NH-UMass Lowell/7 News Daily Tracking Poll Thread

[Tender Branson]

This is a daily tracker:

On the Democratic side, Sanders, an independent U.S. Senator from neighboring Vermont, has support from 61 percent of likely voters. Former secretary of state, U.S. Senator and first lady Hillary Clinton trails with 30 percent of the vote.

On the Republican side, the businessman Trump has support from 38 percent of likely primary voters, followed by Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, with 12 percent. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are tied at 9 percent, followed by Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio at 8 percent and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 7 percent.

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http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/02/new_hampshire_poll_gives_donal.html

[ProgressiveCanadian]

But the NH Women.....

[Sorenroy]

When will the specifics/crosstabs be realized/are they already there and I missed them?

The PDF is here: http://www.uml.edu/docs/TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY%2020160201_tcm18-230419.pdf

They plan on releasing a poll every day leading up to the New Hampshire primary which is interesting.

Also this is the highest Sanders has ever polled ever and ties the lowest Clinton polled when Biden was still being polled in the race.

[Phony Moderate]

With 18-29 year-olds it's 89-5 to Sanders..........

With men overall it's Sanders 68-23 and Sanders 55-36 with women.

Which begs the question - are there any under 30 males intending to vote for Hillary?

[HillOfANight]

I'm 25 for Hillary In Georgia though.

[Mr. Morden]

Which begs the question - are there any under 30 males intending to vote for Hillary?

Doesn't Clinton also do quite well with LGBT voters?  I guess that's one slice of under 30 males she might get.

But what about straight white males under 30?  That's got to be pretty lopsided in Sanders's favor.

[Sorenroy]

Full Republican Numbers (for likely voters)
Trump — 38
Cruz — 12
Kasich — 9
Bush — 9
Rubio — 8
Christie — 7
Carson — 3
Paul — 3
Fiorina — 2
Santorum — 1

All others at zero.

[Shadows]

I doubt Hillary will do well with LGBT. Bernie's record is stellar while Hillary was basically anti-gay (gay-marriage) all her life. Rachel Maddow called her out on her bluff, so.

Anyways this is meaningless. NH is meaningless. It's decided & a solid victory for Bernie.

Don't know why Clinton wants a debate there, she should focus on Nevada & hold on to make it a very strong win in South Carolina.

[Sorenroy]

Sanders leads in every demographic they polled except “How much of the time can you trust the federal government in Washington DC to do what’s right?” In which "Always/Most of the Time" had a 46-46 split.

[The Free North]

With 18-29 year-olds it's 89-5 to Sanders..........

With men overall it's Sanders 68-23 and Sanders 55-36 with women.

Which begs the question - are there any under 30 males intending to vote for Hillary?

Considering Hillary has made no attempt to reach out to men or younger voters, why would they ever support her over Sanders?

[MasterJedi]

Amusing how Obama and Sanders so easily brainwash the younger generation. Both parties stand in opposition to a ton of his proposals so if he's elected he'll be a do nothing President. But you know, HOPE, CHANGE, "FREE" STUFF!

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Amusing how Obama and Sanders so easily brainwash the younger generation. Both parties stand in opposition to a ton of his proposals so if he's elected he'll be a do nothing President. But you know, HOPE, CHANGE, "FREE" STUFF!

This line of attack didn't work in 2012, don't expect it to work this year.

[MasterJedi]

Amusing how Obama and Sanders so easily brainwash the younger generation. Both parties stand in opposition to a ton of his proposals so if he's elected he'll be a do nothing President. But you know, HOPE, CHANGE, "FREE" STUFF!

This line of attack didn't work in 2012, don't expect it to work this year.

I don't expect it to work. If it's Trump or Cruz Hillary or Sanders will win. What I'm saying by "free stuff" is that if there's free healthcare or college it's not free, we'll all be paying a lot more for it but a lot of millennials have no understanding of that concept.

Hell if the Republicans are stupid enough to nominate Trump and Hillary is his opponent I'll even vote Clinton while holding my nose. If it's Trump v Sanders we're doomed.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Amusing how Obama and Sanders so easily brainwash the younger generation. Both parties stand in opposition to a ton of his proposals so if he's elected he'll be a do nothing President. But you know, HOPE, CHANGE, "FREE" STUFF!

This line of attack didn't work in 2012, don't expect it to work this year.

I don't expect it to work. If it's Trump or Cruz Hillary or Sanders will win. What I'm saying by "free stuff" is that if there's free healthcare or college it's not free, we'll all be paying a lot more for it but a lot of millennials have no understanding of that concept.

Hell if the Republicans are stupid enough to nominate Trump and Hillary is his opponent I'll even vote Clinton while holding my nose. If it's Trump v Sanders we're doomed.

Actually the plan is pretty clear that even though taxes will be raised it will help Americans in the long run with the social programs getting rid of private insurance costs etc. In fact it will help the middle class more and put more of a burden on the rich.

[MasterJedi]

Amusing how Obama and Sanders so easily brainwash the younger generation. Both parties stand in opposition to a ton of his proposals so if he's elected he'll be a do nothing President. But you know, HOPE, CHANGE, "FREE" STUFF!

This line of attack didn't work in 2012, don't expect it to work this year.

I don't expect it to work. If it's Trump or Cruz Hillary or Sanders will win. What I'm saying by "free stuff" is that if there's free healthcare or college it's not free, we'll all be paying a lot more for it but a lot of millennials have no understanding of that concept.

Hell if the Republicans are stupid enough to nominate Trump and Hillary is his opponent I'll even vote Clinton while holding my nose. If it's Trump v Sanders we're doomed.

Actually the plan is pretty clear that even though taxes will be raised it will help Americans in the long run with the social programs getting rid of private insurance costs etc. In fact it will help the middle class more and put more of a burden on the rich.

Sanders has already said he'd raise the payroll tax for everyone, so while the rich will pay more % wise everyone is going to be hit too. Needless to say even with more taxes we will only pay a fraction of the trillions per year he wants to spend. That's why both parties will basically line up against most of what Sanders proposes. He'll be a do nothing President.

[Eraserhead]

NH will be a bloodbath if Clinton wins in Iowa. If Sanders pulls off a miracle tonight, I'd bet on things tightening up though. NH likes to be "different".

[President Johnson]

Full Republican Numbers (for likely voters)
Trump — 38
Cruz — 12
Kasich — 9
Bush — 9
Rubio — 8
Christie — 7
Carson — 3
Paul — 3
Fiorina — 2
Santorum — 1

All others at zero.

Great poll. THE DONALD is killing. Hope he cracks 40% after a win in Iowa.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton still has NV & SC, if she loses both, Iowa & NH, and Bernie Sanders, he already said has to win 3/4 for Super Tuesday.

She should skip NH & focus on NV or SC

[Eraserhead]

But the NH Women.....

NH is still a Tossup. If Clinton loses it, it will be because too many angry women decided to vote for Trump and Cruz in the GOP primary to make Clinton's path to the White House easier.

I guess you should have had your whole shtick revolve around IA women instead of NH women, eh?

[IceSpear]

Man, NH is brutal. Good thing a Sanders win there is already baked into the pie.

[Beet]

NH will be a bloodbath if Clinton wins in Iowa. If Sanders pulls off a miracle tonight, I'd bet on things tightening up though. NH likes to be "different".

A "miracle"? LOL. Your guy is within the MoE in the DMR poll and has the momentum. IMO he will win tonight because most of Hillarys supporters are old and decrepit 80 year olds who can't sit around for 3 hours. They support her but they won't attend the caucus. Also, yes NH likes upsets but not like this margin.

[Eraserhead]

NH will be a bloodbath if Clinton wins in Iowa. If Sanders pulls off a miracle tonight, I'd bet on things tightening up though. NH likes to be "different".

A "miracle"? LOL. Your guy is within the MoE in the DMR poll and has the momentum. IMO he will win tonight because most of Hillarys supporters are old and decrepit 80 year olds who can't sit around for 3 hours. They support her but they won't attend the caucus. Also, yes NH likes upsets but not like this margin.

Haha, I know you're even more of a pessimist than I am but I will be shocked if your girl doesn't win tonight. Olds can always be counted on to turn out and you know this. Bernie's base of 20-somethings is a shaky one to bet on at best.

[Sorenroy]

http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-2%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230491.pdf

Candidates polling:
Candidate — Percentage (Change from yesterday.)

Democrats:
Sanders — 63 (+2)
Clinton — 30 (No Change)
O'Malley* — 1 (No Change)

Republicans:
Trump — 38 (No Change)
Cruz — 14 (+2)
Rubio — 10 (+2)
Kasich — 9 (No Change)
Bush — 9 (No Change)
Christie — 5 (-2)
Carson — 3 (-1)
Paul — 2 (-2)
Santorum — 1 (No Change)
Fiorina — 3 (+1)
Huckabee* — 0 (No Change)

*While it looks like both Huckabee and O'Malley were options in todays polling, both have suspended their campaigns.

[The Other Castro]

Lol Sanders is not winning NH by 33, though the reaction around here would be pretty hilarious if he did.

[Landslide Lyndon]

After yesterday's polling debacle I think we cansafely disregard all these polls which show Sanders winning by a gazzilion points.