Perot doesn't drop out (user search)
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  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Perot doesn't drop out (search mode)
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Author Topic: Perot doesn't drop out  (Read 3665 times)
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« on: May 28, 2005, 10:27:26 PM »

If Perot hadn't dropped out, I think that the extra votes he would have gotten would have largely from the Democrats not the Republicans.

A shift of 10% of the GOP vote and 20% of Denocratic vote produces a map like this (I special-cased DC to avoid the impossible result of th Dems geting less than 70% of the vote there:


231 EV (34.4% PV) Clinton/Gore
220 EV (33.7% PV) Bush/Quayle
 87  EV (31.3% PV) Perot/Stockdale

Assuming no shenanigans before the EV is cast by the electors, which may be a lot to ask for. I foresee a possible deadlocked House which could delay or prevent the election of a President while Acting President Gore is running things pending the election of a President if the GOP decides to be contentious, and with Minority Leader Gingrich, I think that if they can block a President Clinton they will.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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Posts: 42,144
United States


« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2005, 12:07:05 AM »

Assuming no shenanigans before the EV is cast by the electors, which may be a lot to ask for. I foresee a possible deadlocked House which could delay or prevent the election of a President while Acting President Gore is running things pending the election of a President if the GOP decides to be contentious, and with Minority Leader Gingrich, I think that if they can block a President Clinton they will.

How would the House be deadlocked? I'm sure the Democrats had a majority of House delegations.

OK, Wikipedia has a nice list for the 103rd Congress organized by state so lets see.

D - Alabama
R - Alaska
T - Arizona
T - Arkansas
D - California
R - Colorado
T - Connecticit
R - Delaware
R - Florida
D - Georgia

D - Hawaii
T - Idaho
D - Illinois
D - Indiana
R - Iowa
T - Kansas
D - Kentucky
D - Louisiana
T - Maine
T - Maryland

D - Massachusetts
D - Michigan
D - Minnesota
D - Mississippi
D - Missouri
D - Montana
R - Nebraska
T - Nevada
T - New hampshire
D - New Jersey

R - New Mexico
D - New York
D - North Carolona
D - North Dakota
D - Ohio
D - Oklahoma
D - Oregon
D - Pennsylvania
T - Rhode Island
T - South Carolina

T - South Dakota
D - Tennessee
D - Texas
D - Utah
D - Vermont
D - Virginia
D - Washington
D - West Virginia
R - Wisconsin
R - Wyoming

Total D:29 R:9 T:12

That's with the actual 103rd congress tho.

Five states, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Utah are only the loss of one Freshman Democrat who was not relected for the104th Congress from being a tied or Republican delegation.
Also, if Hayes makes his party switch a Congress earlier, Louisiana is a tied delegation for the 103rd Congress instead of a Democratic one.  That makes 6 Democratic delegations that could concevably be butterflied away by the side effect of Perot staying in the race.
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