Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 06, 2019, 01:05:44 pm
News: 2020 U.S. Senate Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
  CNN - Trump and Sanders lead IA
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print
Author Topic: CNN - Trump and Sanders lead IA  (Read 5225 times)
dfwlibertylover
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,319
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: January 21, 2016, 04:07:59 pm »

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/21/politics/iowa-poll-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-donald-trump-ted-cruz/index.html

The new CNN poll finds Trump up by 11, Sanders up by 8 in Iowa
Logged
Ted Bessell
tedbessell
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,532


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: January 21, 2016, 04:11:45 pm »

This is incredible. Cruz is completely imploding.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,947
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: January 21, 2016, 04:12:36 pm »

Sanders surge and Republican nominee Trump confirmed!
Logged
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
sjkqw
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,772
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: January 21, 2016, 04:12:59 pm »

Are the Cruz voters actually flocking to Trump?? I was seriously expecting either Rubio or Carson or maybe even Huck to be the Final Boss here, but geez, I think Trump already took down the last of the serious competition. No one is rising to replace Cruz.
Logged
Dr. RI
realisticidealist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,720
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -0.39, S: 4.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: January 21, 2016, 04:13:04 pm »

New Poll: Iowa President by CNN/ORC on 2016-01-20

Summary:
Trump:
37%
Cruz:
26%
Rubio:
14%
Carson:
6%
Other:
13%
Undecided:
4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Logged
EliteLX
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 959
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.64, S: 0.85

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: January 21, 2016, 04:13:05 pm »

If this poll is anywhere even near correct...

your 2016 Republican Presidential Nominee is Donald J. Trump. Congrats Lief, you have won.
Logged
/
darthebearnc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,376
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: January 21, 2016, 04:13:08 pm »

yay! Smiley

#competitiveiniowa
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,310
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: January 21, 2016, 04:13:18 pm »


On this poll it's slightly more a TRUMP surge than a Cruz implosion.
Logged
Ted Bessell
tedbessell
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,532


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: January 21, 2016, 04:14:17 pm »


On this poll it's slightly more a TRUMP surge than a Cruz implosion.

True. This, though, means that two consecutive polls have showed Trump with double-digit leads that he opened up in a matter of days.
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,388
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: January 21, 2016, 04:15:22 pm »

It maybe happening again to Clinton, Bernie winning Iowa, just like Obama did
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,334
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: January 21, 2016, 04:16:14 pm »

What a nice poll.
Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,768
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: January 21, 2016, 04:16:32 pm »

So Iowa may be anywhere from +10 Clinton to +10 Sanders. Good to know.
Logged
RFayette
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,976
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: January 21, 2016, 04:17:35 pm »

Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,947
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: January 21, 2016, 04:17:43 pm »

The answer was so simple and staring at me the whole time, but I just couldn't see it. It looks like Trump is now more likely than not to be the next Republican nominee for President.
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,310
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: January 21, 2016, 04:18:01 pm »

It maybe happening again to Clinton, Bernie winning Iowa, just like Obama did


What really hurt her that time was coming in third behind John Edwards.
Logged
Ted Bessell
tedbessell
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,532


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: January 21, 2016, 04:18:54 pm »

The answer was so simple and staring at me the whole time, but I just couldn't see it. It looks like Trump is now more likely than not to be the next Republican nominee for President.
Logged
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
sjkqw
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,772
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: January 21, 2016, 04:20:33 pm »

EliteLX and Nate Silver heeling in the same day! We have overcome our establishment oppressors! A glorious day in the history of the Republican Party, right next to the election of Lincoln.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,947
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: January 21, 2016, 04:21:11 pm »

Thank you darththebearnc for reminding me of this, apparently I am psychic:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's a YUGE day for sh**tty college polls.

Well at this rate Sanders should have an 8 point lead in Iowa today.
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,852


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: January 21, 2016, 04:21:52 pm »


On this poll it's slightly more a TRUMP surge than a Cruz implosion.

True. This, though, means that two consecutive polls have showed Trump with double-digit leads that he opened up in a matter of days.

Trump's lead actually shrunk in the CNN/ORC Poll from last November/December.  He was up 13 then; he's up 11 now.  It's largely a function of Carson voters defecting from him to Cruz in greater numbers than Trump.

The trends:

Trump 37% (+4)
Cruz 26% (+6)
Rubio 14% (+4)
Carson 6% (-10)
Bush 3% (-1)
Huckabee 3% (+1)
Paul 2% (-1)
Christie 1% (-1)
Fiorina 1% (-2)
Kasich 1% (+0)
Santorum 1% (+0)
Gilmore <1% (+0)
No Opinion 4% (+3)

On the Democratic side:
Sanders 51% (+15)
Clinton 43% (-11)
O'Malley 4% (+0)
Someone else <1% (-2)
None 1% (+<1%)
No Opinion 1% (-2)
Logged
Ted Bessell
tedbessell
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,532


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: January 21, 2016, 04:25:03 pm »


On this poll it's slightly more a TRUMP surge than a Cruz implosion.

True. This, though, means that two consecutive polls have showed Trump with double-digit leads that he opened up in a matter of days.

Trump's lead actually shrunk in the CNN/ORC Poll from last November/December.  He was up 13 then; he's up 11 now.  It's largely a function of Carson voters defecting from him to Cruz in greater numbers than Trump.

The trends:

Trump 37% (+4)
Cruz 26% (+6)
Rubio 14% (+4)
Carson 6% (-10)
Bush 3% (-1)
Huckabee 3% (+1)
Paul 2% (-1)
Christie 1% (-1)
Fiorina 1% (-2)
Kasich 1% (+0)
Santorum 1% (+0)
Gilmore <1% (+0)
No Opinion 4% (+3)

On the Democratic side:
Sanders 51% (+15)
Clinton 43% (-11)
O'Malley 4% (+0)
Someone else <1% (-2)
None 1% (+<1%)
No Opinion 1% (-2)

Since November/December, we had the Cruz surge where he led in Iowa. Now, Trump is. So, while his lead has decreased since then, it's increased drastically in the past few days.
Logged
Dr. RI
realisticidealist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,720
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -0.39, S: 4.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: January 21, 2016, 04:26:54 pm »
« Edited: January 21, 2016, 04:32:23 pm by realisticidealist »

Nate Silver's already attacking this poll on Twitter for being too loose.
Logged
Deranged California Suburbanite
Fubart Solman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,282
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: January 21, 2016, 04:31:49 pm »

So Iowa may be anywhere from +10 Clinton to +10 Sanders. Good to know.

I don't always agree with you, but here I do. No idea who's winning in Iowa.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,947
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: January 21, 2016, 04:31:54 pm »

Nate Silver's attacking this poll for being too loose on Twitter.

He's not attacking it for being loose, he's just noting it's looseness. He even said "there are sometimes reasons to prefer looser screens. It can be hard to predict who will vote. Also, self-selection in who responds to poll."
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,821
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: January 21, 2016, 04:33:42 pm »

We'll see, I suppose.
Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,768
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: January 21, 2016, 04:34:02 pm »

So Iowa may be anywhere from +10 Clinton to +10 Sanders. Good to know.

I don't always agree with you, but here I do. No idea who's winning in Iowa.

It's a generic answer but it'll really depend on who brings out their supporters. Clinton is crushing it among those who are regular caucus goers, and Sanders is among those who aren't, so he definitely has the steeper hill to climb.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC