CNN - Trump and Sanders lead IA

[Terry the Fat Shark]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/21/politics/iowa-poll-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-donald-trump-ted-cruz/index.html

The new CNN poll finds Trump up by 11, Sanders up by 8 in Iowa

[Mike Thick]

This is incredible. Cruz is completely imploding.

[The Other Castro]

Sanders surge and Republican nominee Trump confirmed!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Are the Cruz voters actually flocking to Trump?? I was seriously expecting either Rubio or Carson or maybe even Huck to be the Final Boss here, but geez, I think Trump already took down the last of the serious competition. No one is rising to replace Cruz.

[RI]

New Poll: Iowa President by CNN/ORC on 2016-01-20

Summary:

Trump:	37%
Cruz:	26%
Rubio:	14%
Carson:	6%
Other:	13%
Undecided:	4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[EliteLX]

If this poll is anywhere even near correct...

your 2016 Republican Presidential Nominee is Donald J. Trump. Congrats Lief, you have won.

[/]

yay!

#competitiveiniowa

[Phony Moderate]

This is incredible. Cruz is completely imploding.

On this poll it's slightly more a TRUMP surge than a Cruz implosion.

[Mike Thick]

This is incredible. Cruz is completely imploding.

On this poll it's slightly more a TRUMP surge than a Cruz implosion.

True. This, though, means that two consecutive polls have showed Trump with double-digit leads that he opened up in a matter of days.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It maybe happening again to Clinton, Bernie winning Iowa, just like Obama did

[Gass3268]

What a nice poll.

[Holmes]

So Iowa may be anywhere from +10 Clinton to +10 Sanders. Good to know.

[RFayette]

[The Other Castro]

The answer was so simple and staring at me the whole time, but I just couldn't see it. It looks like Trump is now more likely than not to be the next Republican nominee for President.

[Phony Moderate]

It maybe happening again to Clinton, Bernie winning Iowa, just like Obama did

What really hurt her that time was coming in third behind John Edwards.

[Mike Thick]

The answer was so simple and staring at me the whole time, but I just couldn't see it. It looks like Trump is now more likely than not to be the next Republican nominee for President.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

EliteLX and Nate Silver heeling in the same day! We have overcome our establishment oppressors! A glorious day in the history of the Republican Party, right next to the election of Lincoln.

[The Other Castro]

Thank you darththebearnc for reminding me of this, apparently I am psychic:

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It's a YUGE day for sh**tty college polls.

Well at this rate Sanders should have an 8 point lead in Iowa today.

[cinyc]

This is incredible. Cruz is completely imploding.

On this poll it's slightly more a TRUMP surge than a Cruz implosion.

True. This, though, means that two consecutive polls have showed Trump with double-digit leads that he opened up in a matter of days.

Trump's lead actually shrunk in the CNN/ORC Poll from last November/December.  He was up 13 then; he's up 11 now.  It's largely a function of Carson voters defecting from him to Cruz in greater numbers than Trump.

The trends:

Trump 37% (+4)
Cruz 26% (+6)
Rubio 14% (+4)
Carson 6% (-10)
Bush 3% (-1)
Huckabee 3% (+1)
Paul 2% (-1)
Christie 1% (-1)
Fiorina 1% (-2)
Kasich 1% (+0)
Santorum 1% (+0)
Gilmore <1% (+0)
No Opinion 4% (+3)

On the Democratic side:
Sanders 51% (+15)
Clinton 43% (-11)
O'Malley 4% (+0)
Someone else <1% (-2)
None 1% (+<1%)
No Opinion 1% (-2)

[Mike Thick]

This is incredible. Cruz is completely imploding.

On this poll it's slightly more a TRUMP surge than a Cruz implosion.

True. This, though, means that two consecutive polls have showed Trump with double-digit leads that he opened up in a matter of days.

Trump's lead actually shrunk in the CNN/ORC Poll from last November/December.  He was up 13 then; he's up 11 now.  It's largely a function of Carson voters defecting from him to Cruz in greater numbers than Trump.

The trends:

Trump 37% (+4)
Cruz 26% (+6)
Rubio 14% (+4)
Carson 6% (-10)
Bush 3% (-1)
Huckabee 3% (+1)
Paul 2% (-1)
Christie 1% (-1)
Fiorina 1% (-2)
Kasich 1% (+0)
Santorum 1% (+0)
Gilmore <1% (+0)
No Opinion 4% (+3)

On the Democratic side:
Sanders 51% (+15)
Clinton 43% (-11)
O'Malley 4% (+0)
Someone else <1% (-2)
None 1% (+<1%)
No Opinion 1% (-2)

Since November/December, we had the Cruz surge where he led in Iowa. Now, Trump is. So, while his lead has decreased since then, it's increased drastically in the past few days.

[RI]

Nate Silver's already attacking this poll on Twitter for being too loose.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

So Iowa may be anywhere from +10 Clinton to +10 Sanders. Good to know.

I don't always agree with you, but here I do. No idea who's winning in Iowa.

[The Other Castro]

Nate Silver's attacking this poll for being too loose on Twitter.

He's not attacking it for being loose, he's just noting it's looseness. He even said "there are sometimes reasons to prefer looser screens. It can be hard to predict who will vote. Also, self-selection in who responds to poll."

[Ebsy]

We'll see, I suppose.

[Holmes]

So Iowa may be anywhere from +10 Clinton to +10 Sanders. Good to know.

I don't always agree with you, but here I do. No idea who's winning in Iowa.

It's a generic answer but it'll really depend on who brings out their supporters. Clinton is crushing it among those who are regular caucus goers, and Sanders is among those who aren't, so he definitely has the steeper hill to climb.