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  IA-Monmouth: Clinton up 5
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Author Topic: IA-Monmouth: Clinton up 5  (Read 1421 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: January 28, 2016, 11:19:56 am »
« edited: January 28, 2016, 11:27:11 am by Castro »

Clinton - 47% (-8%)
Sanders - 42% (+9%)
O'Malley - 6% (No Change)

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/f94fe349-47c3-4af3-86b9-5f50e362d1ec.pdf
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Holmes
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« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2016, 11:24:40 am »

Looking good for Clinton in these closing days. Just need to see what Selzer says on Saturday.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2016, 11:25:08 am »

Clinton was up 22 points by Monmouth in December. Not the best trajectory for Clinton, but I still think she's pulls out a narrow win.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2016, 11:32:23 am »

DOMINATING!
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2016, 11:34:06 am »

As noted before, every poll of Iowa is really a guess at the turnout scenario. The Clinton+5 number assumes a turnout of 110,000.  They also mapped out a couple of other higher turnout scenarios:


150,000 voters:
Clinton 46%
Sanders 43%

200,000 voters:
Clinton 45%
Sanders 44%
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2016, 11:36:35 am »

110,000 seems somewhat small.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2016, 11:45:02 am »


A 17% collapse in the course of a month isn't really dominating.
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« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2016, 11:49:23 am »

Iowa is a must win for Sanders and this does not look good for him. And considering that this caucus is all about geography, it's a big plus that Clinton is better organized.

One thing that is telling is that Sanders did not start performing well in Iowa until after the data breach. Looks like that might not have been enough.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2016, 12:08:19 pm »


A 17% collapse in the course of a month isn't really dominating.

Beating your opponent in one of his top five states, demographically, certainly is.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #9 on: January 28, 2016, 12:10:17 pm »

Iowa really is going to be one of those races where the only poll that matters is on caucus day. With DMR likely to show a statistically tied race in its final poll, the results of Iowa are going to depend mostly on turnout levels and ground game.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #10 on: January 28, 2016, 12:28:21 pm »

Damn, I expected that Clinton would have a double digit margin in this poll...
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #11 on: January 28, 2016, 12:30:23 pm »

As noted before, every poll of Iowa is really a guess at the turnout scenario. The Clinton+5 number assumes a turnout of 110,000.  They also mapped out a couple of other higher turnout scenarios:


150,000 voters:
Clinton 46%
Sanders 43%

200,000 voters:
Clinton 45%
Sanders 44%

100,000?  Lower than 2004?  LOLOLOLOLOL! 
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: January 28, 2016, 12:43:19 pm »

This poll also has Clinton and Sanders nearly tied among men. Heh.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #13 on: January 28, 2016, 12:57:38 pm »

This poll also has Clinton and Sanders nearly tied among men. Heh.

Does it?

Lolz.

Can I get a JUNK POLL!?
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Holmes
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« Reply #14 on: January 28, 2016, 01:21:33 pm »


Here you go.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #15 on: January 28, 2016, 01:53:11 pm »
« Edited: January 28, 2016, 02:57:54 pm by Sorenroy »


Gave me a chuckle m8.

Anyway here are the specific numbers:

Men:
Sanders - 46% (+4)
Clinton - 43% (-4)

Women:
Clinton - 50% (-11)
Sanders - 38 (+11)

Favorabilities:
Candidate - Favorable-Unfavorable (Net)
Sanders - 85-9 (+76)
Clinton - 78-17 (+61)
O'Malley - 50-14 (+36)

Edit: My mistake, women voters are 50-38 Clinton. Thanks Eraserhead, it has been fixed.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #16 on: January 28, 2016, 02:34:10 pm »


Gave me a chuckle m8.

Anyway here are the specific numbers:

Men:
Sanders - 46% (+4)
Clinton - 43% (-4)

Women:
Clinton - 58% (-11)
Sanders - 38 (+11)

Favorabilities:
Candidate - Favorable-Unfavorable (Net)
Sanders - 85-9 (+76)
Clinton - 78-17 (+61)
O'Malley - 50-14 (+36)

Clinton is at 50% among women, not 58%.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #17 on: January 28, 2016, 06:28:03 pm »


A 17% collapse in the course of a month isn't really dominating.

Beating your opponent in one of his top five states, demographically, certainly is.

Yeah, people really don't seem to realize that Iowa should be Bernie country. Bernie losing it would be equivalent to Clinton losing a Deep South state.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #18 on: January 28, 2016, 09:11:58 pm »

Looking good for Clinton in these closing days. Just need to see what Selzer says on Saturday.

Looking good?? She's collapsing.
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Holmes
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« Reply #19 on: January 28, 2016, 09:21:54 pm »

Looking good for Clinton in these closing days. Just need to see what Selzer says on Saturday.

Looking good?? She's collapsing.

I mean, you can call it what you want, but it's pretty clear. One person is winning, and the other one isn't. Sorry, I guess?
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #20 on: January 28, 2016, 09:42:22 pm »

Looking good for Clinton in these closing days. Just need to see what Selzer says on Saturday.

Looking good?? She's collapsing.

I mean, you can call it what you want, but it's pretty clear. One person is winning, and the other one isn't. Sorry, I guess?

Much higher respected QUINNIPIAC has Bernie up 4.  Sorry, Nikki Minasgh.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #21 on: January 28, 2016, 09:56:58 pm »

I don't really get how either side can be confident of victory when they look at this.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-caucus

It's a complete tossup.
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jfern
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« Reply #22 on: January 28, 2016, 10:28:22 pm »

I don't really get how either side can be confident of victory when they look at this.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-caucus

It's a complete tossup.

True, we find out Monday.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #23 on: January 28, 2016, 10:29:07 pm »

I don't really get how either side can be confident of victory when they look at this.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-caucus

It's a complete tossup.

I'm pretty sure the people acting confident of victory are trolling.
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Beet
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« Reply #24 on: January 28, 2016, 10:30:38 pm »

If only this f**** thing had been on January 4 like it was supposed to be.
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