The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Erc]

Part of an larger anti-Canegata piece by Holland Redfield, but one that provides a longer perspective:

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This helps explains why the Virgin Islands was the only party not to submit a delegate selection plan on time, why there was so much confusion as to the date of the caucus, and ultimately why the caucus was held on a Thursday.

It also seems like Canegata is pulling the same postdating of documents trick again.

If last year is any precedent, the odds seem to be in favor of the Yobs at the Credentials committee.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wait, so Bernie won 1 more delegate than expected, and you're still complaining.  Jesus.

The party shouldn't tell just Hillary and keep it a secret from the public and the Bernie campaign. That's corruption.

[Erc]

Wait, so Bernie won 1 more delegate than expected, and you're still complaining.  Jesus.

The party shouldn't tell just Hillary and keep it a secret from the public and the Bernie campaign. That's corruption.

You realize that this doesn't even matter, right?  The delegates to Philadelphia are bound based on the results of the CD conventions, not on the original caucus vote.  The election of the actual physical delegates from the precinct caucuses to the county conventions was carried out correctly, just the wrong numbers were reported to the media.

Even if the error had never been caught, it would have been "corrected" by the results of the CD 1 convention on April 9, anyway.

The actual figure is only of interest to a subset of people on this forum, literally nobody else in the world.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wait, so Bernie won 1 more delegate than expected, and you're still complaining.  Jesus.

The party shouldn't tell just Hillary and keep it a secret from the public and the Bernie campaign. That's corruption.

You realize that this doesn't even matter, right?  The delegates to Philadelphia are bound based on the results of the CD conventions, not on the original caucus vote.  The election of the actual physical delegates from the precinct caucuses to the county conventions was carried out correctly, just the wrong numbers were reported to the media.

Even if the error had never been caught, it would have been "corrected" by the results of the CD 1 convention on April 9, anyway.

The actual figure is only of interest to a subset of people on this forum, literally nobody else in the world.

I know it would be corrected, but it made it look a bit harder for Bernie to get the nomination as long as it was uncorrected. And the Bernie campaign didn't find out until after the convention.

[Ebsy]

It's literally one (1) delegate when Clinton is ahead by over 200.

[Joe Republic]

It's literally one (1) delegate when Clinton is ahead by over 200.

BUT THERE WAS A CORRUPT CONSPIRACY

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's literally one (1) delegate when Clinton is ahead by over 200.

BUT THERE WAS A CORRUPT CONSPIRACY

Jfern could discover a conspiracy behind the picnic of an orphanage.

[Mr. Morden]

Erc, do the #s in this WaPo article sound plausible to you?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/cruz-likely-to-block-trump-on-a-second-ballot-at-the-gop-convention/2016/04/13/6553e724-00bc-11e6-9d36-33d198ea26c5_story.html

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[Mr. Morden]

This story talks about Cruz's organizational advantage in California, and wonders if Trump is actually going to have a full delegate slate there (or for that matter, Kasich):

https://www.yahoo.com/news/unconventional-no-1-the-gops-veep-problem-183429119.html

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[Erc]

Scathing letter from the three non-Yobs who have been collateral damage in the Canegata-Yob dispute:

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[Erc]

Erc, do the #s in this WaPo article sound plausible to you?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/cruz-likely-to-block-trump-on-a-second-ballot-at-the-gop-convention/2016/04/13/6553e724-00bc-11e6-9d36-33d198ea26c5_story.html

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Within an order of magnitude, sure.

Honestly, it's hard to say.  The numbers sound roughly plausible, but could be higher, potentially.  We'll have to see how the rest of the process plays out.

And again, it should be stressed that the anti-Trump vote is not necessarily pro-Cruz; the Indiana delegation, for example, may end up being surprisingly pro-Kasich.

[Erc]

April 26 Democratic Primaries

Pennsylvania, Delaware, and Maryland qualify as a "regional cluster," and receive a 15% delegate bonus.

Connecticut (D)

Overview
71 Delegates (1.49% of total)
Closed Primary
36 District
12 At-Large
7 PLEO At-Large
16 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 12 and 7 delegates are apportioned based on the statewide primary vote.  The CD delegates are apportioned among the CDs as follows: 8 in CD 1; 7 in CDs 2,3,4,5.

Superdelegates


Clinton (15): Gov. Dannel Malloy, Sen. Chris Murphy, Sen. Richard Blumenthal, Rep. Jim Himes, Rep. John B. Larson, Rep. Joe Courtney, Rep. Rosa DeLauro, Rep. Elizabeth Esty, Chair Dominic Balleto Jr, Nancy Wyman, Vice Chair Nancy Dinardo, John Olsen, Dorothy Mrowka, Michael Cacace, Chris Dodd

Uncommitted (1): Joanne Sullivan

Useful Links
The Green Papers: CT
CT Delegate Selection Plan

Delaware (D)

Overview
31 Delegates (0.65% of total)
Closed Primary
5 At-Large
2 PLEO At-Large
14 by District
10 Superdelegates

Details

5 At-Large and 2 PLEO delegates will be apportioned based on the statewide primary result.  14 delegates will be apportioned based on the results in various regions of Delaware: 2 each for Kent County, Sussex County, and the City of Wilmington, and 8 for the remainder of New Castle County.

Superdelegates

Bloomberg: Clinton 7 - Uncommitted 3

Confirmed Clinton (5): Gov. Jack Markell, Sen. Tom Carper, Sen. Chris Coons, Rep. John Carney, Bob Gilligan

Other (5): Vice President Joe Biden, Chair John Daniello, Vice Chair Lisa Goodman, Karen Valentine (Clinton 2008), Valerie Longhurst

Useful Links
The Green Papers: DE-D
DE Delegate Selection Plan

Maryland (D)

Overview
118 Delegates (2.47% of total)
Closed Primary
21 At-Large
10 PLEO At-Large
64 by CD
23 Superdelegates

Details

The CD delegates are allocated based on the primary vote in each CD: 10 in CD 4; 9 in CDs 5,7; 8 in CDs 3,8; 7 in CDs 2,6; 6 in CD 1. The 21 At-Large and 10 PLEO delegates are allocated proportionally based on statewide primary vote.

Superdelegates

Clinton (16): Sen. Barbara Mikulski, Sen. Ben Cardin, Reps. Steny Hoyer, Donna Edwards, Chris Van Hollen, John Delaney, John Sarbanes, Dutch Ruppersberger, and Elijah Cummings, Bruce Morrison, Karen Pope-Onwukwe, Maria Cordone, Greg Pecoraro, Carol Pensky, Yvette Lewis, Belkis "Bel" Leong-Hong

Sanders (1): Heather Mizeur

Uncommitted (6): Ex-DNC Chair Joe Andrew (Clinton 2008, until May), Chair D. Bruce Poole, Vice Chair Victoria Jackson-Stanley, Janice Griffin, DNC Secretary Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, Glenard S. Middleton Sr

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MD-D
MD Delegate Selection Plan

Pennsylvania (D)

Overview
210 Delegates (4.40% of total)
Closed Primary
42 At-Large
20 PLEO At-Large
127 by CD
21 Superdelegates

Details

The CD delegates are allocated based on the primary vote in each CD: 14 in CD 2; 10 in CD 1; 9 in CDs 13,14; 8 in CD 7; 7 in CDs 6,8,17; 6 in CDs 3,4,11,12,15,18; 6 in CDs 5,9,10,16. The 42 At-Large and 20 PLEO delegates are allocated proportionally based on statewide primary vote.

Superdelegates

Clinton (18): Ex-DNC Chair Ed Rendell, Gov. Tom Wolf, Sen. Bob Casey Jr., Rep. Matt Cartwright, Rep. Chaka Fattah, Chair Marcel Groen, Nancy Patton Mills, Evelyn Rafalko-McNutty, Michael Nutter, Ronald Donatucci, Vice Chair Penny Gerber, Amanda Green Hawkins, Ian Murray, Marian Tasco, Richard Bloomingdale, Sylvia Wilson, Tony Coelho

Uncommitted (3): Reps. Brendan Boyle, Robert Brady, and Michael F. Doyle

Useful Links
The Green Papers: PA-D
PA Delegate Selection Plan

Rhode Island (D)

Overview
33 Delegates (0.69% of total)
Half-Open Primary
6 At-Large
3 PLEO At-Large
15 by CD
9 Superdelegates

Details

The CD delegates are allocated based on the primary vote in each CD: 8 in CD 1; 7 in CD 2. The 6 At-Large and 3 PLEO delegates are allocated proportionally based on statewide primary vote.

Superdelegates

Clinton (9): Gov. Gina Raimondo, Sen. Jack Reed, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, Rep. David Cicilline, Rep. James Langevin, Chair Joseph McNamara, Vice Chair Grace Diaz, Edna Mattson, Frank Montanaro

Useful Links
The Green Papers: RI-D
RI Delegate Selection Plan

[Sorenroy]

So I know that your overview post said that Illinois was updated fairly recently, but why do you have Illinois at 79-77 rather than the 78-78 that 538.com has it? What is the explanation behind that?

[The Other Castro]

This story talks about Cruz's organizational advantage in California, and wonders if Trump is actually going to have a full delegate slate there (or for that matter, Kasich):

https://www.yahoo.com/news/unconventional-no-1-the-gops-veep-problem-183429119.html

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That's pretty big news if true. If Cruz's campaign, with its top notch delegate operation, needed 5 months to fill every slate, I don't see how Trump's campaign can possibly do the same in 2 months (or if they do, they won't possibly be able to extensively vet every single person for loyalty). What happens if Trump wins a district that he doesn't have delegates in?

[Likely Voter]

If you are going to get your act together it is in CA. It is the biggest prize and you have the longest lead time and you have an ability to actually control your delegates. Anyone who gets that wrong doesn't deserve to be the nominee.

[Erc]

I'll have to do a more careful reading of CA law here, but a cursory reading of the CA GOP bylaws seems to indicate this isn't a huge deal.

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According to the Call to Convention, delegates must be elected or selected no later than 45 days before the start of the convention--i.e. June 3.

Interestingly, that puts several states out of compliance (namely, California, New Jersey, Georgia, Idaho, and Oregon).  Note that the other June 7 states are fine, as they pre-select their delegates, and primaries to allocate and bind delegates are allowed through June 11 (second Saturday in June).  Waivers are possible, and they may have been granted to those states.

Regardless, credentials only need to be submitted to the RNC by June 13, so I would say that is the final deadline.  There may be further amendments after that, but only relating to final certification of the results (e.g. one CD flips from Trump to Cruz based on provisional ballots).

EDIT: California law indeed gives that May 7 date.  However, note that the RNC generally gives priority to state party rules over state law (and they are free to do so), so this isn't a huge deal.  As long as Trump has a slate in the districts he wins by June 13, he should be fine.

[Erc]

So I know that your overview post said that Illinois was updated fairly recently, but why do you have Illinois at 79-77 rather than the 78-78 that 538.com has it? What is the explanation behind that?

Results by CD in IL are as of yet incomplete; note that neither the AP nor CNN have called all the delegates.

I initially had a 78-78 split, following The Green Papers.

However, the Sanders campaign recently released their own delegate counts, which showed the 79-77 count.  If the Sanders camp is giving a more favorable result to Clinton that I am, I'm going to go with Sanders' count.

I still disagree with Sanders' count in North Carolina (where I believe he's being too favorable to Clinton) and Nevada (where we disagree on the interpretation of the rules).

[Vosem]

Couldn't the Credentials Committee rule, based on California state law, that any delegates picked after May 7 are ineligible and therefore simply declare their positions vacant? I doubt they would do this unless it was totally necessary, but it seems like a very possible interpretation of the rules.

[Erc]

Couldn't the Credentials Committee rule, based on California state law, that any delegates picked after May 7 are ineligible and therefore simply declare their positions vacant? I doubt they would do this unless it was totally necessary, but it seems like a very possible interpretation of the rules.

Where state laws and state GOP rules differ, precedence is very clearly given to state GOP rules.

The CA GOP rules allow for the filling of incomplete delegations (via the "amended as necessary", above) up until June 13.

If for some reason Trump still misses that deadline, then RNC Rule 18 kicks in.  There is at that point no provision in CA GOP or CA state law to fill vacancies, so we follow Rule 18(c).  At that point, the state Republican party can decide to let Trump fill the rest of the delegation, or can have the State Executive Committee fill the rest of the delegation, or (after July 7) let the remainder of the delegation vote to fill the vacancies.

There may be some room for shenanigans between June 7 and June 13 (if the CA GOP submits a slate with vacancies prior to the final deadline), but apart from that the rules involved are pretty clear.

Honestly, though, it doesn't really matter.  Even there is a vacancy, it will be filled somehow before the convention via the Rule 18 mechanisms, and all of this only affects the delegate selection process, not the delegate allocation and binding process, which is still tied to the primary.  If Trump doesn't have delegates in a district ever, the delegates eventually selected via Rule 18 from that district are still bound to Trump on the first two ballots.  By the time they are unbound, it's the third ballot, by which point Trump has no shot at the nomination anyway.  It could matter for Kasich in the unlikely event he wins, say, San Francisco, but even then he'd get to fill those slots as described above.

[Erc]

Fivethirtyeight has a relatively decent state-by-state breakdown of the remaining states, even if they get Washington's delegate rules wrong.

They currently peg Trump roughly in the 1150s in pledged delegates.  They're a bit too bearish on Trump in a couple of states (Rhode Island, West Virginia, and Washington), but those don't make more than a 10-delegate difference.

Of course, the ultimate conclusion is that this comes down to Indiana and California, but we knew that already.

[Erc]

USA Today (of all newspapers) has a detailed, well-researched article on the Virgin Islands delegate fight, how it ties into the long-standing shady fundraising operations out of the Virgin Islands, and Canegata's longstanding ties with Saul Anuzis.

Honestly, the Virgin Islands fight is looking more and more like an expansion of the continuing Anuzis-Yob battle in the Michigan GOP.

Mother Jones also has a similar interesting piece for those who are somehow not yet Yobbed yout.

[Erc]

Indiana selected its remaining, At-Large delegates on Wednesday, but is not releasing the names of the delegates involved due to the extreme levels of harassment (including death threats!) received by some of the delegates selected over the weekend.

Names will be released in about two weeks, after the delegates have been certified by the RNC (and hopefully some of the furor has died down or been redirected at delegates in other states).

[Erc]

Our glorious leader confirms (to my surprise) that Sanders did indeed clear threshold in CD 3 in MS; he must have gotten lucky with the precinct breakdowns in Hinds and Madison counties.

That makes the total in Mississippi Clinton 31 - Sanders 5.

[Erc]

NBC has recently confirmed that Rubio's delegates in Oklahoma are indeed unbound on the first ballot.

Now may be a good time to go over Rubio's delegates again.

Rubio Certainly Loses Them: (36 delegates)

The delegates he won in Minnesota, Louisiana, and Oklahoma have been released.  If the rules are changed and Rubio does appear on the first ballot, he would get those Oklahoma and Minnesota delegates back, but the Louisiana ones are gone regardless.

In Alabama, Rubio's one delegate is de facto released; a candidate's delegation may vote to release themselves by a vote (two-thirds majority required), so his one delegate is always free to release himself at any time.

In Wyoming, Rubio's one delegate has been released as he is no longer "in the race."

Other States:

New Hampshire is a bit confusing.  State law says that "If a presidential candidate…withdraws as a presidential candidate at any time prior to the convention, his pledged delegates shall be released by the candidate…"  Rubio hasn't officially withdrawn (and neither, to my knowledge, has Jeb Bush), so it would seem they keep their delegates.

However, the pledge form signed by the delegates is a bit weaker. "I pledge myself, if selected as delegate or alternate delegate to said convention, whenever I shall vote, to vote for the nomination of (inserting the name of any person) as the candidate for said party for president so long as he shall be a candidate before said convention."  Whether this means the delegates are released if Rubio (or Bush, or Kasich) do not appear on the first ballot is not 100% clear.  

In Alaska, candidates' delegates are reallocated if they "drop out"; this was initially done to Rubio's delegates after his suspension, but they were returned to him after he requested that he keep them.  The AK GOP rules suggest Rubio's delegates would still be released if he does not "maintain an active campaign," but the AK GOP press release suggests he will keep them regardless; the act of contacting the AK GOP is presumably a sign of an active campaign.


Accordingly, I'm moving Rubio's delegates back to him in Alaska and New Hampshire (he still had his in Nevada).

In Nevada, Rubio would have his delegates released if he discontinues his campaign after the State Convention in May.  As he discontinued his campaign before the State Convention he (and Carson) get to keep their delegates for now.  Rubio would lose them if he were to endorse someone after the State Convention, so keep an eye out for those.

In all other states, Rubio seems to keep his delegates unless he actually withdraws or releases his delegates.

[Erc]

To clear up the confusion in New Hampshire, I contacted the New Hampshire GOP, and they clarified that delegates allocated to candidates that do not appear on the first ballot at the RNC are not still bound to vote for them on the first ballot.