A proposed analogy
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Zanas
Zanas46
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« on: February 10, 2016, 04:09:12 AM »

French Socialist primary, 2006.

An old male politician, Fabius, that's been on the political scene for ages, makes some kind of a comeback looking to aim at radical left-wing votes while not actually being as left-wing as he's hyped up to be, and not explaining quite clearly how he would manage to pass his left-wing agenda through legislation.

On the other side, a not-so-young but younger female politician, Royal, who's also been on the political scene for a couple of decades, is insurgent and takes the "we can makes all things right and also I'm a woman" approach, and entertains a love/hate relationship with the media who both clearly routs for her and wants to slit her throat.

Royal ends up winning the nomination, with a somewhat decent showing by Fabius.

I was a Trotskyist at the time, a hopeful naive young 21-year-old voter. While obviously not a member of the PS, I was preferring that Fabius won, because it would move the whole political spectrum to the left. I was the closest thing you could get to a Sandernista.

When Royal got the nomination, however, I ended voting for her in the Presidential runoff, not enthusiastically, but the possibility that she might be the first female president was a little plus. So based on that wonderful sample size of one, I'm pretty sure most of the young Sandernistas will actually turn out for Clinton in the end. She is slowly moving her tone, if not her agenda, to her left to get them.

Of course the analogy goes on to point out that Royal lost to Sarkozy (Rubio, Cruz ?), but I think it has more to do with the fact that she was not really a very good candidate to begin with, like Clinton, than with her being a woman.

I'm not saying Clinton will lose in November, but she might. I'm not saying Fabius would have won President in 2007, nor that Sanders would win in November, but they might.
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