Selzer/DMR/Bloomberg FINAL IOWA POLL: Trump +5, Clinton +3

[IceSpear]

About what I expected. Not quite comfortable enough to feel confident. But it's great to know that Quinnipiac is out on a ledge now.

[IceSpear]

As a reminder, DMR's final pre-Iowa poll in 2012:

Romney 24
Paul 22
Santorum 15
Gingirch 12
Perry 11
Bachmann 7
Huntsman 2

Yes it's all about momentum.

Their last poll had Clinton up 2. Unless you're referring to the Republican side.

[IceSpear]

Selzer: "No discernable direction that O'Malley supporters will go, due to extremely small sample size (15 people)."

[IceSpear]

Lol it's a 3 point lead Shillarys calm down.

So now you know what people look like freaking out about Overtime. Except, you know, this lot know Iowa and it's still important. But it's still IA and no one knows how this BS will turn out.

Nobody has ever freaked out about Overtime. Give me one example.

Wulfric sure seemed excited.

Overtime finds Clinton cratering in Ohio!

[IceSpear]

As a reminder, DMR's final pre-Iowa poll in 2012:

Romney 24
Paul 22
Santorum 15
Gingirch 12
Perry 11
Bachmann 7
Huntsman 2

"Gold standard"

Santorum clearly had the last second momentum. If anyone has momentum this time, it's Trump.

[IceSpear]

Selzer: "No discernable direction that O'Malley supporters will go, due to extremely small sample size (15 people)."

lmao 15 people

That did seem kind of low to me, I expected 15 people to be more like 2% support. Turns out he just BARELY rounded to 3.

[IceSpear]

So they'll be a lot of unenthusiastic Republicans regardless of who is the nominee.

That's the price of an overtly negative campaign. For all the talk about how Hillary and Bernie are at each other's throats, compared to the GOP side they're playing by the Marquis of Queensbury rules.

[IceSpear]

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-01-30/bloomberg-politics-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-democrats

Only one in three likely Democratic voters in the survey are first-time caucus-goers, who break decidedly toward Sanders. That compares with 60 percent in the final pre-caucus survey of 2008

In addition, the survey finds Clinton’s support is deeper and sturdier than Sanders’ across many areas

“Most of the ways you look at it, she’s stronger than the three-point race would suggest,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer.

Sanders does not have as broad a reach as Obama did.
In the final pre-caucus survey of 2008, Obama led in many categories, with both definite and probable caucus-goers and decided as well as persuadable voters.

What I do find interesting in the poll, however, is that Hillary is within the margin of error of being toppled yet again in IA with only 34% of intended caucus-goers being first-timers, whereas it took 60% to dethrone her in 2008. This tells me that Clinton, in some ways, is even weaker than she was in 2008.

It didn't necessarily take 60% to "dethrone" her. She got beat by 9 points. You're better with data than I am: what would the results have been if 2008 was 34%? Or 2016 being 60%?

[IceSpear]

The thing is, Selzer picked up the upcoming huge wave for Obama. She doesn't see it for Sanders. And with 60% being so huge, absent large population growth, 60% again might not even be possible.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html
She only led 2 out of the last 5 polls in 2008.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html
She's leading 5 out of the last 7, including in the DMR that predicted her demise last time.

It's pretty interesting that the only 2 pollsters to show Hillary ahead in 08 (ARG and CNN) show Sanders ahead this time.

[IceSpear]

LOL, according to the poll Rubio's support DROPPED the last two days of the survey, after the debate he "won".

but muh surge

If he does finish strongly, we'll see first hand how much influence untrue media spin can have.