Inside an IA caucus

[muon2]

I spent Monday evening as a Rubio surrogate at an IA caucus. Over the next few posts I'll share some observations on the process and what it might reveal about what was happening in the state overall. I'm happy to take questions as I go along.

Surrogates are outside speakers brought in to represent the candidate in a caucus meeting. Over the weekend before the caucus the IA HQ worked out which precincts should get surrogates. They were primarily sent to the large Pub precincts near the population centers of Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and Davenport. I asked for a precinct near Cedar Rapids, due to my family connections to the area. I was assigned to a rural precinct outside of town - 2010 population 2,095. It voted Obama 561, McCain 543 in 2008.

I checked in with the field office Monday afternoon to get any updates and thoughts on the issues that mattered most based on their voter contacts. The office was a very typical affair in a strip center with a half dozen volunteers working the phones. Everyone was upbeat, so I could sense the buzz that we were hearing about over the weekend. Callers had state-of-the-art microtarget lists to get supporters to the caucus. All the volunteers were young 20-somethings, and mostly from IA, but there was at least one volunteer from Miami. He was supposed to leave that day, but heavy fog had cancelled his flight, and a snowstorm was forecast for Tuesday, so that wasn't looking good either.

I then went to my hotel room for a couple of hours. I turned on Fox News to get a sense of the stories that caucus-goers would be hearing. More importantly, I wanted a sense of the final round of ads that the Pubs were running. I wasn't disappointed as every commercial break was dominated by ads for candidates, both positive and negative. The negative ads seemed to come mostly from superpacs. I also got a sense that ISIS and ethanol policy were likely to be bigger issues than immigration.

Next up, the caucus venue and precaucus activity.

[Torie]

"I checked in with the field office Monday afternoon to get any updates and thoughts on the issues that mattered most based on their voter contacts."

What was the input to your question, and was any of it precinct specific? Were you given any feedback of specific voters to work on?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

How did the precinct you volunteered in vote?

[Torie]

How did the precinct you volunteered in vote?

He will get to that later I'm sure. Muon2 is doing this in chapters. Let him build the suspense!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

How did the precinct you volunteered in vote?

I have a friend who lives near Iowa and went to a caucus to campaign for Rubio.  Trump won that one in a landslide, unfortunately.

[angus]

inside an IA caucus.

Those are fun!  I still remember my first Iowa Republican caucus.  Black Hawk County GOP did it county-wide that year, so 4500 voters showed up, along with a few candidates. 

[muon2]

"I checked in with the field office Monday afternoon to get any updates and thoughts on the issues that mattered most based on their voter contacts."

What was the input to your question, and was any of it precinct specific? Were you given any feedback of specific voters to work on?

They were pretty generic. They mostly suggested his optimism and electability. In my upcoming posts, you will see that that was a factor with the voters.

[muon2]

The caucus was at the high school in the small city within the township/precinct. The high school also serves as a middle school covering grades 6-12 and the school has less than 200 students. The doors opened for the caucus at 5:30 and I was there about 5:45. In the atrium there was a sign directing the Dems down the hallway and the Pubs had two tables set up at one side of the atrium. I introduced myself to the workers at the first table and they directed me into the room next door to talk to the site coordinator.

The two tables were a bit of surprise since they corresponded to two townships, each their own precinct. When I was a surrogate in 2008 there were multiple precincts at the Scott county school, but each precinct went to a separate room. Here both precincts were sent into the same room - the combination small gym and auditorium. The bleachers were pulled out filling most of the floor facing the stage. They looked liked they would seat about 200. There were signs at the bottom of the steps to mark the far side for the township/precinct we were in, and for the near side for the township/precinct to the south (pop 796, McCain 236, Obama 214).

The site coordinator was very friendly and was happy to have a surrogate speak. She said that for some reason they put both precincts in te same room, so she would do her best to let each precinct do their own meeting and speeches. She said that I would be able to speak to the assembled group of both precincts. I asked about the time limit and she said two minutes. I said I thought I would be given four minutes, and one of the precinct workers said that they were told 3 to 5 minutes at their training. I said whatever the coordinator wanted I would do, she's the boss.

Also on arrival the site coordinator pointed me at the Bush surrogate. He was a nice guy from OH and he turned out to be the only other surrogate at our site. I also saw that there was already a group of a half dozen Cruz supporters in the far part of the bleachers, so they were from the precinct I was assigned to. One of them was moving around and had a badge identifying him as the Cruz precinct captain, so I introduced myself to him as well. He was more focused and not as chatty as the Bush guy. Soon a Trump captain arrived as well and he was as genial as the Bush surrogate.

Next up, caucus voters arrive.

[Torie]

"I said whatever the coordinator wanted I would do, she's the boss."

And she said  ... ? I assume she said something other than if you speak on millisecond over 2 minutes, I will physically rip the microphone out of your hands, and pull at your beard until it hurts.

[muon2]

"I said whatever the coordinator wanted I would do, she's the boss."

And she said  ... ? I assume she said something other than if you speak on millisecond over 2 minutes, I will physically rip the microphone out of your hands, and pull at your beard until it hurts.

She actually didn't say anything else at that point, which left us thinking that 4 minutes would apply.

[muon2]

At 6:00 a woman came in with a bunch of Rubio signs and literature. In 2008 they didn't want signs in the caucus where I was at, but this time signs were fine. So we put a couple up in prominent places, and the Cruz and Trump folks followed our lead with signs on each wall. She was from the smaller precinct which was organized near the entry, so the remaining signs were in a nice pile on the bleacher as people came in. The signs were handed out to supporters as the came in to hold in their seats. The Cruz and Trump people were doing the same as well.

By 6:15 there was a steady stream of voters into the caucus. I talked to a few as they came in, but more often helped them identify which township they were in and on which side of the bleachers they should sit. Everybody had a small blue slip of paper for voting, and if they didn't have a pen there was a box they could take one from. People often found friends and neighbors to sit with, though there were some clear groups forming by candidate. One woman was friends with the Rubio woman, but said she was caucusing for Fiorina. That's OK, they sat together anyway. Over on the far side there was a clear group of Cruz supporters sitting together. The Bush surrogate was standing near me asking people to take flyers for Jeb, and many were polite and did so. Iowans are pretty polite people.

By 6:45 The stands were getting quite full. One person familiar with the school found a stack of chairs. Those of us organizing for candidates helped the site coordinator put out a dozen or more of the chairs in from of the bleachers for what was becoming an overflow crowd. The site coordinator had to remind the voters to keep a line down the middle to keep the precincts separate. She apologized for the lack of separate rooms, but it was the only large space available assigned to them. Apparently, the smaller precinct usually voted at a church in their own township. A member of that church was there and said that a sign was put up to direct voters who hadn't seen the mail that they were voting at the school.

At 7:00 the doors were supposed to close, but there was still a line at the check-in table. The site coordinator said that they would start when everyone currently in line was checked in. Finally by about 7:10 everyone was in and the caucus could begin. There were 152 voters from the large precinct and 80 from the smaller precinct. The precinct secretary told me that they had far fewer in 2012 and was surprised that the crowd was standing room only. From my point of view this was a sign that turnout was going to be much larger than anticipated across the state.

Next up, the caucus begins.

[muon2]

The caucus opened with the usual prayer and Pledge of Allegiance. The site coordinator now needed to have the formal actions to elect precinct coordinators and secretaries. There was no competition for these offices so each precinct's acting coordinator ran the nomination and vote for the other precinct. These are important but usually thankless jobs, and there was lack of motions from the floor to nominate and second the current occupants. With that done the caucus could be declared official.

The next step was quite different from 2008. Then the next step was to nominate county delegates, but given the problems with Ron Paul in 2012, the directions were changed. Instead the site coordinator asked each precinct to cluster based on candidate preferences. I thought she might be thinking of the Dem system, but the purpose was to identify one person per candidate in each precinct to speak on behalf of the candidate.

Once the caucus split into groups I could see roughly the support for each candidate. Rubio was clearly doing better than the 15% from the Selzer poll and Trump's group didn't look any bigger than Rubio's. Cruz was larger, but only in the big precinct. It looked promising at this point.

Since the precincts were selecting speakers I asked the site coordinator how the speeches would go. She said the candidates would be called one at a time and I would get my own time to speak before the two Rubio speakers from the precincts. She told me it would be two minutes, but it was clear there was no time that would be kept, so I just had to be reasonable.

As the groups were meeting I talked with each to see what they wanted to highlight in their speeches. It was clear that the Rubio supporters were every bit as evangelical as the Cruz supporters, and they liked Rubio's appeal to faith. However, they thought that electability was the most important feature and they liked Rubio's persona and his ability to reach Hispanics and win in November.

After about 20-30 minutes of this part of the caucus, everyone went back to the bleachers.

Next up, speeches.

[kcguy]

Cool thread.  Look forward to hearing more.

[Torie]

"As the groups were meeting I talked with each to see what they wanted to highlight in their speeches."

When you refer to "the groups" are you referring to just the two Rubio groups, one for each precinct, or groups for all the candidates? Obviously, I am wondering if you spoke to supporters of other candidates to find out what they planned to talk about or hope would be talked about. Or are you referring just to the other two Rubio speakers that would come after you, when you refer to "each?"

It is a fascinating story to hear. Thanks.

[muon2]

"As the groups were meeting I talked with each to see what they wanted to highlight in their speeches."

When you refer to "the groups" are you referring to just the two Rubio groups, one for each precinct, or groups for all the candidates? Obviously, I am wondering if you spoke to supporters of other candidates to find out what they planned to talk about or hope would be talked about. Or are you referring just to the other two Rubio speakers that would come after you, when you refer to "each?"

It is a fascinating story to hear. Thanks.

I just spoke to the two Rubio groups.

[muon2]

The site coordinator announced that it was time for speeches. She would read the candidates in alphabetical order and each precinct candidate spokesperson would get two minutes at the mic. Normally she said that the precincts should hear just their own precincts speakers, but since they were all together, they would all hear both speakers.

Bush was first up. Since Bush had a surrogate, the guy from OH would go first. He gave a positive speech starting with his home area in NE OH then going to Jeb's governing experience. He read from a written prepared speech. When the coordinator asked each precinct for a speaker no one volunteered to speak. I figured that they were fine with the surrogate. I was trusting that the Rubio groups would still do their speeches in addition to mine.

Carson was next. The speeches were all about Carson's sincerity and faith. The fact that he wasn't part of Washington mattered, too.I thought that one of the speeches was particularly well done for someone in the audience just speaking from the heart.

Christie's name was called, but no one stood up for him.

Cruz had a big contingent and the speaker from the big township was a local pastor and gave a pretty good sermon extolling Cruz's virtues as a man of faith and man who will defend the laws and constitution. The other speaker had some prepared notes to read and he got somewhat negative towards both Rubio and Trump as not being pure conservatives.

Fiorina's name was called and I thought no one was going to speak at first. Then a person from the big precinct stepped up to say some words for Carly. He was impressed by her executive experience and thought it was something needed for the next president. I noted that the woman I spoke with who came in to caucus didn't speak from the other precinct.

Gilmore, Huckabee and Kasich's names were called but no one stood up to speak for either.

Paul had one person come forward from the big precinct. He was very concerned about personal liberty   and Paul's positions were a perfect fit.  Around this time I noticed a couple leave, they said they had to get back to the kids. Then another couple left carrying a Trump sign, which means they didn't vote for Trump. One other person left during the speeches bringing the total of nonvoters to 5.

Now Rubio. As the surrogate I got to go first. The campaign had emailed me talking points before I left IL, and I had talked to the field office, but I preferred to wing it. I started with my roots, that my family is from the county and my dad was born and is buried here. I moved to Rubio's background in foreign policy from his Senate committee and its unique connection to the president who must face ISIS and other threats (I raised this same point on another thread.) Then I complimented all the speakers so far and asserted that any of the candidates represented here would be better than Hillary. It was the best applause line all night. Then I segued into my legislative experience and how my Dem colleagues told me that Rubio is the candidate they feared most. All that followed was my request to join me in supporting Marco.

Both precincts followed with Rubio speakers, too. Even better, the big precinct had a pastor speak for Marco. As I heard in the group the pastor talked about outreach to Hispanics and the need to win in Nov. Likability and faith figured in the other speech for Marco.

Santorum had no speakers.

Last on the list was Trump. There were speakers from both precincts and one covered issues I expected - strong, not politically correct, a fighter, but also touched on the issue that would be expanded on in the other speech. The other speaker had prepared notes and went at length in another direction. This was about ethanol and the lifeblood of the ag community - corn. Gov Branstad was invoked as to how Cruz's views on renewable energy would be a disaster for corn prices and the local economy. All politics is local and this was as local as it gets.

Next up, the vote.

[Torie]

I take it gay atheists were rather thin on the ground in the room. It seems like I would have felt, really, really, lonely there.

[muon2]

The site coordinator started to call for people to vote, but then remembered something she said at the outset. She wanted to let voters ask questions, so she opened the floor for that. However, it immediately turned into a debate between Cruz and Trump supporters about the ethanol issue, with some Cruz supporters arguing that it was sufficient to lift the cap on the amount of ethanol in fuel even if the supports were removed. The farmers were not in agreement, and the site coordinator had to cut it off since none of this was really about questions from the undecided.

So finally everyone filled out their small blue slips with their choice for the Pub nominee. The precinct volunteers went up and down the bleachers to collect the slips in two bags, one for each precinct. The volunteers took the slips up to the stage and each precinct rook to separating and counting the slips. Interested observers, including me, followed onto the stage to watch the count. Both groups were concerned that their counts didn't match the number of voters, but it was pointed out that some voters left early so the vote count would be under the number who showed up.

The smaller precinct finished first: Bush 3, Carson 8, Cruz 24, Rubio 25, Trump 16. Not only did Rubio win here, but the Fiorina supporter had switched, and I'd guess to Rubio. This was also the precinct with four early departures, who at least two if not all four were for Trump.

The larger precinct was done a couple minutes later: Bush 1, Carson 20, Christie 5, Cruz 55, Fiorina 2, Huckabee 2, Kasich 3, Paul 2, Rubio 31, Trump 30. The church group for Cruz carried the day in this precinct, but the turnout for Rubio was enough to top Trump here, too.

My job in the the caucus room was done so I thanked the precinct workers and went to the atrium to phone the vote counts to HQ in Des Moines. At 8:45 I was ready to go.

After I finished my call I saw the last Dems leaving their caucus. I had a nice chat with one of the Dems and got the overview on their proceedings. There was one precinct with 107 voters to determine three county delegates. The initial division had 50 for Clinton, 53 for Sanders, and 4 undecided. I asked about O'Malley but he said nobody stood up for him. In the second round the undecideds could have switched the majority to Clinton if all four went that way, but instead they all went to Sanders. That made the final result Sanders 2 and Clinton 1.

Just before 9 I left the caucus to head to the party after. That required a 45 minute drive to a bar in Iowa City where the students for Rubio had gathered. Interestingly, more of the students there were from IL and not IA. I hope that bodes well for our primary on Mar 15.

[cinyc]

Did the Cruz surrogates say anything about Carson allegedly dropping out of the race?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Were Cruz voters shaking their neighbors who didn't caucus?

[jimrtex]

The smaller precinct finished first: Bush 3, Carson 8, Cruz 24, Rubio 25, Trump 16. Not only did Rubio win here, but the Fiorina supporter had switched, and I'd guess to Rubio. This was also the precinct with four early departures, who at least two if not all four were for Trump.

The larger precinct was done a couple minutes later: Bush 1, Carson 20, Christie 5, Cruz 55, Fiorina 2, Huckabee 2, Kasich 3, Paul 2, Rubio 31, Trump 30. The church group for Cruz carried the day in this precinct, but the turnout for Rubio was enough to top Trump here, too.

This might better be placed in the Political Demographics board, but the precinct patter was interesting.

Linn County Republican Caucus

What is different about the northern part of the county vs. the southern part.

Cruz strongest in the north, Rubio in the southeast, and Trump to the south bleeding into the southern parts of Cedar Rapids and Marion. It is interesting that your two precincts were on the boundary line and split accordingly. Rubio also had wins in the northeastern and southeastern parts of Marion and western Cedar Rapids. Are these leafier areas?

I'd assume any influence from the University of Iowa would be more regional - that people in Linn County drive south for football and basketball games, but there would not be that much distinction from persons living in particular areas of the county.

You will see similar patterns in other areas - see the box of Tama-Benton-Iowa-Poweschiek, which form a continuous Trump precinct block in the center (east-west).

Incidentally, my Aunt and Uncle lived in Marion in the 1960s.

[muon2]

Did the Cruz surrogates say anything about Carson allegedly dropping out of the race?

No, and the Carson speaker had already gone before. The Cruz speakers were more focused on Trump (especially) and Rubio.

Were Cruz voters shaking their neighbors who didn't caucus?

My observation was that both the Cruz and Rubio campaigns were using calls and networks to get out voters who would not have been in the likely to caucus category for the polls. Those networks included use of church groups.

This might better be placed in the Political Demographics board, but the precinct patter was interesting.

Linn County Republican Caucus

What is different about the northern part of the county vs. the southern part.

Cruz strongest in the north, Rubio in the southeast, and Trump to the south bleeding into the southern parts of Cedar Rapids and Marion. It is interesting that your two precincts were on the boundary line and split accordingly. Rubio also had wins in the northeastern and southeastern parts of Marion and western Cedar Rapids. Are these leafier areas?

I'd assume any influence from the University of Iowa would be more regional - that people in Linn County drive south for football and basketball games, but there would not be that much distinction from persons living in particular areas of the county.

You will see similar patterns in other areas - see the box of Tama-Benton-Iowa-Poweschiek, which form a continuous Trump precinct block in the center (east-west).

Incidentally, my Aunt and Uncle lived in Marion in the 1960s.

SE Linn county has Mt Vernon, home to Cornell College. It's a liberal arts college and is politically liberal by IA standards. I mentioned my family connections to Lisbon and Mt Vernon, but no one in the Rubio groups where I was mentioned a college connection.

Within Cedar Rapids and Marion, my guess is that the pattern follows the economic status of the areas. Wealthier areas are more likely for Rubio, which would match the known correlation to education level.

[Torie]

Not that it matters on the Pub side, but it appears that there was nothing to prevent voters from voting in the wrong precinct. How big would you guess the "church group" was that voted in the precinct that Cruz carried? The most interesting that is just how powerful pastors apparently are in the Pub caucus. They seem to be able to carry their congregation with them in their preferences. They seem just about as good as the ward bosses of old in Chicago.

[muon2]

Not that it matters on the Pub side, but it appears that there was nothing to prevent voters from voting in the wrong precinct. How big would you guess the "church group" was that voted in the precinct that Cruz carried? The most interesting that is just how powerful pastors apparently are in the Pub caucus. They seem to be able to carry their congregation with them in their preferences. They seem just about as good as the ward bosses of old in Chicago.

The blue ballot slips were marked with the precinct name and handed out one per voter when they checked in. Even if a voter sat in the wrong area, the tellers would be able to see in which precinct the ballot belonged.