IA-Emerson College: Trump and Clinton lead

[HillOfANight]

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_542e7f5df4e14162851de1c77b0df5f4.pdf
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_6f6d0c66f9ec4beebc1e88ca4f41f4c9.xlsx?dn=ECPS%20iowa_.xlsx
https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/690255085973078016?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Clinton 52%
Sanders at 43%

Trump 33%
Ted Cruz at 23%
Marco Rubio 14%
Ben Carson 9%
 
Crosstabs in the spreadsheet. Bernie gets 68% of men, Hillary gets 63% of women. Hillary is winning in CD2 (52-42) and dominating CD3 (65-31), the southern congressional districts, while Bernie edges in CD1 (50-43) and CD4 (53-42)

[Eraserhead]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's a YUGE day for sh**tty college polls.

[The Other Castro]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's a YUGE day for sh**tty college polls.

Well at this rate Sanders should have an 8 point lead in Iowa today.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's a YUGE day for sh**tty college polls.

Cruz, Trump, and Rubio all have YUGE negative favorables?  And Hillary YUGE negatives with Dems?  Who the  were these people polling?

[Lief 🗽]

BEAUTIFUL POLLS!!!

[President Johnson]

The Donald up ten points in Iowa?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Are all the Trump insults toward Cruz really having that big of an effect or is this a combination of Sarah Palin and/or the Iowa Governor?

[Ljube]

Are all the Trump insults toward Cruz really having that big of an effect or is this a combination of Sarah Palin and/or the Iowa Governor?

It's the insults.

[yankeesfan]

Junk poll.  It looks like this is their first time surveying Iowa this cycle.

[Mike Thick]

I'm skeptical that he could open up such a yuge lead so quickly, which leads me to question the accuracy of this poll. However, he's TRUMP. Anything is possible.

[RI]

New Poll: Iowa President by Emerson College on 2016-01-18

Summary:

Trump:	33%
Cruz:	23%
Rubio:	14%
Carson:	9%
Other:	20%
Undecided:	1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm skeptical that he could open up such a yuge lead so quickly, which leads me to question the accuracy of this poll. However, he's TRUMP. Anything is possible.

The new CNN poll apparently is agreeing with an 11-point Trump lead and an 8-point Sanders lead.

[RFayette]

This is a terrible, terrible poll result.  As bad as it gets. 

[Mike Thick]

I'm skeptical that he could open up such a yuge lead so quickly, which leads me to question the accuracy of this poll. However, he's TRUMP. Anything is possible.

The new CNN poll apparently is agreeing with an 11-point Trump lead and an 8-point Sanders lead.

I posted that just before the CNN poll came out. Now, I agree completely.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Not bad for Bernie considering their house effect. Their national poll in December had Hillary up 39 and their national poll in October had Hillary up 48.

[Bismarck]

One interesting thing in this poll that makes me skeptical is that Trump is leading Cruz in all districts except 3. So Cruz wins the Des Moines district but loses in Steve King's district? That seems odd.

[cinyc]

One interesting thing in this poll that makes me skeptical is that Trump is leading Cruz in all districts except 3. So Cruz wins the Des Moines district but loses in Steve King's district? That seems odd.

The poll is of 271 likely caucus goers.  Assuming caucus goers were uniformly spread among CDs, that would be 68 persons per CD.  The MoE in a poll of 68 people is about 12%.  In other words, the CD subsamples are junk.