FL-Florida Atlantic University:D: Clinton 62% Sanders 26%; R: Trump 48% Cruz 16%

[Mr. Morden]

Florida Atlantic University poll of Florida:

https://cmgpbppostonpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2016/01/in-a-new-florida-atlantic-university-poll.pdf

Dems

Clinton 62%
Sanders 26%
O’Malley 4%

GOP

Trump 48%
Cruz 16%
Rubio 11%
Bush 10%
Carson 3%
Paul 3%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 3%
Kasich 2%
Fiorina 1%
Gilmore 0%

They included Gilmore in the poll, but not Santorum?

[Lief 🗽]

Two beautiful polls!!

[Türkisblau]

Trump has 48% while running against two favorite sons? It's over, folks.

[mds32]

1. Throw it in the garbage.
2. I'll believe it if Trump wins Iowa, NH, and SC. Since there are 15 or so other states that go before Florida as I have said with all other polls it is just noise.

[Eraserhead]

Yeah, Florida still sucks for Bernie.

Also lol @ Trump obliterating everyone.

[weixiaobao]

1. Throw it in the garbage.
2. I'll believe it if Trump wins Iowa, NH, and SC. Since there are 15 or so other states that go before Florida as I have said with all other polls it is just noise.

Why do you even bother reading and commenting on polls that aren't Iowa, NH, and SC??
Or do you just waiting to comment/believe in polls that aren't IA, NH, SC but with a frontrunner other than Trump?

[EliteLX]

Not doubting Trump has a powerful lead in Florida right now.

Am doubting his greatest lead nationwide of all time is in Florida right now, of all places.

[Mr. Morden]

[RI]

New Poll: Florida President by Florida Atlantic University on 2016-01-18

Summary:

Trump:	48%
Cruz:	16%
Rubio:	11%
Bush:	10%
Other:	14%
Undecided:	1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[weixiaobao]

ARG NH poll #s for Trump is usually lower than other NH polls but the ARG post debate poll still show Trump go up 2 points.  And here we have Trump go up in FL.  I have a feeling Trump had go up in the polls nationally again. 

[bigedlb]

PDF

[This account no longer in use.]

Why the hell did they ask people if they had Muslim friends?

[bigedlb]

Also:
Trump 47 Hillary 44
Trump 47 Bernie 42
Bush 45 Hillary 42
Rubio 46 Hillary 46
Rubio 47 Bernie 42
Hillary 47 Cruz 42
Cruz 43 Bernie 43

[Mr. Morden]

OP has been updated to include the full #s.

[This account no longer in use.]

I feel like this is a junk poll. They had a third of African-Americans supporting Rand Paul last time.

[Zanas]

Seriously, this must be one of the least pertinent ways of representing this set of data through time.

[Skye]

Those are some crazy numbers for Trump.

[Sorenroy]

I feel like this is a junk poll. They had a third of African-Americans supporting Rand Paul last time.

To be fair, African-Americans make up 1% or less of the Republican base in Florida. With such a small sample size, their can be quite a large fluctuation.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/fl/

[Ebsy]

I feel like this is a junk poll. They had a third of African-Americans supporting Rand Paul last time.

To be fair, African-Americans make up 1% or less of the Republican base in Florida. With such a small sample size, their can be quite a large fluctuation.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/fl/

Yeah, I would say that small sample size is often the biggest culprit when seeing wacky results in demographic crosstabs in the Republican primary. When the samples are so small, it is important not to draw any conclusions from the data.

[This account no longer in use.]

I feel like this is a junk poll. They had a third of African-Americans supporting Rand Paul last time.

To be fair, African-Americans make up 1% or less of the Republican base in Florida. With such a small sample size, their can be quite a large fluctuation.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/fl/

Yeah, I would say that small sample size is often the biggest culprit when seeing wacky results in demographic crosstabs in the Republican primary. When the samples are so small, it is important not to draw any conclusions from the data.

Problem is, Rand Paul didn't have a clean 33.33333% of African-Americans. He didn't have a clean 30%. He didn't even have a clean 35%. He had 31.6%. That doesn't sound like any fraction I know. I calculated it, and it came out to 79 out of 250. Clearly, that poll implies that there were 79 African-American Republicans in Florida voting for Rand Paul, and all 79 switched by the next poll.

[Ebsy]

I mean, their sample for this poll was only 386 Likely Republican Primary voters, so I doubt the African American sample was anywhere near 250.

[Mr. Morden]

I feel like this is a junk poll. They had a third of African-Americans supporting Rand Paul last time.

To be fair, African-Americans make up 1% or less of the Republican base in Florida. With such a small sample size, their can be quite a large fluctuation.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/fl/

Yeah, I would say that small sample size is often the biggest culprit when seeing wacky results in demographic crosstabs in the Republican primary. When the samples are so small, it is important not to draw any conclusions from the data.

Problem is, Rand Paul didn't have a clean 33.33333% of African-Americans. He didn't have a clean 30%. He didn't even have a clean 35%. He had 31.6%. That doesn't sound like any fraction I know. I calculated it, and it came out to 79 out of 250. Clearly, that poll implies that there were 79 African-American Republicans in Florida voting for Rand Paul, and all 79 switched by the next poll.

With demographic weighting, not every response counts the same.  You could have three respondents, and they'd all be weighted slightly differently, so 31.6% isn't a particularly odd number.

[Angel of Death]

Poll numbers of Florida at this point are almost completely useless, as half the country will already have had their primary or caucus by the time it's this state's turn.

[Mike Thick]

Jesus...

These numbers seem sketchy, but if Trump can come within striking distance of a majority in huge field with two favorite sons... this election is over.

[Sir Mohamed]

I dount this is a reliable poll, the sample size of 386 is relatively small.