IA-Monmouth/KBUR: D: Clinton 48% Sanders 39%; R: Cruz 27% Trump 25% Carson 11%

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

These numbers don't make sense

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Changes vs. December poll.

Clinton -6
Sanders +6

Remember that these are the folks that had Clinton leading by 41 points here not long ago. I don't think they understand how to poll a caucus.

Yeah there is no plausible way that Clinton is approaching 50% in Iowa...

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Monmouth/KBUR poll of Iowa, conducted Jan. 18-19:

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/IowaDemCaucusPollJan2016.pdf
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/IowaGOPCaucusPollJan2016.pdf

Dems

Clinton 48%
Sanders 39%
O’Malley 7%

GOP

Cruz 27%
Trump 25%
Carson 11%
Rubio 9%
Bush 7%
Christie 4%
Huckabee 4%
Fiorina 3%
Kasich 3%
Paul 3%
Gilmore 1%
Santorum 1%

The caucus race is certainly a barn-burner now.

I think the Republican side will be very close almost at Romney-Santorum level close this year. I think the Democratic side will be called first before the Republican side is

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Clinton +9 and leading in the two most populous potions of the state. Clinton leading with every age group above 35. Those looks to be strong numbers for her.

Bernie's support concentrated in the least populous region of the state according to the cross-tabs.

Take it with a grain of salt, last time they had her at almost 60% when every other major poll had Bernie Sanders and Clinton very close to each other