The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Lief 🗽]

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But if a candidate gets more than 50% in a CD, won't they round up to two delegates, with second place getting 1 delegate?

[Lief 🗽]

Erc, if I'm reading the rules in LA right, if Rubio falls below 16.67% in a CD (which is possible based on the polls released in the past 24 hours), he should get 0 delegates, right? And in that case, would the third delegate be unbound in the same way state delegates are?

[Lief 🗽]

Erc, I think Green Papers is wrong about Michigan delegate allocation. Check out the MI GOP rules for delegate allocation: http://www.migop.org/assets/files/Rules_for_the_Selection_of_Delegates_and_Alternates.pdf

It looks like, at least according to the party rules, MI is WTA if anyone gets >50%; otherwise, each CD is WTA (for three delegates each) and the remaining delegates are proportional based on a 15% threshold. (see page 17)

[Lief 🗽]

As discussed above, a clever play by the Sanders camp in Mills County moved a delegate from Clinton and Sanders to Uncommitted and O'Malley (who had no initial representation).  Who actually chose the Uncommitted and O'Malley delegates is a different question, of course.

Holy crap that's so sneaky. So it's probably 704-702.

[Lief 🗽]

Erc, Alaska GOP actually gave 2 to Cruz and 3 to Trump, so it's a tie now: http://www.alaskagop.org/delegate_count_recalculated_after_rubio_suspends_flpfzejqkhsu9ueskitjoa

[Lief 🗽]

This article is behind a paywall, but it looks like Ted Cruz won the uncommitted delegates in Louisiana?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/ted-cruz-gains-in-louisiana-after-loss-there-to-donald-trump-1458861959

[Lief 🗽]

Can't the pledged to Trump but secretly supporting Cruz delegates just refuse to vote when their state is called on the first ballot? No need to boycott or not attend.

[Lief 🗽]

Actually, it seems Cruz had a rare loss in Michigan.

In terms of committee assignments, it seems Trump and Kasich prevented an attempt by Cruz to just take everything over, and themselves locked Cruz supporters out.  It doesn't seem like this extended to delegates, where at least on the At-Large level I believe each candidate got what they wanted.

In particular, and hilariously, this means Chuck Yob is now on the Credentials Committee that will be deciding the fate of his son's contested delegation from the Virgin Islands.

This all but affirms my prediction that the 3 from the Yob coalition, if they hold their delegate spots, will side with Trump.

You do know that Chuck Yob is a Kasich delegate and his son worked for the Rand Paul campaign, right? (Other candidates John Yob has worked for -- including McCain's presidential campaign, Santorum's presidential campaign, and Mark Neumann's 2012 Senate campaign -- have pretty much uniformly backed the #Never_trump camp). There's also the fact that the man who wrote the book on contested conventions (literally) might be disinclined to back someone who pooh-poohs the very idea and suggests the person who wins the most primary votes should automatically become candidate.

I think, considering his father and Mark Neumann are both Kasich supporters, John Yob is likeliest to be a quiet Kasich supporter than anything else. But it's very difficult to imagine him supporting _trump.

Yeah but this is all before TRUMP bribes him.

[Lief 🗽]

What do you mean that the at large Puerto Rico delegates are decided by the district delegates?

[Lief 🗽]

Four out of five of Rubio's delegates say that they are firmly Uncommitted; the fifth, Stephanie Berault, seems to lean Cruz.

Looks like four out of five Rubio delegates just won themselves an all expenses paid trip to Trump International Beach Resort in sunny Miami!

[Lief 🗽]

How many delegates would Trump have to win to ensure that the majority would actually be pro-Trump delegates? 1400? 1500?