NH-ARG daily tracking poll thread

[Mr. Morden]

I can’t access ARG’s website, but according to 538’s database, their latest poll of NH (conducted Feb. 2-3) is:

Dems

Sanders 54%
Clinton 38%

GOP

Trump 34%
Rubio 14%
Kasich 13%
Cruz 12%
Bush 8%
Christie 6%
Carson 2%
Fiorina 2%

[Sorenroy]

Already? The last one was conducted half a week ago.

Forward momentum for Sanders even following Iowa, poll says. Their last poll had a 49-43 lead for Sanders, this shows that lead increasing.

Change from last poll (pre-Iowa):

Democrats:
Sanders — +5
Clinton  — -5

O'Malley's supporters seem to have gone undecided on this one.

Republicans:
Rubio — +3
Cruz  — +2
Trump — ±0
Christie — ±0
Carson — ±0
Fiorina — ±0
Bush — -1
Kasich — -3

Huckabee, Santorum, and Paul made up 3% of the polling last time, so either they were included in the poll before they dropped out, or 2% of that support has gone undecided (or Gilmore/other).

[The Other Castro]

Horrible news, Clinton will likely win NH by 40 points now.

[mds32]

Rubio surge!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Phony Moderate]

Good news for both Bernie and TRUMP overall. ARG is a 'joke' pollster but the 'joke' pollsters were more accurate in Iowa than the 'respected' ones.

[Holmes]

ARG cooked up some numbers so theirs look similar to what the others polls are.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

LAVENOUS POLL!

ARG is on a roll after their great, well-within-MOE, showing in IA!

[Maxwell]

The GREAT Donald J. holds a WONDERFUL lead in this GLORIOUS ARG poll. Very Reputable!

The Marco Amnesty, Canada Cruz, and "The John Kasich Factor" are heading for defeat.

Thank you Chris Christie and Jeb? Bush!

[President Johnson]

No one stops THE DONALD!

Hope Kasich ends up in second in second place.

[Senator Cris]

The GREAT Donald J. holds a WONDERFUL lead in this GLORIOUS ARG poll. Very Reputable!

The Marco Amnesty, Canada Cruz, and "The John Kasich Factor" are heading for defeat.

Thank you Chris Christie and Jeb? Bush!

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=225232.msg4838786#msg4838786
LOL

[Eraserhead]

LAVENOUS POLL!

ARG is on a roll after their great, well-within-MOE, showing in IA!

Yeah, it's funny how they ended up being one of the best in Iowa. Maybe it was just a fluke but who knows...

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

LAVENOUS POLL!

ARG is on a roll after their great, well-within-MOE, showing in IA!

Yeah, it's funny how they ended up being one of the best in Iowa. Maybe it was just a fluke but who knows...

With experience comes great wisdom said Confushush!

[Senator Cris]

LAVENOUS POLL!

ARG is on a roll after their great, well-within-MOE, showing in IA!

Yeah, it's funny how they ended up being one of the best in Iowa. Maybe it was just a fluke but who knows...

Trump 33% 24%
Cruz 26% 28%
Rubio 11% 23%
Carson 7% 9%

Not exactly one of the best. Selzer, Quinnipiac, Emerson, Opinion Savvy and even Gravis did better than ARG.

[Eraserhead]

LAVENOUS POLL!

ARG is on a roll after their great, well-within-MOE, showing in IA!

Yeah, it's funny how they ended up being one of the best in Iowa. Maybe it was just a fluke but who knows...

Trump 33% 24%
Cruz 26% 28%
Rubio 11% 23%
Carson 7% 9%

Not exactly one of the best. Selzer, Quinnipiac, Emerson, Opinion Savvy and even Gravis did better than ARG.

I was referring to their numbers in the Democratic race.

[Lief 🗽]

Apparently this is a daily tracker, and TRUMP surged today!!!

TRUMP 36 (+2)
Rubio 15 (+1)
Kasich 14 (+1)
Cruz 12 (nc)
Bush 8 (nc)
Christie 6 (nc)

[Mr. Morden]

[Eraserhead]

An ARG daily tracker? Good lord.

[Holmes]

An ARG daily tracker? Good lord.

We're being punished.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Joking aside, has there been a post-Iowa poll where TRUMP's numbers noticeably decline?
He seems pretty stable in all of them. Mind you, most of them are from crappy pollsters. But even so some of them should have detected a movement.

[Eraserhead]

Joking aside, has there been a post-Iowa poll where TRUMP's numbers noticeably decline?
He seems pretty stable in all of them. Mind you, most of them are from crappy pollsters. But even so some of them should have detected a movement.

I think the fear is that his lead will have turned out to be a mirage like it was in Iowa.

Thankfully, I don't think that's likely since it's a primary instead of a caucus and because his lead is a lot bigger here.

That said, New Hampshire does have a history of terrible polling so who knows?

[Holmes]

I think maybe what happened in Iowa is that pollsters severely overrated Trump's chances. With the exception of Rubio's strong third place, the Cruz-Trump margin looked pretty similar to what the polls were saying before Trump's supposed final week surge, when Cruz was leading.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think maybe what happened in Iowa is that pollsters severely overrated Trump's chances. With the exception of Rubio's strong third place, the Cruz-Trump margin looked pretty similar to what the polls were saying before Trump's supposed final week surge, when Cruz was leading.

Indeed. If Selzer's penultimate poll (Cruz 25, TRUMP 22 and Clinton 42, Sanders 40) was actually their last one then they'd be hailed again as the gold standard.

[Tender Branson]

Apparently this is a daily tracker, and TRUMP surged today!!!

An ARG tracker showing Trump gaining ?

RIP, Donald.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Democratic race is unchanged 54-38.

[Cruzcrew]

Apparently this is a daily tracker, and TRUMP surged today!!!

An ARG tracker showing Trump gaining ?

RIP, Donald.