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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Process
  Polling (Moderator: muon2)
  The pollsters
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Author Topic: The pollsters  (Read 1844 times)
DavidB.
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« on: January 19, 2016, 09:24:00 pm »

I want to follow the polls more closely during the primary season, yet I'm in the dark when it comes to the question which pollsters to trust. Can somebody tell me which ones are generally better and which ones produce "junk polls"?
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weixiaobao
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« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2016, 09:36:07 pm »

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

So for internet polls

SurveyMonkey probably the best with high reputation, then YouGov.

Reuters, Morning Consult, and Zogby are really bad one way or another.  Though Morning consult came out with the theory that their numbers are accurate because Trump supporters aren't as likely to claim that they are Trump supporters on phone or in person.

I heard ARG is bad.  There are polls that associated internally with campaign (like I saw one from Christie campaign) so know where your source is from.  However I still trust them until if other polls show otherwise.

Basswood for example is from Club for Growth who is extremely anti Trump.  They was the first to said Trump lost Iowa to Carson.  I didn't believe them until all other polls came out later that confirmed the same thing.

And Overtime politics is a group? (not even sure if it is a business) that is like a tad more than a month old.  The jury is out on them for me.  But for most, they aren't as trustworthy.
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weixiaobao
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« Reply #2 on: January 19, 2016, 09:38:12 pm »

OH I forgot Gravis.  the problem with Gravis is that they polled usually a date after the debate.  And that swing wildly in results.  I don't trust them as well as other pollster.

To Rand Paul supporters though.  All polls are push polls unless Paul do well.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #3 on: January 19, 2016, 09:43:43 pm »

Both of these are tools that link to the PDFs for the polls they use. They also weight their polls using several different methods, one of which is accuracy. For 538 you just have to scroll down a little to get to the polls, but besides that they are a good place to start (besides going into the polls PDFs and looking through those for yourself).

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster
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cxs018
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« Reply #4 on: January 19, 2016, 09:48:09 pm »

In general, ARG, Gravis, and Overtime are the 'unholy trinity' of polling.
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weixiaobao
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« Reply #5 on: January 19, 2016, 09:50:42 pm »

Sorenroy provide the huffpollster link.  You can use them to remove internet pollsters and suspicious pollster that you don't like.  Huffpollster allow you to modify for trend.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #6 on: January 19, 2016, 09:54:29 pm »

In addition to what others have said, PPP has a decent pro-Hillary house effect. I wouldn't be surprised if they're bribed to bump her up some.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #7 on: January 19, 2016, 09:59:45 pm »

Sorenroy provide the huffpollster link.  You can use them to remove internet pollsters and suspicious pollster that you don't like.  Huffpollster allow you to modify for trend.

It also allows you to select a single pollster and see their trend line and how far away from the average it is. That allows you to see how much of a swing they might have, or how far the over/under poll a specific person (some polls show Trump far lower/higher than others for example).
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Ebsy
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« Reply #8 on: January 19, 2016, 10:05:38 pm »

In addition to what others have said, PPP has a decent pro-Hillary house effect. I wouldn't be surprised if they're bribed to bump her up some.
Citation needed.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #9 on: January 19, 2016, 10:06:59 pm »

Gravis is the creme de la creme, friend.  Go no-where else for polls.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #10 on: January 19, 2016, 10:25:25 pm »

Thanks for your replies, guys! Really helpful Smiley
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Hillary pays minimum wage
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« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2016, 03:02:10 am »

Rasmussen, PPP, Mason-Dixon, and I'm not sure if Zogby still exists or not. I prefer Mason-Dixon.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #12 on: January 31, 2016, 09:46:05 pm »

Gravis is very helpful. It combines turnout for each candidate's base(a random number 1-100 picked by a first grader)'s voter turnout times the average of the other results, and proceeds to roll a die six times to decide what random numbers to add/subtract.
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