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  IA-Mason Dixon/AARP: Cruz+7, Clinton+6
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Author Topic: IA-Mason Dixon/AARP: Cruz+7, Clinton+6  (Read 1467 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: January 23, 2016, 01:53:35 am »

31.0% Ted Cruz
24.4% Donald Trump
12.3% Marco Rubio
  5.8% Ben Carson
  4.6% Jeb Bush

48.5% Hillary Clinton
42.3% Bernie Sanders
  4.6% Martin O'Malley

This survey of 1,007 likely Iowa caucus voters was conducted by telephone from January 4, 2016 through January 8, 2016. By design, half of the respondents consist of likely Democratic caucus attendees (503) and half consist of likely Republican caucus attendees (504). The margin of error for the full sample of 1,007 is +/- 3.1%, while the margin of error for each subgroup by party (Republican caucus voters or Democratic caucus voters) is +/- 4.5%.

http://www.aarp.org/research/topics/economics/info-2015/ia-likely-primary-voters-social-security.html
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2016, 01:57:18 am »

This survey of 1,007 likely Iowa caucus voters was conducted by telephone from January 4, 2016 through January 8, 2016.

While this somewhat matches the GOP results from then, it is not at all reflective of the current state in Iowa.
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2016, 01:59:16 am »

New Poll: Iowa President by Mason-Dixon on 2016-01-08

Summary:
Cruz:
31%
Trump:
24%
Rubio:
12%
Carson:
6%
Other:
21%
Undecided:
6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Hillary pays minimum wage
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« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2016, 01:59:41 am »

That seems very generous to Cruz.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2016, 01:59:52 am »

Yeah, it's a little outdated.

2 weeks is a long time in a fast-changing election season like this.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2016, 02:16:12 am »

Good news for Sanders since it's an old poll!
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Crumpets
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« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2016, 02:22:18 am »

Good news for Sanders since it's an old poll!

That's assuming he's still trending up. According to RCP, his highest polling average was on the 11th and 12th, and the gap has only gotten 6 points worse for him since then.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: January 23, 2016, 02:29:01 am »

Good news for Sanders since it's an old poll!

That's assuming he's still trending up. According to RCP, his highest polling average was on the 11th and 12th, and the gap has only gotten 6 points worse for him since then.

That's almost entirely due to two trash polls though (Gravis & Loras).

Anyway, I had no idea Mason-Dixon was even still around.
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A Perez
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« Reply #8 on: January 23, 2016, 05:30:21 am »

The media will  ignore this poll because Sanders is not leading in it. The media only goes gaga about polls where Clinton is losing in Iowa.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #9 on: January 23, 2016, 05:37:29 am »

The media will  ignore this poll because Sanders is not leading in it. The media only goes gaga about polls where Clinton is losing in Iowa.

This poll is two weeks old of course they won't report it.
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A Perez
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« Reply #10 on: January 23, 2016, 05:50:02 am »

Loras is newer and they don't report it either.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #11 on: January 23, 2016, 06:24:55 am »

The poll is too old and does not reflect the momentum of The Donald.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #12 on: January 23, 2016, 06:40:03 am »

Both look trashy; the Republican one somewhat more so.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #13 on: January 23, 2016, 03:20:52 pm »

2 weeks ago? 

JUNK POLL!
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A Perez
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« Reply #14 on: January 23, 2016, 04:34:19 pm »


It's not junk. For instance, this poll can be compared to the Selzer poll that found Sanders trailing Hillary by 2% and the ARG poll that found Sanders ahead by 3%. Both polls were conducted at a similar time compared to Mason/Dixon.

Sanders supporters will want to ignore it because they don't like the outcome.
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cxs018
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« Reply #15 on: January 23, 2016, 05:06:01 pm »


It's not junk. For instance, this poll can be compared to the Selzer poll that found Sanders trailing Hillary by 2% and the ARG poll that found Sanders ahead by 3%. Both polls were conducted at a similar time compared to Mason/Dixon.

Sanders supporters will want to ignore it because they don't like the outcome.

Fair enough, but Selzer polls tend to be superior to Mason-Dixon polls. Anybody who's sane will ignore ARG on sight, and that shouldn't have been brought up.
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A Perez
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« Reply #16 on: January 23, 2016, 06:23:22 pm »

The Desmoines Register just endorsed Hillary Clinton.  http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/editorials/endorsement/2016/01/23/des-moines-register-caucus-endorsement-hillary-clinton/79240238/
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