CNN - Trump and Sanders lead IA

[Mike Thick]

This is incredible. Cruz is completely imploding.

[Mike Thick]

This is incredible. Cruz is completely imploding.

On this poll it's slightly more a TRUMP surge than a Cruz implosion.

True. This, though, means that two consecutive polls have showed Trump with double-digit leads that he opened up in a matter of days.

[Mike Thick]

The answer was so simple and staring at me the whole time, but I just couldn't see it. It looks like Trump is now more likely than not to be the next Republican nominee for President.

[Mike Thick]

This is incredible. Cruz is completely imploding.

On this poll it's slightly more a TRUMP surge than a Cruz implosion.

True. This, though, means that two consecutive polls have showed Trump with double-digit leads that he opened up in a matter of days.

Trump's lead actually shrunk in the CNN/ORC Poll from last November/December.  He was up 13 then; he's up 11 now.  It's largely a function of Carson voters defecting from him to Cruz in greater numbers than Trump.

The trends:

Trump 37% (+4)
Cruz 26% (+6)
Rubio 14% (+4)
Carson 6% (-10)
Bush 3% (-1)
Huckabee 3% (+1)
Paul 2% (-1)
Christie 1% (-1)
Fiorina 1% (-2)
Kasich 1% (+0)
Santorum 1% (+0)
Gilmore <1% (+0)
No Opinion 4% (+3)

On the Democratic side:
Sanders 51% (+15)
Clinton 43% (-11)
O'Malley 4% (+0)
Someone else <1% (-2)
None 1% (+<1%)
No Opinion 1% (-2)

Since November/December, we had the Cruz surge where he led in Iowa. Now, Trump is. So, while his lead has decreased since then, it's increased drastically in the past few days.

[Mike Thick]

Since November/December, we had the Cruz surge where he led in Iowa. Now, Trump is. So, while his lead has decreased since then, it's increased drastically in the past few days.

That depends on which Iowa poll released today you believe.  Some show the race still close.  Others show Trump with a double-digit lead.  It's too soon to tell, really, though at the surface, Cruz has had a bad week so far and Trump has generally had a good week (other than the 2 Corinthians thing).

True, and

that Cruz is leading. However, given the events that you mentioned I'm inclined to believe the pro-Trump results.

[Mike Thick]

CNN is calling it "the makings of a political avalanche" for Trump. I'm increasingly inclined to believe them.