait, you live in MN-5?  I'm just over the river in 4 -- not too far from St. Kate's!  *vigorous waving*

[Shadows]

3M calls by Bernie's supporters in the last 48 hours - Mostly to NY - Amazing, unreal effort - Hope we can get a somewhat close result!