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  VA-Roanoke: Sanders mops the floor with GOPers, Clinton only ties Rubio/Cruz
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Author Topic: VA-Roanoke: Sanders mops the floor with GOPers, Clinton only ties Rubio/Cruz  (Read 2159 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: February 04, 2016, 04:27:34 am »

Encouraging news, but Roanoke College is a terrible pollster.

Anyway, the results:

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Hillary also has terrible favorable ratings in the state, but not Bernie:

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Methodology

Interviewing for The Roanoke College Poll was conducted by The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College in Salem, Va. between January 18 and January 26, 2016. Interviewing for this poll was extended due to weather. A total of 524 Virginia likely voters were interviewed. Telephone interviews were conducted in English. The random digit dial sample was obtained from ASDE Survey Sampler and includes both Virginia land line and cell phone exchanges so that all cell phone and residential landline telephone numbers, including unlisted numbers from Virginia exchanges, had a known chance of inclusion. Cell phones constituted 33 percent of the completed interviews.

Questions answered by the entire sample of 524 likely voters are subject to a sampling error of plus or minus approximately 4.3 percent at the 95 percent level of confidence. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples like the one used here, the results obtained should be no more than 4.3 percentage points above or below the figure that would be obtained by interviewing all Virginia residents who have a home telephone or a cell phone. Where the results of subgroups are reported, the sampling error is higher.

Quotas were used to ensure that different regions of the Commonwealth were proportionately represented. The data were statistically weighted for gender, race, age, and political party. Weighting was done to match the Virginia 2012 exit poll. The margin of error was not adjusted for design effects due to weighting.

http://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_feb_2016_presidential_politics
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2016, 04:34:35 am »

I would have rather seen primary numbers.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2016, 04:44:02 am »

New Poll: Virginia President by Roanoke College on 2016-01-26

Summary: D: 48%, R: 40%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2016, 04:59:10 am »

So much for Bernie not having a chance in the general.
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jfern
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« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2016, 05:36:33 am »

I want to believe that we'll have Bernie beating Trump by 22 points in Virginia in November, but I just can't.
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Skye
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« Reply #5 on: February 04, 2016, 06:09:57 am »

So much for Bernie not having a chance in the general.
29% don't even have an opinion on him.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2016, 07:27:22 am »

So much for Bernie not having a chance in the general.
29% don't even have an opinion on him.

No opinion or 'mixed', even. The numbers for Hillary and TRUMP are 13% and 15% respectively, which seem high for such household names.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #7 on: February 04, 2016, 08:30:29 am »

Cmon, Va is a Dem leaning state now, and Dems are winning it.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #8 on: February 04, 2016, 09:11:56 am »

Pretty sure a 3 point lead is not a tie.
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komodozer
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« Reply #9 on: February 04, 2016, 10:16:55 am »

August 11, 2006....a day that will live in infamy in Virginia electoral politics.

The day that the sleeping giant of Northern Virginia realized it had untapped political power.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #10 on: February 04, 2016, 10:44:06 am »

Thread title is misleading.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #11 on: February 04, 2016, 10:50:36 am »

Pretty sure a 3 point lead is not a tie.

It's a statistical tie because it's well within the margin of error (4.3%).

http://blogs.wsj.com/numbers/whats-a-statistical-tie-anyway-234/
http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2015/09/within-margin-of-error-doesnt-mean-what.html
https://faculty.elgin.edu/dkernler/statistics/ch09/9-1.html

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Statistical tie is an abuse of statistics. More likely than not if this poll were reran, Hillary would still lead. Of course if it was a bigger sample, we could be more sure that Hillary was leading.

Anyway you cut it, Virginia is a lost cause for the GOP.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #12 on: February 04, 2016, 11:09:16 am »

Dems are making all the right moves to win Va. Moves from tossup to Lean D in presidential campaign.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: February 04, 2016, 12:59:20 pm »

GOP disaster. Republicans haven't won the Presidency without Virginia since 1928. Democrats can win without it (1960, 1976, 1992, 1996).
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komodozer
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« Reply #14 on: February 04, 2016, 02:02:12 pm »

Purely anecdotal, but I live in NoVA, and Bernie is winning with the bumperstickers.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: February 04, 2016, 02:44:27 pm »

GOP disaster. Republicans haven't won the Presidency without Virginia since 1928. Democrats can win without it (1960, 1976, 1992, 1996).

I'm sorry, this is incredibly ignorant.  The three serious Republican contenders for the nomination all have unusually strong appeal to the West or Midwest and virtually no appeal to the federal employees/contractors with graduate degrees who swing elections in Virginia.

Just look at the Wisconsin polls.

Michigan is very different from Virginia in its politics. It is basically Minnesota or Wisconsin with Detroit attached instead of Milwaukee or the Twin Cities. Virginia is now basically Arkansas grafted onto Connecticut.

Want another state? Texas is basically Kansas grafted onto Florida.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: February 04, 2016, 03:19:31 pm »

Florida is about even. Kansas is a very strong R state. Austin, San Antonio, El Paso, Houston, and the Lower Rio Grande Valley, and Dallas vote as if big cities in Florida.  The rest of Texas is rather strong R.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #17 on: February 04, 2016, 03:20:38 pm »

All this analysis based off a Roanoke poll? Chill out guys.
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Still couldn't quell the Bel
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« Reply #18 on: February 05, 2016, 12:54:39 am »

I find it hard to believe that Sanders is doing that much better than Hillary in Virginia. He certainly wouldn't win it by that much. I'm fairly confident that VA will be decided by less than 5%.
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madelka
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« Reply #19 on: February 08, 2016, 10:37:30 pm »

Absolutely terrible numbers for the GOP. If Trump gets the nomination, he will have to concede VA. Right now I'd say VA is a lean D state, just like PA, WI, NV and NH.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #20 on: February 08, 2016, 11:17:41 pm »

Republicans are not gonna lose by ten points in Virginia period. Especially not against Bernie Sanders. Many non political folks I know just see Bernie as a well meaning old guy and don't know how out of the mainstream his views are.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #21 on: February 09, 2016, 02:07:28 am »
« Edited: February 09, 2016, 02:10:01 am by Da-Jon »

GOP probably are closer than this poll than what it is telling us. Its gonna be decided by 5 points.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #22 on: February 15, 2016, 12:18:48 pm »

August 11, 2006....a day that will live in infamy in Virginia electoral politics.

The day that the sleeping giant of Northern Virginia realized it had untapped political power.

Considering NOVA voted for Bush in 2004, the narrative that it *finally* outvoted the rest of VA (as if it'd been trying to but outnumbered) is just wrong.
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komodozer
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« Reply #23 on: February 15, 2016, 01:36:54 pm »

August 11, 2006....a day that will live in infamy in Virginia electoral politics.

The day that the sleeping giant of Northern Virginia realized it had untapped political power.

Considering NOVA voted for Bush in 2004, the narrative that it *finally* outvoted the rest of VA (as if it'd been trying to but outnumbered) is just wrong.


Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Arlington, and Alexandria all voted for Kerry, not Bush.

The George Allen/Jim Webb 2006 race only accelerated the Democratic trend, creating a surge of new Dem voters in the DC burbs.

The 2008 presidential race exacerbated this trend even further in a rather dramatic fashion, resulting in 2 entrenched liberal strongholds in the state: NOVA and the black vote in the Tidewater region.
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