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  IA Qunnippiac Sanders 49 Clinton 45 O'Malley 4
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Author Topic: IA Qunnippiac Sanders 49 Clinton 45 O'Malley 4  (Read 2488 times)
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jfern
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« on: January 27, 2016, 05:26:27 am »

It sounds like the poll actually wasn't supposed to be released until 6AM CT.

Sanders 49
Clinton 45
O'Malley 4

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/27/newsletter-iowa-will-be-at-decided-the-wire-for-hillary-clinton-and-bernie-sanders-poll-suggests/
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #1 on: January 27, 2016, 05:41:15 am »

DAMNN!!
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jfern
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« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2016, 05:45:46 am »


Don't get too excited yet.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2016, 05:49:50 am »

So... compared to the last QU poll...

Sanders (-)
Clinton (+1)
O'Malley (-)
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2016, 06:16:10 am »

It sounds the Democrats may have a nailbiter this time as opposed to us in 2012
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2016, 06:52:53 am »

That means we now have 3 polls in a row showing Sanders ahead.

IA will be a lean-Sanders state on the Atlas poll site soon when this poll gets entered.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2016, 07:06:52 am »

Here's the full writeup:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2319

Huge gender gap...

men:
Sanders 63%
Clinton 32%

women:
Clinton 54%
Sanders 40%

Also note that Clinton supporters are higher income, higher education level than Sanders supporters.  Is this just a consequence of Clinton supporters being older?  Or is Clinton support more "wine track" and Sanders support more "beer track" than we thought?
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #7 on: January 27, 2016, 07:09:58 am »

I really wish they would ask O'Malley voters for their second preference...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #8 on: January 27, 2016, 07:10:04 am »

I only trust Selzer.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: January 27, 2016, 07:13:03 am »

I really wish they would ask O'Malley voters for their second preference...

PPP had it recently:

O'Malley voters 2nd choice was 43% Sanders, 20% Clinton, 37% Undecided.

Of course there are hardly any O'Malley voters, so the MoE is huge.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #10 on: January 27, 2016, 07:13:49 am »
« Edited: January 27, 2016, 07:33:11 am by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »

I'm trying to figure out what kind of modelling they're using re gender breakdown...

EDIT: Looks like they're expecting a gender breakdown on par with 2004 as opposed to 2008, considering no Obama factor that's probably a reasonable basis.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: January 27, 2016, 07:25:22 am »

With the new poll, Bernie will also take the lead for the first time on the RCP average for IA.
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YPestis25
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« Reply #12 on: January 27, 2016, 07:38:00 am »

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #13 on: January 27, 2016, 08:15:05 am »

I wonder if this will be their final poll or if they'll squeeze one more in before Monday?
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cxs018
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« Reply #14 on: January 27, 2016, 08:55:44 am »


If jfern's telling you not to be too much of a Bernie hack, you are doing something terribly wrong.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #15 on: January 27, 2016, 08:59:06 am »

I feel happy for Bernie, that's why a n important black congressman switched his endorsement.
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cxs018
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« Reply #16 on: January 27, 2016, 09:00:23 am »

I feel happy for Bernie, that's why a n important black congressman switched his endorsement.

What are you going on about? No congressman switched their endorsement.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #17 on: January 27, 2016, 09:07:50 am »

I feel happy for Bernie, that's why a n important black congressman switched his endorsement.

What are you going on about? No congressman switched their endorsement.

I think he's talking about a state rep.:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/justin-bamberg-endorses-bernie-sanders-218184
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #18 on: January 27, 2016, 09:14:51 am »

There is an electability question in Sanders, that mostly GOPers have been saying, that Clinton will win and Sanders wont. And GOP will do everything to defeat Clinton as well with emails.
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Shadows
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« Reply #19 on: January 27, 2016, 12:40:30 pm »

There is an electability question in Sanders, that mostly GOPers have been saying, that Clinton will win and Sanders wont. And GOP will do everything to defeat Clinton as well with emails.

Hillary Clinton is UNELECTABLE. Democrats can put anyone and still win except Hillary. Around 20% of Sanders supporters have said they would not vote if need be while only 4% of Clinton's supporters have. Sanders is getting a small cross-over vote from Republicans, he got a whopping 25% vote from Republicans from Vermont.

And he is sweeping the Independents. Like 60-70% & Hillary rest. The independents are the largest voting bloc, whoever gets it will LIKELY win.

Sanders is forming a Democrat-Independent-Young Voter coalition by expanding the pie & increasing turnout which could potentially sweep the elections like it has not been done in 30-40 years.

Hillary can't win - She can't even get 100% of the Progressive votes
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Torie
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« Reply #20 on: January 27, 2016, 01:12:17 pm »

This is a poll of "votes" that will not actually be counted, right? What is counted is number of delegates elected, where Bernie will end up with a lot of wasted votes out of his troika of college town counties.
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Torie
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« Reply #21 on: January 27, 2016, 01:13:10 pm »

This is a poll of "votes" that will not actually be counted, right? What is counted is number of delegates elected, where Bernie will end up with a lot of wasted votes out of his troika of college town counties. Bernie would be well advised to have his people in each precinct count the raw votes and release them to the press.
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Shadows
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« Reply #22 on: January 27, 2016, 01:17:45 pm »

Iowa will be very close come what may. O-Malley supports could decide a very close contest
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #23 on: January 27, 2016, 01:17:58 pm »

This is a poll of "votes" that will not actually be counted, right? What is counted is number of delegates elected, where Bernie will end up with a lot of wasted votes out of his troika of college town counties. Bernie would be well advised to have his people in each precinct count the raw votes and release them to the press.

Is that even legal?
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #24 on: January 27, 2016, 01:24:18 pm »

Any momentum that Sanders may have coming out of Iowa will be not only halted, but utterly annihilated by his landslide loss to Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
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