Japan 2016 - July 10
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  Japan 2016 - July 10
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Author Topic: Japan 2016 - July 10  (Read 44425 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #425 on: July 10, 2016, 08:22:09 AM »

For 大分(Ōita) with 39% in it is LDP 48.0% DP 46.6% -> is much closer now
For 愛媛(Ehime) 10% in it is LDP 48.6% Ind (DP) 48.4%
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jaichind
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« Reply #426 on: July 10, 2016, 08:23:35 AM »

NHK calls 福島(Fukushima)  for DP.  LDP is ahead 49.4% to 48.4% but NHK must know what it is doing. This is a reversal of NHK exit poll.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #427 on: July 10, 2016, 08:24:37 AM »

NHK calls 福島(Fukushima)  for DP.  LDP is ahead 49.4% to 48.4% but NHK must know what it is doing. This is a reversal of NHK exit poll.

As the last election was in 2010 (before the tsunami) could that have a bearing on this result?
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jaichind
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« Reply #428 on: July 10, 2016, 08:29:54 AM »

NHK calls 福島(Fukushima)  for DP.  LDP is ahead 49.4% to 48.4% but NHK must know what it is doing. This is a reversal of NHK exit poll.

As the last election was in 2010 (before the tsunami) could that have a bearing on this result?

It should.  Given the nuclear power issues DP should have won this by a landslide.  LDP keeping it so close shows how resilient LDP is. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #429 on: July 10, 2016, 08:31:00 AM »

NHK calls 山梨(Yamanashi) for DP who is ahead 43.0% to 38.2%.  I projected this one for DP which was the minority opinion.
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jaichind
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« Reply #430 on: July 10, 2016, 08:34:24 AM »

For 北海道(Hokkaido) with 23% in it is

LDP       23.7%
LDP       22.8%
DP         22.8%
DP         19.8%
JCP          8.6%
PJK          0.6%
LDP rebel 0.4%

Amazing how LDP and DP were so effective at evenly distributing the vote.  There was JCP tactical voting  but it did not work given the collapse of the PJK and LDP rebel. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #431 on: July 10, 2016, 08:37:13 AM »
« Edited: July 10, 2016, 08:39:29 AM by jaichind »

For 新潟(Niigata) with 40% in it is Ind(PLP) 49.1% LDP 48.3% -> Opposition candidate takes the lead
For 大分(Ōita) with 42% in it is LDP 48.0% DP 46.7%
For 愛媛(Ehime) 20% in it is LDP 50.0% Ind (DP) 47.1%
For 宮城(Miyagi) with 31% in it is DP 49.1% LDP 48.7%
For 青森(Aomori) with 48% in it is LDP 50.9% DP 45.3% HRP 3.8% (Huh!!!)
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jaichind
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« Reply #432 on: July 10, 2016, 08:42:25 AM »

For 滋賀(Shiga) which has been called for LDP with 51% in it is LDP 50.5% DP 47.8%.  At least it is close like I projected.  The losing DP incumbent is actually married to a LDP MP whose seat is not up for re-election this time.
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jaichind
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« Reply #433 on: July 10, 2016, 08:47:05 AM »

If you give the 1- member district seat to the party that is ahead, it will come out to LDP-opposition 23-9
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jaichind
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« Reply #434 on: July 10, 2016, 08:52:32 AM »

In 東京(Tokyo) with 16% of the vote in it is

DP               19.3%
LDP             16.8%
KP               14.9%
JCP              12.5%
LDP             11.0%
DP                9.2%
ORA              8.5%
DP rebel        3.2% 
Ind (PLP)      2.7%

The Center-Right bloc much more effective at concentrating their vote.  PJK and NPR are are sub 1%.  DP rebel and Ind(PLP) is risking DP's chances at the 6th and last seat.

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jaichind
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« Reply #435 on: July 10, 2016, 08:56:05 AM »

In 神奈川(Kanagawa) it is total opposition vote coordination disaster.  The result so far is the anti-tactical voting between DP and JCP.  Looks like Ind(LDP) will scrape through.   With 11% of the vote in it is

LDP             27.5%
KP               16.3%
Ind(LDP)      13.7%
DP               12.8%
DP               12.4%
JCP              12.2%
ORA               3.0%

There seems to be ORA tactical voting for Ind(LDP) as well.  To early to tell but Ind(LDP) has a solid shot at winning when it should not.
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jaichind
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« Reply #436 on: July 10, 2016, 08:58:45 AM »

Still ultra early PR results

LDP      44.3%
DP        21.6%
KP        13.5%
JCP         8.8%
ORA        4.9%
SDP        2.2%
PLP         1.6%

As the vote count continues LDP-KP share will go down.
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jaichind
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« Reply #437 on: July 10, 2016, 08:59:40 AM »

NHK calls 宮城(Miyagi) for DP who is ahead 49.8% to 47.8%
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jaichind
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« Reply #438 on: July 10, 2016, 09:04:21 AM »

For 新潟(Niigata) with 86% in it is Ind(PLP) 49.3% LDP 48.7%
For 大分(Ōita) with 62% in it is LDP 48.7% DP 47.1%
For 愛媛(Ehime) 43% in it is LDP 51.8% Ind (DP) 45.9%
For 青森(Aomori) with 83% in it is LDP 50.1% DP 46.8% HRP 3.1% -> they should call this for LDP
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jaichind
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« Reply #439 on: July 10, 2016, 09:06:34 AM »

For 北海道(Hokkaido) with 39% in it is

LDP       24.0%
DP         22.8%
LDP       22.7%
DP         18.7%
JCP          8.6%
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jaichind
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« Reply #440 on: July 10, 2016, 09:08:41 AM »

In 東京(Tokyo) with 29% of the vote in it is

DP               20.0%
LDP             16.7%
KP               14.9%
JCP              11.8%
LDP             11.2%
DP                9.8%
ORA              8.2%
DP rebel        3.1% 
Ind (PLP)      2.2%
VPA              0.8%

Looks like DP should pull this out
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jaichind
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« Reply #441 on: July 10, 2016, 09:12:35 AM »

In 大阪(Osaka) it seems like we have a swing from LDP-KP to ORA creating a de facto optimal allocation of votes while DP-JCP failed in their tactical voting strategy.  With 63% of the vote in it is

LDP      20.8%
ORA      19.8%
KP         18.3%
ORA      18.0%
JCP       12.7%
DP          9.1%
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jaichind
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« Reply #442 on: July 10, 2016, 09:14:48 AM »

In 兵庫(Hyōgo) it seems there was a swing away from ORA to LDP-KP.  DP-JCP tactical voting came close but does not look like will make it.  With 47% of the vote in it is

LDP            27.6%
KP              21.9%
ORA           19.4%
DP             18.4%
JCP            10.5%
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jaichind
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« Reply #443 on: July 10, 2016, 09:16:43 AM »

Still ultra early PR results

LDP      41.0%
DP        20.3%
KP        14.5%
JCP         8.8%
ORA        8.8%
SDP        2.2%
PLP         1.4%
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jaichind
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« Reply #444 on: July 10, 2016, 09:19:55 AM »

For 新潟(Niigata) with 99% in it is Ind(PLP) 49.0% LDP 48.9%
For 大分(Ōita) with 79% in it is LDP 49.2% DP 47.1%
For 愛媛(Ehime) 60% in it is LDP 49.7% Ind (DP) 47.2%
For 青森(Aomori) with 83% in it is LDP 50.2% DP 46.8% HRP 3.0% 
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #445 on: July 10, 2016, 09:23:16 AM »

Asahi calls third seat for 北海道(Hokkaido) for DP!!  Right now it is LDP 22.0% to DP 18.6% but Asahi should know what it is doing.  Rest of the vote must have a DP tilt.
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jaichind
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« Reply #446 on: July 10, 2016, 09:31:00 AM »

About 2% of the vote in for PR it is

Still ultra early PR results

LDP      40.5%
DP        21.5%
KP        14.3%
JCP         9.1%
ORA        7.7%
SDP        2.3%
PLP         1.5%
PJK         0.8%
NPR        0.5%

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jaichind
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« Reply #447 on: July 10, 2016, 09:32:39 AM »

NHK call 新潟(Niigata) for Ind(PLP).  This went against NHK exit poll as well.
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jaichind
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« Reply #448 on: July 10, 2016, 09:39:00 AM »

Looks like PLP escapes again.  Ind (PLP) won in 新潟(Niigata) and 岩手(Iwate) which means PLP will still have 5 MPs overall (Lower and Upper House) which means PLP will continue to get government funding.  Ozawa lives to fight another day.
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jaichind
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« Reply #449 on: July 10, 2016, 09:44:33 AM »

In 山形(Yamagata) the LDP was completely blown out.  With 99% of the vote in it is Ind(DP) 59.1% LDP 38.1%.  What a blowout.  The entire LDP farm bloc must have moved en masse over to Ind(DP).
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