ARG-NH: Trump 27, Kasich 20, Rubio 10

[Lief 🗽]

NH GOP primary:

Trump 27%
Kasich 20%
Rubio 10%
Christie 9%
Cruz 9%
Bush 8%

[RI]

[yankeesfan]

This is insane.   I don't understand this at all. 

What is happening in the world?  This feels like Shutter Island.

[Volrath50]

As much as I don't trust ARG, wouldn't this be sort of a worst case scenario for the GOP establishment? Kasich crushing Rubio for second in NH would sort of make him the "establishment candidate" by default. However, Kasich seems to be extraordinarily unpopular among GOP primary voters outside of NH. He probably has less of a chance of beating Trump than almost any other "establishment" candidate.

[RI]

Among "definite" voters:

Trump 24
Kasich 22
Rubio 11
Christie 10
Cruz 9
Bush 7
Paul 5

[mds32]

Among "definite" voters:

Trump 24
Kasich 22
Rubio 11
Christie 10
Cruz 9
Bush 7
Paul 5

Wow

[The Other Castro]

What is going on...

[Torie]

Wow!

[yankeesfan]

As much as I don't trust ARG, wouldn't this be sort of a worst case scenario for the GOP establishment? Kasich crushing Rubio for second in NH would sort of make him the "establishment candidate" by default. However, Kasich seems to be extraordinarily unpopular among GOP primary voters outside of NH. He probably has less of a chance of beating Trump than almost any other "establishment" candidate.

If Cruz wins Iowa and Kasich wins NH (or comes in a strong second place), we're looking at a decent scenario for the GOP establishment

[RI]

This is the first poll since June to show a non-Trump candidate at 20% or more in NH.

[Holmes]

Not sure what's funnier, people believing an ARG poll or people believing an Overtime poll.

[Slow Learner]

Toss this in the lakes of fire.

[This account no longer in use.]

RIP Kasich

[Lyin' Steve]

Wonder how much Kasich is paying ARG
There's absolutely no reason for him to be surging now.  He's been out of the media spotlight entirely, said nothing at the debate, and other candidates have swooped into NH to steal his campout thunder.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trolololol!!!

I nominate this for the worst poll of this cycle. ARG is the polling equivalent of comic relief.

[Zanas]

Both previous ARG polls showed Kasich 4-5 points ahead of his polling average in other pollsters. So, it could be that Kasich is really polling at 15-16, which is not that far-fetched compared to the 12 or 14 he's had in other polls.

Or maybe it's just a sh**tty outlier by a sh**tty pollster. I don't know, what's Kasich up to recently in NH radio and TV ? Could it explain this a bit ?

Anyway, this keeps getting funnier and funnier.

[Skye]

Okay? These are some numbers I have trouble believing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's be hard to beat Trump in NH, with his appeal to Northeasternerrs, but this was Christie's best state, not Kasich's.

[President Johnson]

Good to see that Kasich is the top establishment guy there now.

[JonathanSwift]

[/]

Well, it looks like we might have found our Final Four.

[weixiaobao]

O_____O

wow....

[This account no longer in use.]

CAN'T DEFACE THE KASE.

[Adam Griffin]

In 2012, Santorum was a joke candidate, camped out in IA, and had the most face-to-face meetings and events in IA, in some cases literally earning votes one-by-one. IA has 3.1 million people. In the end, Santorum surged and won.

In 2016, Kasich is a joke candidate, has camped out in NH, and has had the most face-to-face meetings and events in NH, in some cases literally earning votes one-by-one. NH has 1.3 million people. Do you really think the one remaining variable required to complete the comparison is that outlandish or impossible?

ARG's garbage, though - we'll see.

[Mister Mets]

I like Kasich, so I'm okay with this.